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Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft) PowerPoint Presentation
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Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft)

Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft)

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Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft)

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  1. Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft) Dr. David F. Von Hippel Nautilus Institute Senior Associate Prepared for the “DPRK Energy Expert Study Group Meeting”, Stanford University, California June 26 - 27, 2006

  2. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION • Preparation and Analysis of Energy Paths for the DPRK—National and Regional • Goals and philosophy in preparing paths • Overall Approach and Scope • Descriptions of Paths Considered • “Recent Trends” Path • “Redevelopment” Path • “Sustainable Development” Path • “Regional Alternative” Path DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  3. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION • Selected Details of Modeling Approach by Path • Selected Draft Results of Analysis of Future Energy Paths for the DPRK • Energy Demand • Fuel Supply/Transformation • Energy Imports and Exports • Costs • Environmental Emissions • Initial Lessons Learned from Analysis, and Next Steps in Analysis of Energy Futures for the DPRK DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  4. PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS • Goals of Paths Analysis • Assemble plausible, internally-consistent alternative energy paths for the DPRK, based on the best information available • Explore, in a quantitative manner whenever possible (but not exclusively) relative energy security implications of different paths, including implications of NEA energy sector cooperation • Use energy paths as focus, starting point for discussions of how regional/other actors might assist in sustainable re-development of DPRK energy sector DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  5. PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS • Philosophy in Paths Preparation/Evaluation • Design paths that are plausible, and, under the right conditions, potentially achievable • At the same time, paths shown are not intended in any way to judge what should happen • Paths are built upon best, most internally-consistent DPRK information we can find, but there are undoubtedly many inaccuracies in the analysis • We look forward to working with DPRK colleagues to improve analysis, make more applicable • Paths are therefore a starting point for further discussion and analysis DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  6. PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS • Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation • Start with DPRK LEAP dataset that includes several paths evaluated briefly in previous work • Update data set to reflect most recent Nautilus estimates of 1990 - 2005 DPRK energy use (overall analysis period for paths, 1990 to 2030) • Develop overall “themes” for several (4 -5 or more) paths to be evaluated • Identify specific assumptions for use in implementing the themes within LEAP • Modify paths so that all paths have the same 2006 energy picture DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  7. PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHS • Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation • Prepare demand-side data entries (and document assumptions in Excel workbook) • Enter demand-side assumptions in LEAP • De-bug demand-side datasets • Prepare approximate supply-side data entries (and document in Excel workbook) • Enter supply-side assumptions in LEAP, calculate, and modify parameters so that supply and demand balance • Enter cost and environmental data for all paths • Run all paths, check results, debug, re-run, and evaluate relative demand, transformation, cost, environmental results of paths DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  8. DPRK Energy Paths Considered POLITICAL STALEMATE IS…. NOT RESOLVED RESOLVED “REDEVELOPMENT” CASE:Revitalization, re-mechanization, infrastructure upgraded “RECENT TRENDS” CASE: Economy opens a very little, aid flows modest, infrastructure erodes “SUSTAINABLE DEV.” CASE:Redevelopment plus emphasis on energy efficiency, renewables “REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE” CASE:Redevelopment plus regional projects “COLLAPSE” CASE: Economy and regime fails (not quantitatively modeled) DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  9. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Redevelopment” Path • Used as National Reference path for DPRK • Current political stalemate solved within next few years, DPRK receives international assistance/cooperation in redevelopment • Industrial sector is revitalized, but mostly not rebuilt as it was before • More iron and steel from scrap, efficiency improvements in heavy industry sectors • Industrial restructuring, with emphasis on industries such as textiles, fertilizer • Natural gas begins to be used in industry ~2015 DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  10. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Redevelopment” Path (continued) • Considerable increase in new light-industrial production (IT, auto parts, joint ventures…) • Increase in diesel, electricity use for light industry • Agricultural sector re-mechanized • Cropped area decreases, but electricity, oil use in agriculture increases (coal/biomass use decreases) • Increase in residential electricity consumption • Commercial sector expands rapidly • Transport sector, particularly personal transport, expands markedly DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  11. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Redevelopment” Path (continued) • Investment in new electricity infrastructure • New coal, gas combined-cycle, small hydro • Some rehabilitation of older plants, particularly hydro; existing coal plants retired over time • Simpo reactors completed 2013 (export power) • Re-investment in East Coast refinery • Natural gas, first as LNG, begins to play a role in powering industry, electricity, cities starting ~2012 • Smaller LNG terminal built (Nampo?), part of output exported DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  12. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Recent Trends” Path • Assumes that current political difficulties remain, or are addressed only very slowly • DPRK economy opens a very little, aid flows modest, infrastructure erodes • Very gradual increase in industrial output • Transport activity increases slowly • Civilian auto transport grows most • Residential energy demand increases slowly • Electricity gradually more available • Some agricultural re-mechanization, incr. inputs DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  13. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Recent Trends” Path (continued) • Transmission and distribution losses remain high • 10 MW of small hydro power plants added/yr • Total capacity at existing hydro and oil-fired power plants changes little over time • Coal-fired capacity meets net electricity demand after hydro, oil-fired plant output factored in • Simpo nuclear reactors not completed • Oil/oil products imported (except HFO) at year 2000 levels • West Coast refineries continue to operate DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  14. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Sustainable Development” Path • Same energy services as “Redevelopment” Path—with same demographic assumptions, economic output—but… • Applies energy efficiency, renewable energy, other measures, in an aggressive fashion • Upgrading of industrial infrastructure goes above average standards to high-efficiency international standards • Rapid phase-out of existing coal-fired power plants. • Earlier addition of LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal and gas CC (combined cycle) generating plants DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  15. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Sustainable Development” Path (continued) • Costs • Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses, transformation processes, and fuels whose use changes relative to the Redevelopment case DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  16. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Regional Alternative” Path • Demand-sector Modifications • As a result of regional cooperation, efficiency improvement targets reached two years earlier at costs 10% less than in Sustainable Development path • Transformation-sector Modifications • Gas pipeline from RFE begins operation in 2011; 3% of gas used in DPRK initially, 10% by 2020, 15% by 2030 • DPRK gets $10 million/yr “rent” for hosting the pipeline • Larger LNG facility installed (also shared with ROK) • Power line from the Russian Far East through the • Participation in regional cooperative activities in energy DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  17. DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED “Regional Alternative” Path (continued) • Transformation-sector Modifications (continued) • Cooperation in renewable energy technologies yield earlier deployment,10% reduction in cost of wind, small hydro technologies • Last of existing coal-fired plants retired by 2020 • Sustainable Development/Regional Alternative Path Costs • Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses, transformation processes, and fuels whose use changes relative to the Redevelopment case DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  18. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  19. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  20. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  21. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  22. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  23. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  24. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  25. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  26. DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  27. LESSONS LEARNED/NEXT STEPS IN PATHS ANALYSIS • Lessons learned: • Significant cost, environmental benefits to helping DPRK achieve sustainable development/regional alternative-type paths • Next Steps • Comprehensive energy security analysis • Evaluate alternative nuclear energy paths • Engage DPRK delegations in modeling exercises (requiring capacity and database building….) DPRK Energy Expert Study Group

  28. THANK YOU! DPRK Energy Expert Study Group