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Updated DPRK Energy Balance (Draft) and Work to Be Done

Updated DPRK Energy Balance (Draft) and Work to Be Done. Dr. David F. Von Hippel and Dr. Jungmin Kang Nautilus Institute Senior Associates Prepared for the “ DPRK Energy Expert Study Group Meeting ”, Stanford University, California June 26 - 27, 2006.

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Updated DPRK Energy Balance (Draft) and Work to Be Done

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  1. Updated DPRK Energy Balance (Draft) and Work to Be Done Dr. David F. Von Hippel and Dr. Jungmin Kang Nautilus Institute Senior Associates Prepared for the “DPRK Energy Expert Study Group Meeting”, Stanford University, California June 26 - 27, 2006

  2. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION • Background to Nautilus DPRK Energy Analysis • DPRK Energy Balance Update • Overall Approach • Recent Trends in DPRK Economy • Database Updates • Overview of Draft Results: Energy Supply/Demand • Next Steps in Update DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  3. PREVIOUS AND ONGOING NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK ENERGY WORK • 1986-94: Nuclear Weapons/Proliferation Issues • 1992-97: UN Energy-Environment Missions • 1995: DPRK Energy Supply/Demand and Energy Efficiency Study • 1996: KEDO-HFO Supply and Demand Study • 1997: Supply and Demand for Electricity in the DPRK--1990, 1996, and Future Paths • 1997-02: DPRK Village Energy Project, Study Tours, and Proposal Collaboration • 2002: Update to 2000 base year (with KEEI) • 2006: Update to 2005 base year (with KEEI) DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  4. NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK ENERGY ANALYSIS OVERALL APPROACH • Obtain as much information as possible about the DPRK economy, energy sector from media sources, literature sources, visitors to the DPRK, trade statistics, market observers, other sources • Information used includes quantitative, anecdotal • Use available information, comparative analysis, and judgment to assemble a coherent and consistent pictureof the DPRK energy sector • Use physical measures and intensities whenever possible DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  5. NAUTILUS INSTITUTE DPRK ENERGY ANALYSIS OVERALL APPROACH • Think about possible future paths for DPRK energy sector/economy, what changes (national, regional, global) might bring those paths about, implication of changes for end-use, infrastructure • Including consideration of role of DPRK in regional energy economy • Role of ROK in future energy paths, including additional energy sector “connections” on the Korean peninsula • Update periodically (including this year) DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  6. DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: OVERALL APPROACH • Start with demand/supply estimates prepared for 1990, 1996, 2000 • Modification of 1990/96/2000 estimates of demand for fuels to reflect reports of recent changes in conditions in the DPRK • Revision of 2000 electricity supply estimates to meet 2005 demand, reflect thermal/hydro capacity/availability changes • Estimation of 2005 oil supply reflecting available information (including “official” and "unofficial" trades) DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  7. DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: OVERALL APPROACH • Revision of oil products demand to meet the overall supply for major oil products • Set level of coal and biomass supply to meet demand • Consistent with information about coal infrastructure, forest productivity • Re-adjust supply/demand of other fuels as necessary to produce rough balance • Overall, approach: Obtain all information germane to DPRK energy sector • Sift, fit with other data, prepare internally consistent energy balance DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  8. DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: OVERALL APPROACH • Information collected from: • Reports by others • Media reports • Official statistics of DPRK trading partners • Information on the DPRK from ROK government agencies • Reports of visitors to and observers of the DPRK • DPRK Energy Experts Study Group DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  9. DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: OVERALL APPROACH • Energy Balance Elements--Rows • Domestic resources extraction, imports, exports • Energy “transformation processes”– refining, electricity production, losses… • Energy demand sectors – industrial, residential, transport… • Energy Balance Elements– Columns • Fuel/resource categories – in DPRK Energy Analysis work, general and by refined product • For each fuel/resource considered, demand and supply must balance • Iterative analysis to balance columns DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  10. DPRK ENERGY BALANCE UPDATE: DRAFT ENERGY BALANCE TABLE DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  11. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: RECENT TRENDS (1990s) • Decline in the supply of crude oil • Continuing degradation of electricity generation, T&D infrastructure • Continuing degradation of industrial facilities • International trade in magnesite • Difficulties with transport of all goods, especially coal • Difficulties in coal production related to lack of electricity, mine flooding DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  12. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: RECENT TRENDS (2000-on) • Some economic revival, but mostly associated with foreign aid and/or in areas of the economy that are not energy intensive (markets, restaurants, small agriculture) • Cessation of KEDO Heavy Fuel Oil deliveries • Supply of electricity to Kaesong from ROK • Electricity imports from China (modest) • Cross border trade in oil/oil products(?) • Construction of small power plants (possibly not connected to main grid) DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  13. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DATABASE UPDATES FOR 2005 • Database update in early phase, but possible changes include: • Somewhat improved electricity generation and electricity availability in recent years • Modest additions to industrial capacity in recent years (but likely not across the board) • Impacts of recent ROK/PRC infrastructure investments • Changes in official/unofficial fuels imports/exports • Revisit assumptions regarding fuelwood/biomass and coal use in rural residential sector • Modest changes in transport sector • Adjustments to revise fuel use in military sector DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  14. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DATABASE UPDATES FOR 2005 Key Questions for Experts Study Group Input: • DPRK Energy Supply • Have there been recent significant changes in generating capacity, or change to T&D? • What is total capacity of reported new small power plants, and what is their average capacity factor? • What have been the trends/amounts of fuels imports/exports to/from the PRC, RF? • Have there been recent significant changes in the coal mining sector resulting in changes in coal availability? • What is the status of fuelwood and biomass production? DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  15. DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY: IMAGES DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  16. DPRK ENERGY SUPPLY: IMAGES DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  17. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DATABASE UPDATES FOR 2005 Key Questions for Experts Study Group Input: • DPRK Energy Demand • What do recent economic changes (for example, in the commercial sector) mean for energy use? • Recent trends in rural household and services energy use--fuelwood/biomass, coal, electricity? • Has heavy industry in the DPRK changed significantly in recent years? • What impacts have recent ROK/PRC industrial sector investments had on energy use? • Recent trends in agricultural sector energy use? • Modest changes in transport sector • Have military “exercise tempos” changed recently? DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  18. DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  19. DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  20. DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  21. DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  22. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  23. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  24. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  25. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  26. THE DPRK ENERGY SECTOR: DRAFT RESULTS DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  27. DPRK ENERGY DATABASE UPDATES: NEXT STEPS • Review papers/presentations prepared for this Meeting and other information gleaned from Participants • Continue review of available DPRK literature • Interview additional recent visitors to the DPRK • Revise/rebalance analysis of 2005 Energy Supply/Demand • Obtain reviews of draft database/Report, and revise as appropriate • Prepare Final Report • Use Report results, other materials/ideas collected to work with others to identify and elaborate possible sets of activities to assist DPRK energy sector redevelopment DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  28. ROK DATA ON DPRK ENERGY AND COMBINED KOREAN MODEL • Reviewing ROK literature on DPRK energy sector and economy • Available data in Korean • Trace down ultimate sources of figures in ROK literature to the extent possible • Use DPRK database to develop model of future energy supply/demand in the DPRK (using the LEAP energy/ environment software tool) • In a parallel effort, develop and update ROK database in LEAP • Use DPRK, ROK LEAP datasets to develop coordinated energy paths for Korea as a whole • Including paths in which energy resource links are made with other countries in Northeast Asia DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

  29. THANK YOU! DPRK Energy Experts Study Group

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