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Class 17: Lomborg. P. Brian Fisher CofC : POLS 405 Spring 2010. Vid. Lomborg , “ Our Priorities For Saving the World ” (17m). Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase. Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature.

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Class 17 lomborg

Class 17: Lomborg

P. Brian Fisher

CofC: POLS405

Spring 2010

Class 17 lomborg

  • Lomborg,

    “Our Priorities For Saving the World” (17m)

Lomborg s arguments on temperature increase
Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase

  • Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature.

  • Lomborg: True, there will be more heat deaths from GCC, but there will also be fewer cold deaths (more people die from cold than heat).

  • Many deaths are from heat-island effects in cities, and we can alleviate them, by planting more trees (to create more moisture) and by creating more reflective surfaces

Lomborg on kyoto
Lomborg on Kyoto

  • Temperature decrease from Kyoto measures would be 0.1°F by 2050 and 0.3°F by 2100—this is insignificant

  • Without a Post-Kyoto agreement, the effects from the 2008-2012 would only be reduce temp for 7 days.

  • Costs: could be as high as $180b/yr (based on 2008 data) or 0.5% global GDP

  • Lomborg: World will get more efficient as technology increases (e.g. In US, avg car has “improved its mileage by 67% since 1973.”

Lomborg s costs of gcc
Lomborg’s Costs of GCC

  • Cutting carbon dioxide costs about $20 per ton and it only does $2 worth of good.

    • McKinnsey Cost Abatement: They concluded that we could stabilize at 450ppm at zero net cost.

    • At 450ppm, peaking now, would likely result in temp increase of less than 3°C, and most likely about 2.5°C

  • Lomborgest that to stabilize at 2.7°C would require $84t.

  • Benefits wouldn’t outpace costs until 2250.

Lomborg s proposal
Lomborg’s Proposal

  • Massive investments in R&D

    • Commit 0.05% of GDP

    • Should be enough to keep temp from increasing beyond 5°F (from today).

  • Avoid emission cuts—waste of $$

    • b/c “global warming damages run about 1% GDP, while cost is at 2% GDP

    • Stern: Cost is 1% GDP while benefits are 20% (giving increasing costs of inaction)

Evidence suggests
Evidence suggests…

  • 1. Understanding of GCC is shaped by exaggerated accounts by media

  • 2. we are overly obsessed with regulating CO2—we should consider the positive effects from increased warming

  • 3. GCC is not the only issue we need to tackle. There are other more important priorities.

Other issues and facts
Other Issues and Facts

Every year…

  • 4m die from malnutrition

    • $12b could halve the deaths

  • 3m from HIV/AIDS

  • 2.5m from air pollution

  • 2m from lack of clean drinking water

  • 1m from malaria

    • $13b would halve the # of deaths.

Global priority list from lomborg s copenhagen consesus
Global Priority List from Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consesus

Millennium development goals
Millennium Development Goals

  • Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

  • Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

  • Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

  • Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

  • Goal 5: Improve maternal health

  • Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

  • Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

  • Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development