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Workshop on Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline and the Predictive Model . August 31, 1999 El Monte, CA. Agenda. Goals Carbon Monoxide Credit Predictive Model - Evaporative Off-Road Predictive Model - Exhaust Sulfur Credit - Flexibility Draft Specifications Other Presentations? Autos

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Presentation Transcript
agenda
Agenda
  • Goals
  • Carbon Monoxide Credit
  • Predictive Model - Evaporative
  • Off-Road
  • Predictive Model - Exhaust
  • Sulfur Credit - Flexibility
  • Draft Specifications
  • Other Presentations?
    • Autos
    • Oils
    • Oxygenate
    • Others
  • Next Meeting
goals
Goals
  • Provide Flexibility, for removing MTBE while preserving real-world benefits
  • Obtain additional reductions that are technically and economically reasonable
carbon monoxide credit
Carbon Monoxide Credit
  • 3 Technology Groups
    • 5 Studies - Auto/Oil 1, 4, 6, 17, and ARB Ethanol Study
  • Off-cycle Emissions
    • 5 Studies - ARB Ethanol, Auto/Oil, ATL Low Oxygen, and Colorado Study (???)
  • U.S. EPA Draft Report - Fuel Oxygen Effects on Exhaust CO Emissions - MOBILE6
  • Off-cycle NOx increases
carbon monoxide credit5
Carbon Monoxide Credit
  • EMFAC7g -vs- EMFAC99
  • Summer Test Program
    • More data
  • Stakeholder and Peer Review
carbon monoxide credit6

Carbon Monoxide Credit

Carbon monoxide credit for increasing oxygen from 2 % to 3.5% is 0.2 psi RVP

evaporative emissions model
Evaporative Emissions Model
  • No Change at this time
    • EMFAC7g -vs- EMFAC99
  • Draft Model based on Baseline Year 2005
  • 3 Processes
    • Hot Soak
    • Running Loss
    • Diurnal and Resting Loss
off road
Off-Road
  • 4-Stroke and 2-Stroke
  • Tend to Run Rich
    • Oxygen tends to lean-out process
    • Oxygen increases NOx
  • No Catalytic Converter
    • Implies NOx increase difficult to offset.
    • No sulfur effect
  • Uncontrolled for Evaporative Emissions
    • Emissions tend to have higher reactivities
    • Increased toxics (benzene) emissions
exhaust predictive model
Exhaust - Predictive Model
  • Current Model Terms Fit as well
  • Use Current Model Fit to New Data
    • Olefin and T90 Responses
  • Tech 5 - Sulfur Steeper, Oxygen Shallower
  • Stakeholder and Peer Review
new model and old model root mean squared error of the predictions
New Model and Old ModelRoot Mean Squared Error of the Predictions*

* Cross-validation estimation of the Prediction Error

sulfur credit
Sulfur Credit
  • 32 Percent of Fuels Reported with sulfur greater than proposed sulfur cap of 30 ppm
  • 44 ppm - Average sulfur for fuels with sulfur greater than 30 ppm
  • Reduce sulfur to 30 ppm
  • Sulfur credit used to offset T90
goals12
Goals
  • Provide Flexibility, for removing MTBE while preserving real-world benefits
  • Obtain additional reductions that are technically and economically reasonable
draft specifications14
Draft Specifications

* - No Change, NA - Not Applicable

presentations by others
Presentations by Others?
  • Autos
  • Oils
  • Oxygenates
  • Others
next business
Next Business
  • Other business
  • Next Meeting
  • Posting Beta 2 Model on Website