Assessing the Contribution of Heliospheric Imaging in Improving Space Weather Prediction SHINE Session 6 Simon Plunkett and Doug Biesecker Thursday Morning and Afternoon
Goals of Session • (I)CME’s have now been observed from a variety of viewpoints both along and away from the Sun-Earth line, allowing us to directly trace the propagation all the way from near the Sun to the Earth. • It has become common to predict, using various methods, the propagation direction, speed, size and time of arrival of the CMEs at Earth. • What improvements in forecasting CME’s at Earth have been made that we can find community consensus on? • Focused around 6 questions (with an implicit 7th question), and another set of NOAA derived questions.
What are the questions I? • What are the improvements in predicting the CME arrival time and speed using SECCHI and SMEI? - How can we assess the degree of improvement? • What is the optimum CME shape for input to operational models such as ENLIL? Cone, fluxrope model, something else? • What is the best distance range for a successful Time-of-Arrival prediction? When the CME reaches the edge of the coronagraph field of view (~15Rs), or the inner heliosphere (say 60 Rs)? • What constitutes a successful prediction?
What are the questions II? • How does the ambient environment affect the predictions (e.g., through drag, solar wind interactions, multiple interacting CMEs)? • Are there conditions existing models do not or cannot account for? • For operational purposes, is imaging from a platform away from the Sun-Earth line (e.g., from L5) sufficient or do we still need imagers along the Sun-Earth line? • Is an empirical approach, based on elongation-time measurements, sufficient for operational prediction or do we still need to deploy MHD modeling? • What if we didn’t have any space based assets? How well would we do?
Additional QuestionsSpecific from NOAA/SWPC • How well can we do if we consider resources like radio observations, including the MWA, muon detectors? • How would you iterate between data and models? • How important is a magnetograph at L5? Elsewhere? • Should we have a SHINE challenge on a set of events, similar to the GEM challenge? • The STEREO Space Weather E-mail list is doing this informally.
Known Contributions • Curt de Koning – geometric triangulation and polarimetric localization • Ying Liu – geometric triangulation • Craig DeForest – high resolution HI imagery • Tim Howard – comparison of Feb 2011 CME predictions, TH model applied to >40 events • Brian Wood – addresses Question #3 • Vic Pizzo or Biesecker – issues with initiating MHD models (cf. June 21, 2011 CME) • Others?
This is not AGU • This is SHINE. You may not give an AGU talk or really any talk. • Make your point. • Use 1-3 slides to do it. • Make your point, again. • Discuss it. • Be sure to tell us which question you wish to address. Please, let’s try to deal with each question in order.