NATO

1. NATO Reiter, Dan. 2001. Why NATO Enlargement Does Not Spread Democracy. International Security 25:41-67.

2. Today’s Plan • Review Leader-resolve and Lock-in stories • Note: • We are moving into regional organizations, specifically Europe • Last time: • European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms • Today: • NATO

3. Can the LEADER-RESOLVE (Badass) & LOCK-IN (Wimp) stories fit together?

4. Putting the stories together: Dictatorships Democracies Strongly established dictators: Can use HR agreements to CREDIBLY signal resolve Vulnerable dictators: Afraid of HR agreements because they commit torture, and might fall from power some day Vulnerable democracies: Can use HR agreements to LOCK-IN policy Strongly established democracies: Don’t need HR agreements to lock-in, and thus prefer to keep their sovereignty Strongly established dictators Vulnerable dictators Vulnerable democracies Strongly established democracies • Dictatorships: Signal Leader-resolve ; Democracies: Lock-in policies • What do the 2 stories have in common? International agreements provide a commitment for domestic purposes

5. Take-away • Domestic political determinants of international relations!

6. And now NATO… And international sources of domestic politics

7. North Atlantic Treaty Organization • THE Cold War alliance of the West • Established 1949 – just a political organization • Then a war galvanized the member states • Which war? • KOREAN WAR 1950-1953 • The first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay (UK), famously stated the organization's goal was: “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

8. Article 5? • “an armed attack against one… shall be considered an attack against them all” • The principle of collective defense • Invoked once: • 9/12/2001 • http://www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm

9. Important aside: • What was the rival alliance of the “East”? • The Warsaw Pact • Dissolved with the end of the Cold War

10. With the end of the Cold War, what good is NATO & why enlarge it? Spread democracy?

11. Why *not* enlarge NATO? Credibility problem Alienating Russia

12. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncjjY7CTklM&feature=related • http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/index.htm • (home page)

13. North Atlantic Treaty Organization • HQ located where? • Brussels, Belgium • April 4,1949: 12 countries signed the North Atlantic Treaty • Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal (dictatorship until 1975!), the United Kingdom, and the United States • 3 components of the treaty relevant to enlargement and democratization are notable • Article 5 is the most binding aspect of the treaty: “an armed attack against one or more of [the parties] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” • The treaty in two places (Articles 2 and 10) states its commitment to democratic principles • Article 10 allows for the inclusion of new members by unanimous vote • Four nations joined as new members during the Cold War: • 1952: Greece (Dict 1967-73) & Turkey (Authoritarian until 1960, with military interventions in 1971 & 1980. 1980-1982 military rule!!!) • 1955: West Germany in 1955 (Dem) • 1982: Spain (Dem 1977-)

14. Take-aways from previous slide: • Membership has grown • 2 joined as dictatorships (Portugal, Turkey) • 2 experienced democratic breakdowns (Greece, Turkey) • Article 5: Common defense • Articles 2 & 10: Democratic principles

15. 1994 Secretary of State Warren Christopher: pushes for NATO enlargement • Christopher come from the “institutionalist” school of thought – believes international institutions promote democracy, trade, peace • March 1999: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland • (Bush... Neo-con?...) • March 2004: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia • April 2009: Albania, Croatia • Wiki timeline: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c3/Map_of_NATO_chronological.gif h

16. How might NATO spread democracy? • Carrot • Since 1995, NATO only admits democracies • Thus governments that want to join NATO have an incentive to bring about democracy • Problem? • This is a new rule. Historically there have been non-democratic members

17. How might NATO spread democracy? • Stick • Ejection – NATO *might* eject countries if democracy breaks down • Thus member governments have an incentive to continue to play by democratic rules • Problem? • There is no legal basis for this! • At best this might be possible through a unanimous vote, but there are so many members, unanimity on ejection is unlikely • Organization of American States and European Union do have explicit ejection procedures

18. How might NATO spread democracy? • Socialization effect: • Teach military leaders the importance of civilian supremacy over the military • NATO provides an institutionalized environment • transgovernmental contacts between militaries, spread norms of civilian control of the military • Problem? • The major determinant of the survival of democracy is per capita income (Przeworski) • However – we will discuss the work of Pevehouse (class 24)

19. Risks for NATO from enlargement • Credibility problem • Alienating Russia

20. Risks for NATO: Credibility problem • “an armed attack against one…shall be considered an attack against them all.” • Poland: 31% of the American public agrees that the US has a vital interest • Japan: 87% of the American public agrees that the US has a vital interest • If we are unwilling to come to the defense of NATO members, the organization is *weakened*

21. Risks for NATO: Alienating Russia • Russian point of view: • With the end of the Cold War came the end of the Warsaw Pact • So, why is there still a NATO? • And why is it growing? • And why is it growing right up to our borders??

22. The Risk: Waking the Sleeping Bear ?

23. The 2008 South Ossetia War a.k.a. the Russia–Georgia War • Georgia enter NATO? • Putin warns Bush • Georgia continues quest to join NATO

24. Conclusion • The continued usefulness of NATO depends on it being credible (defending ALL members) • The point is to bring about peace not alienate rivals (Russia) • Enlargement may promote peace by promoting democracy • But it is not obvious that NATO membership can indeed promote democracy

25. Thank youWE ARE GLOBAL GEORGETOWN!