Estimation of unrecorded employment using administrative data

1. Estimation of unrecorded employment using administrative data Ágota Scharle Bálint Szabó Ministry of Finance 6.12.2007Budapest

2. Outline Aim and estimation strategyData sources Main resultsUnresolved issues and further work

3. Aim and estimation strategy • estimate unrecorded employment • assume that LFS data captures {all employment} • compare to Pension insurance captures{recorded employment} • extension to Augusztinovics-Köllő 2007

4. Data sources • LFS • Quarterly survey of Hungarians aged 15-74 • About 60 thousand observations • ILO definition of employment • Age, sex, occupation, region, etc • Pension records [ONYF] • Sample of administrative records on total population • about 140 thousand observations of adults aged 15-74 • pension contribution as employee or self-employed • Age, sex, occupation (employees only), region Both: for the years 2001-2004 and panel

5. Data sources 2 • LFS • Annual average of quarterly data • 6 main categories of type of employment:employee (2) or self-employed (4) • average of those working on reference week in 4 quarters • Pension records [ONYF] • 28 categories by type of employment contract • length of contract (days) • average employed population: total days/366

6. Main results: employment rate

7. men all ages rate higher for over 50

8. women on maternity or over 60

9. aged over 50

10. in agriculture or urbanised areas

11. in services to households (employees)

12. Unresolved issues … Robustness checks: • Definition of employment (OEP data?) • Weights • Grouping of occupations Cleaning admin data Benedek Dóra - Újraelosztás és mikroszimuláció

13. …and further work • time series for 2001-2004 • decomposing changes from 2001 to 2004 • multivariate analysis for sub-regions? • use wage data in admin records • use panel nature of admin records(flows into pension by occupation, flows into/from AMK) • ?

14. Thank you for your attention.

15. Age distribution in samples