1 / 32

Outline

Outline. In-Class Experiment on Centipede Game Test of Iterative Dominance Principle I: McKelvey and Palfrey (1992) Test of Iterative Dominance Principle II: Ho, Camerer, and Weigelt (1988). Motivation. Constant-sum games  Control for altruistic behavior Does experience matter?

jeroen
Download Presentation

Outline

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Outline • In-Class Experiment on Centipede Game • Test of Iterative Dominance Principle I: McKelvey and Palfrey (1992) • Test of Iterative Dominance Principle II: Ho, Camerer, and Weigelt (1988)

  2. Motivation • Constant-sum games Control for altruistic behavior • Does experience matter? • Finite-threshold versus infinite-threshold Allow violations of higher level of iterated dominance • Group size and learning

  3. Finite-Threshold p-BC

  4. Infinite-Threshold pBC

  5. Experimental Design

  6. pBC Contest • Every player simultaneously chooses a number from 0 to 100 • Compute the group average • Define Target Number to be 0.7 times the group average • The winner is the player whose number is the closet to the Target Number • The prize to the winner is US$10 + $1 x Number of Participant

  7. A Sample of Caltech Board of Trustees • David D. Ho Director The Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center • Gordon E. Moore Chairman Emeritus Intel Corporation • Stephen A. Ross Co-Chairman, Roll and Ross Asset Mgt Corp • Sally K. Ride President Imaginary Lines, Inc., and Hibben Professor of Physics • David Baltimore President California Institute of Technology • Donald L. Bren Chairman of the BoardThe Irvine Company • Eli BroadChairmanSunAmerica Inc. • Lounette M. Dyer Chairman Silk Route Technology

  8. Results from Caltech Board of Trustees

  9. Results from Two Other Smart Subject Pools

  10. Results from College Students

  11. Results from FT, Spektrum Readers

  12. Basic Results

  13. Finite-Threshold p-BC

  14. Infinite-Threshold pBC

  15. Infinite-Threshold Games (Inexperienced Subjects, p=0.7, n=7)

  16. Infinite-Threshold Games, (Experienced Subjects, p=0.7, n=7)

  17. Infinite-Threshold Games (Inexperienced Subjects, p=0.9, n=7)

  18. Infinite-Threshold Games (Experienced Subjects, p=0.9, n=7)

  19. Infinite-Threshold Games (Inexperienced Subjects, p=0.7, n=3)

  20. Infinite-Threshold Games (Experienced Subjects, p=0.7, n=3)

  21. Infinite-Threshold Games (Inexperienced Subjects, p=0.9, n=3)

  22. Infinite-Threshold Games (Experienced Subjects, p=0.9, n=3)

  23. Finite-Threshold Games, n=3

  24. Finite-Threshold Games, n=7

  25. Summary of Basic Results • Result 1: First-period choices are far from equilibrium. Choice converge towards equilibrium point over time. • Result 2: On average, choices are closer to the equilibrium point for games with finite thresholds, and for games with p farther from 1. • Result 3: Choices are closer to equilibrium for large (7-person) groups than for small (3-person) groups • Result 4: Choices by experienced subjects are no different than choices by inexperienced subjects in the first round, but converge faster to equilibrium.

  26. Further Analysis on Iterated Dominance

  27. Assignment of Type in Bin b Bin 1 Bin 0 x 100

  28. Infinite-Threshold pBC

  29. Maximum Likelihood Estimates

  30. Further Analysis on Iterated Best-Response

  31. Special Cases • Cournot Best Response (R=1, b1 = 1.0) • Fictitious Play (bs= 1/R) • Weighted Fictitious Play (bs=bs)

  32. Maximum Likelihood Estimates

More Related