Designing the Future Design for Future Needs 28 th January 2002 at Design Council

1. Designing the FutureDesign for Future Needs 28th January 2002at Design Council Stephen Aitken Foresight Co-ordinator for London 07866 361233 stephen.aitken@theStrateg-e.com

2. My objectives tonight • Provide some challenging questions for discussion – provocative and sceptical • Outline the Foresight Programme in UK and advertise Young Foresight. My job - take the Foresight findings to business (including designers) and academe in London

3. History and Future of UK Foresight • 1995 -15 Panels & Delphi survey • 1999 -13 panels and reports • 2001 - Toolkit and trained facilitators • 2002 on - a few rolling focused research programmes • 2003 - Web communities and real time foresight (I hope) Foresight in Europe, USA, Japan,..

4. Ageing population Crime prevention Manufacturing 2020 Materials Chemicals Defence, Aerospace & Systems Retail & Consumer Services Financial Services Information, Communications & Media Built Environment and transport Energy & Natural Environment Healthcare Food Chain and Crops for Industry 13 Foresight panels and reports All these have relevant information for designers

5. Designers should use Foresight,should Foresight use designers? • Crime prevention – Cracking crime thro’ design (DC) • Ageing population – Living Longer (DC) • Were designers involved in 13 Panels and task forces • Very few – < 1% of members UK Foresight has not really used designers, But has it used design thinking and processes?

6. Crime prevention - used design thinking • Products CRAVED – Concealable, Removable, Available, Valuable, Enjoyable, Disposable. • Electronic services EVADED – Enduring, Valuable, Available, Distributable, Easy to use, Desirable. • Focus science and technology on crime reduction • Crime costs £50bn per annum • >100 people on panel, only one designer (Alison Huxley DC) • Design Council “Cracking Crime through Design”

7. Foresight workshops for SMEs • To develop new Visions, goals, strategies and action plans • Uses toolkit • visioning, lifecycles, goals, capabilities, SWOT, STEEP, brainstorming, alternatives, force field, contingency • One or two day facilitated workshop Does not get to the level of design The majority of today’s SMEs will not exist in 2016, and the majority that will exist in 2010 do not exist today

8. Young Foresight (an advert) • Aimed at 14 yr olds doing Design & Technology at school • Design something for the future – no constraints • Just launched 2001 • Needs mentors from industry – designers(could add CAD as well)!

9. Innovation process involves all functions “The successful exploitation of new ideas” R & D Strategy policy Marketing Design Suppliers Production Ideas from anywhere - but incremental investment process Sales Customers

10. Segment definition Industry, geography, size Current end use Proposed end use Project specification Frequency of purchase & use Buyer and user identification Marketing strategy Product, price, promotion, distribution Perceptual maps, efficiency frontiers Working with other disciplines- Marketing to Design Process Marketing Design design processes ???

11. Questions • How can we get designers (corporate and agency) involved in using Foresight findings, then designing the future? • What relevant tools and techniques do designers use that others don’t use for developing scenarios? • Is forecasting function more important than forecasting form? • How should designers work with other disciplines on foresight? • Scenarios are just possibilities – is it worth investing the extra time to “design” them? Would design create design concepts, prototypes or even products? • How far ahead can design usefully take us? 5 yrs? 50 yrs ? • Would design bring the Future closer? Make it safer? • How would we deliver the new design outputs to the wider markets? What markets? Workshops? Web-shops? • Will / how will adding design help companies and countries determine their global competitive strategies?