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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Sharad Joshi Monterey Institute of International Studies November 13, 2009 PowerPoint Presentation
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Sharad Joshi Monterey Institute of International Studies November 13, 2009 Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Introduction Why is this such a crucial issue? Nuclear weapons on both sides + deep rooted conflict Prospect of horizontal proliferation

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia Sharad Joshi Monterey Institute of International Studies November 13, 2009


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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South AsiaSharad JoshiMonterey Institute of International StudiesNovember 13, 2009
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

Introduction

  • Why is this such a crucial issue?
    • Nuclear weapons on both sides + deep rooted conflict
    • Prospect of horizontal proliferation
    • Nuclear weapons Terrorist groups
  • Rationale for nuclear weapons
    • Security threat perceptions
      • India vis-à-vis Pakistan and China
      • Pakistan vis-à-vis India
    • Nationalistic, domestic, scientific-bureaucratic reasons

Jammu & Kashmir

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

  • Stability/Instability Paradox
      • Strategic stability
        • Increased violence at sub-strategic level
      • Strategic instability
        • Increased violence at sub-strategic level
    • Helps link non-state violence and nuclear postures in South Asia
regional nuclear challenges south asia
Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Currently
    • Nuclear weapons deployed by both
    • Deterrence posture (stable/unstable?)
    • Periodic crises situations (e.g. 2001/02) involved nuclear threats
  • Nonproliferation regime positions
    • Both India and Pakistan outside Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
      • Debate in India over CTBT
    • Varied positions on Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT)
      • Pakistan’s problems with FMCT
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

  • Expansion of specific capabilities
    • Continued production of fissile material
    • Continued development of more lethal delivery systems
      • Introduction of cruise missiles, longer-range ballistic missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles
    • Consideration of missile defense systems
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Capabilities and Strategies
    • India
      • Tests in 1974, 1998
      • Estimated 40-50 nuclear devices
      • Ballistic missile capability – Prithvi, Agni I&II
      • Acquisition of cruise missiles (BrahMos)
      • Deterrence strategy
        • No first use doctrine

Prithvi (India)

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Capabilities and Strategies
    • India
      • Quest for ‘credible minimum deterrent’
        • Agni III long range ballistic missile
        • Submarine launch capability sought
          • Nuclear submarine (INS Arihant) launched in July 2009
        • Approval for Agni-V
          • Restricted increase in range-5,000 km
      • Testing of missile defense systems

Launch of Sagarika/K-15, Feb. ‘08

Agni-III test, May ‘08

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Capabilities
    • Pakistan
      • Tests in 1998
      • Refusal to adopt a no-first use policy
        • Put forward a “No War pact”
      • Credible minimum doctrine
      • Estimated material for 50-110nuclear devices.
      • Missile capability covers most of India – Ghauri, Shaheen
        • Development of cruise missiles – Babur  nuclear delivery role
      • F-16 deal with U.S.

November 16, 2006 photo showing

then Pakistani PM Shaukat Aziz in

front of the Ghauri V (Hatf)

missile just before it was test fired.

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

Source: CNS

Source: Dept. of Atomic Energy, Government of India

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Capabilities and Strategies
    • Pakistan
      • Concern over security of nuclear weapons
    • Both countries:
      • Development of cruise missiles
        • Pakistan – Babur, Ra’ad (nuclear capable)
        • India – BrahMos, Nirbhay
      • Implications for military strategy
        • How do cruise missiles fit into broader thinkingon security and deterrence issues in South Asia?

Babur cruise missile (Pakistan)

BrahMos cruise missile (India)

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Capabilities and Strategies
    • Missile defense
      • Two tests by India in 2006/2007
      • Quest for cruise missile defense
  • Nuclear Confidence Building Measures
    • Missile test notification
      • no cruise missiles
    • Agreement for reducing risk of nuclear accidents
    • Exchange of nuclear facilities lists

India’s Endo-atmospheric

interceptor test, Dec. 2007

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement
    • Current situation
      • IAEA safeguards agreement approved in August 2008; signed in March 2009
      • NSG approval in September 2008
        • Nuclear Deal with France – Sept. 30, 2008
      • U.S. Congressional approval for bilateral pact in October 2008
    • Benefits for India
      • Nuclear technology, materials from external suppliers
      • Domestic sources of uranium can be diverted to military
      • Enhanced energy supply
      • De facto approval of nuclear status

IAEA Board of Governors

meeting in Vienna on August 1,

2008, to consider the Indian

safeguards agreement.

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement
    • U.S. goals
      • Strategic partnership with India
      • Some regulation of India’s nuclear facilities
      • Business incentives for U.S. nuclear industry
      • Will lessen India’s dependence on fossil fuels
      • Unstated objective: Building India as a regional counterweight to China
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement
    • Negative Consequences
      • Breaks the nonproliferation regime
        • Bad precedent
        • More difficult to stop DPRK and Iran
      • Pakistan’s quest for similar agreement
      • China’s proposed nuclear assistance to Pakistan
      • Allows India to produce more fissile material
        • Could actually stabilize India’s nuclear capabilities?
    • Indian argument
      • India needs to be part of nuclear energy trade
      • Regime ineffective anyway
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Proliferation From South Asia
    • A.Q. Khan network
      • Evolution from an import role to an export role also
  • Lingering questions
    • Has the network (or similar networks) been rounded up?
    • Pakistan political and military establishment involved?
      • Important implications
    • What all was transferred?
  • Introduction of more stringent export controls by Pakistan
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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia

Export side of the A.Q. Khan proliferation network

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Security of Pakistan’s Nuclear weapons
    • Growing Pakistani nuclear arsenal + expansion of delivery systems
    • Political instability and violence
    • Implications for security of nuclear weapons and materials.
      • E.g., meetings in 2001 between Pakistani scientists and Al Qaeda leadership
    • Technological hurdle towards a workable nuclear device, i.e., intent does not necessarily equal capability
      • But, dirty bomb possible
      • Psychological effect of nuclear materials use

Source: McClatchy

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Striking at ungoverned spaces and weak states
  • Increasing attacks in vicinityof nuclear facilities
  • Instances of kidnapping of nuclear personnel
    • Unclear about motivations
  • Signifies potential inadvertent or deliberate access to nuclearpersonnel and facilities
  • Security of Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons

Source: The New York Times

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Regional Nuclear Challenges: South Asia
  • Conclusions
    • Expansion of nuclear capabilities and changes in Indian position in nonproliferation system
    • South Asian proliferation also has to be seen in context of Asia-Pacific power dynamics, especially the rivalry between China and the U.S.
    • India-Pakistan nuclear stalemate leading to changes in conventional strategies? – e.g., BrahMos
    • Importance of Confidence Building Measures in other areas of contention, e.g., Siachen glacier. Can facilitate Nuclear CBMs.
    • Security of nuclear materials and facilities from terrorist and proliferation networks remains a key problem.