Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework
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Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) Worldwide Joint Training and Scheduling Conference 27 August 2009. Why TCAPF? What is TCAPF? TCAPF Process TCAPF Analysis Current Use Next Steps Program of Instruction. Agenda. Why TCAPF?. Typical Metrics

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Agenda 4257722

Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework(TCAPF)Worldwide Joint Training and Scheduling Conference

27 August 2009


Agenda

Why TCAPF?

What is TCAPF?

TCAPF Process

TCAPF Analysis

Current Use

Next Steps

Program of Instruction

Agenda


Why tcapf
Why TCAPF?

Typical Metrics

Increased number of Afghan security forces

Increased number of insurgents killed

Kill or Capture

Long-term Development

DoD’s competency

USAID’s competency

TCAPF

  • Typical Metrics

  • 80% of Afghan children attend school

  • 3,000 km of all-weather roads

  • 85% access to basic health care

INSTABILITY

  • Outcomes (Between 2007-2008)

  • 39% increase in civilians killed in ISAF military operations

  • 33% increase in IEDs

  • 119% increase in attacks on ASF

  • 36% decrease in support for the Afghan Government (since 2006)

  • Decreased NGO presence in South and East

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What is tcapf
What is TCAPF?

  • A framework to identify, prioritize, and mitigate the causes of instability in an AO by…

  • …analyzing 4 types of information…

    • Operational Environment (PMESII)

    • Cultural Environment (Key groups, Dispute resolution mechanisms…)

    • Drivers of Stability/Instability (Grievances, Key actors, Means & Motivations)

    • Local perceptions (versus our assumptions)

  • …in order to develop stabilization activities that…

    • Increase local support for the government

    • Decrease local support for anti-government forces

    • Increase local institutional and societal capability and capacity

  • …by focusing on the activities’ impact, not simply output


Agenda 4257722

Measure Impact

Implement Activity

Assess

Decide

Choose Monitoring Methods

Direct

Plan

Direct

Assess

Execute

Assess

Assess

Determine Output Indicators

Plan

Identify Activities

Determine Impact Indicators

TCAPF Process

Evaluation

Implementation

Collection

MDMP

“Measure”

“See”

Collect / Log Local Perceptions

POPULATION

Identify & Prioritize Objectives

“Understand”

“Act”

Choose Monitoring Methods

Design

5

Analysis


Process tcapf questionnaire

The Tactical Conflict Questionnaire

Standardized questionnaire used at the tactical level to facilitate discussions with locals and identify causes of instability

Only four questions:

“Have there been changes in the village population in the last year”?

“What are the most important problems facing the village?”

“Whom do you believe can solve your problems?”

“What should be done first to help the village?”

Always ask “WHY”?

Process – TCAPF Questionnaire

We see things from this guy’s perspective

BUT through TCAPF…

We can see them from this guy’s

TCAPF Focus is always LOCAL

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Who do you believe can solve your problems
“Who Do You BelieveCan Solve Your Problems?”

9


What should be done first to help the village
“What Should be Done Firstto Help the Village?”

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Agenda 4257722

3-509th Weekly District Snapshot

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Agenda 4257722

Current Use

COIN Academy

Nation-Wide

RC

SOUTH

RC

EAST

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Proposed next steps
Proposed Next Steps

Create centralized, UNCLASSIFIED TCAPF database

Implement across U.S. and Coalition forces in Afghanistan – HQs, Brigades, SF, CA, MTT/PTT

Expand among civilian agencies in Afghanistan – USAID, DOS, USDA, Coalition counterparts, Implementing Partners, Afghan ministries

Expand to all PRTs

Establish Stabilization Advisors at each BN, PRT, and above

Apply tactical patience to maintain quality as system builds

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Tcapf program of instruction
TCAPF Program of Instruction

  • Two to three days of classroom instruction

    • Collection – Companies down to Team Leader level

    • Analysis, Design, Evaluation – Battalion staffs and above

  • Squad STX Lanes – 1 day per company

    • Collecting TCAPF data from role players

    • Follow-up Key Leader Engagement

  • Company Cmd/BN Staff STX lane – half day

    • Analyze and Design activities based on collected TCAPF data

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