Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe Nick Ford Senior Consultant FROST & SULLIVAN - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe Nick Ford Senior Consultant FROST & SULLIVAN PowerPoint Presentation
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Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe Nick Ford Senior Consultant FROST & SULLIVAN
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Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe Nick Ford Senior Consultant FROST & SULLIVAN

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  1. Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe Nick Ford Senior ConsultantFROST & SULLIVAN © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  2. Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies Conclusions & Recommendations Agenda for Safety & DAS © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  3. Launched in 2008 Key Product Launches in Automotive Safety Market – 2007 Driver Alert Control (DAC) Production Models : S80, V70 and XC70 Sensor Used : CMOS Camera Developed by : Volvo, Mobileye System Functioning : LDW camera monitors distance between the car and the road lane markings to determine whether the driver risks losing control or not. Park4U Semi-autonomous Parking Production Models : VW Touran, Tiguan Sensor Used : Ultrasonic sensors Developed by : Valeo System Functioning : The system measures a parallel parking space and guides the car into the gap taking steering control, with the driver required to just accelerate or brake. Collision avoidance is a key development area – Europe’s first system using Radar + Camera sensor fusion for Emergency braking Collision Warning with Automatic Braking Production Models : S80, V70 and XC70 Sensor Used : Camera + Radar Developed by : Volvo, Mobileye, Delphi System Functioning : Sensor fusion of radar and camera data for obstacle detection with initial audio and video warnings followed pre-charging of the brakes or automatic-braking in the case of driver inaction. PathFindIR – Automotive Night Vision (Aftermarket) Sensor Used : Far Infra-red camera Developed by : FLIR + NAV-TV System Functioning : PathFindIR is an autonomous, stand-alone camera system that uses thermal imaging for improved road visibility in night driving conditions. The system can be installed on any vehicle platform quickly and easily. Lane Departure Warning (LDW) – Camera Based Production Models : BMW 5-Series Sensor Used : CMOS Camera Developed by : Siemens VDO + Mobileye © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  4. Key Product Launches in Automotive Safety Market – 2008 Audi Side Assist Production Models : A4 , Q7 Sensor Used : 24 GHz sensors Developed by : Hella System Functioning :The system constantly monitors the adjacent right and left lanes. It provides an optical alert - with warning lights on the side mirrors . City Safety system Production Models : XC60 Sensor Used : Infrared Sensors Developed by : Volvo, Continental System Functioning :Three Infrared Sensors behind the windscreen scans the front of the vehicle up to 6 m and can bring the car to a complete halt if the relative speeds are less than 15 km/hr City Safety – Europe’s first Low Speed Collision Avoidance System to be installed as a standard in Volvo XC60 Blind Spot Detection Production Models : Jaguar XF Sensor Used : 24 GHz sensors Developed by : Valeo System Functioning :This radar based sensor technology alerts a vehicle driver of the presence of another vehicle at the rear blind spot. A visible icon is displayed in the side view mirror in such a situation, thus alerting the driver. Intelligent Park Assist Production Models : A3 Sensor Used : Ultrasonic Sensors Developed by : Unknown System Functioning :. The system measures a parallel parking space and guides the car into the gap taking steering control, with the driver required to just accelerate or brake © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  5. Announced in 2008 Key events/concepts in Automotive Safety Market – 2008 Attention Assist System Expected Launch Year : 2009 Developed by : Mercedes System Functioning : The system warns the driver of tiredness using various sensors to analyse driving behaviour. The system creates a driver behaviour profile during normal driving and compares it in different scenarios to detect fatigue Blaupunkt “Dual View” System Expected Launch Year : 2009 Developed by : Bosch System Functioning : The system displays two different programs on a single screen with the driver and passenger able to view different images based upon the angle of viewing, with space requirements remaining the same. Renewed interest in monitoring driver and driving behaviour for accident prevention Integrated Project GST (Global System for Telematics) Developed by : Renault + BMW System Functioning : Renault and BMW jointly developed a rescue scenario and implemented it for the first time in vehicle prototypes, focusing specifically on inter-vehicle communication. The prototypes have interoperable telematics with open architecture for easy communication. Saab – Driver Attention Warning System Developed by : Saab System Functioning : Development project for designing a system that Detects Driver Drowsiness & Driver Inattention – Utilizes two miniature infra-red cameras, one installed at the base of the driver’s A-pillar and the other in the center of the main fascia, focused on the driver’s eyes. © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  6. Nissan ASV-4: Using V2X communication for avoiding accidents at intersections and better traffic management Another on-going project employs telematics via cellular phones to improve traffic flow and reduce traffic congestion V2V Communication: The Nissan ASV-4 warning system employs vehicle-to-vehicle communications to alert the driver to take defensive actions in situations where an on-coming vehicle is not yet visible, but poses a potential threat to road safety. ITS Project: The system is fed traffic data via links to traffic infrastructure (e.g. using beacons) © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  7. 2025 2015 2005 • Front air bag • Side air bag • Seat belt • Seat belt warning • ABS 1995 Safety Systems Evolution 1995 - 2015 Inter-section support, Urban Driving Assistance, Rural Driving Assistance • Driver Drowsiness Warning • Integrated Lane Change Assistance /Lane keeping System. Curve speed warning • Integrated Lane Change Assistance /Lane keeping System • Longitudinal and Lateral Collision Avoidance systems • Intelligent Speed Crash Compatibilty across Brands and Body Styles • Active Pedestrian protection systems Advanced Automatic Crash Notification • Integrated Chassis System • Pre-Crash Occupant Protection Integration of DAS Applications with MAP Data • Occupant Detection and classification • Anti Submarining and variable stage deployment airbag • Whiplash protection • Belt pretensioning • Lane Departure Warning (LDW) • Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems (TPMS) • Blind Spot Detection (BSD) • EBS / ABS • ESP • Emergency Brake Assist (EBA) • Active Steering • ACC • ACC (Stop & Go) Global Safety Systems Technology Roadmap • Passive Pedestrian protection systems Intra-brand Crash Compatibilty Automatic Crash Notification Collision Avoidance Driver Warning and Information Systems Vehicle Stability Systems Occupant Protection Safety Systems Partner Protection Automatic Notification System Active Safety Systems Passive Safety Systems Source: Frost & Sullivan © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  8. $38.3 Billion $26.1 Billion 45.3% 51.9% 54.7% 48.1% Year 2006 Year 2012 Asia is the Major Contributor to the Global Safety Systems Market Revenues Attributableto Wider Installation in Japan CAGR 6.6% Year 2012 $15.8 Billion Global Safety Systems Market – Revenue Forecast $11.6 Billion $10.9 Billion 43.2% 46.7% 47.0% Million US$ 56.8% 53.3% 53.0% Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost &Sullivan © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  9. $21 Billion CAGR 8.9% 10.5% 1.0% Year 2012 5.8% $12.5 Billion 7.0% 1.1% 5.7% 2.1% 1.2% 8.6% 11.6% $9 Billion 2.8% 1.3% 9.6% 17.3% $6.2 Billion 13.1% $5.8 Billion 3.7% 7.3% 15.7% 10.0% 3.4% 61.3% Million US$ 22.7% 5.7% 71.7% 5.5% 84.6% 65.0% 42.7% Year 2006 Year 2012 Note: ABS/ESC – Antilock Braking System / Electronic Stability Control, TPMS – Tyre Pressure Monitoring System, LDW – Lane Departure Warning, BSD – Blind Spot Detection, NVS – Night Vision System, PA – Parking Assistance, ACC – Adaptive Cruise Control Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost &Sullivan Global Active Safety Systems Market Revenues to Exceed 20 Billion USD by 2012 Global Active Safety Systems Market: Revenue Forecasts (in Million US$), 2006 and 2012 Global Active Safety Systems Market – Revenue Forecast © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  10. + Penetration _ B – Features Standard in higher segment vehicles, but optional in mid and lower segments C – Features that will only be available as option A – Technologies Driven By Legislation EPS -> CEPS + PEPS + REPS 70.0% Stolen Vehicle Tracking 75.0% RVD 75.0% MP3/ WMA 91.0% Standard ESP 100.0% e-call 100.0% DPF (%of diesel) 100.0% Tyre Pressure Monitoring System 100.0% Legislation driven technologies like e-call and Tyre Pressure Monitoring are expected to have a high penetration in EU 2020 A Active Steering 20.0% DVD 24.0% Air Suspension 25.0% Start-stop system 30.0% Occupant Sensing Systems 33.2% DCT + AMTs 35.0% Advanced ESP 35.0% Multi-functional Switches 36.0% Pay as you drive (PAYD) 35 - 40% Turbocharger (% of gasoline) 40.0% Embedded Navigation 40.0% VVT (% of gasoline) 42.5% In-vehicle Displays 48.0% Passive Hands free 55.0% GDI (% of gasoline) 57.5% Whiplash Protection Systems 61.1% Leading European Automotive Technologies B Lane Departure Warning (LDW) 4.3% Blind Spot Detection (BSD) 6.0% Adaptive Cruise Control 8.2% Seat - Active Massage (Driver/Passenger) 8.5% EHB + Hybrid braking+ EMB /EWB 14.0% Seat - Ventilation (Driver/Passenger) 19.2% Source: Frost & Sullivan C © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  11. Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities Passive Safety Technologies – Growth Opportunities in a mature market Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies Conclusions & Recommendations Agenda for Safety & DAS © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  12. Active Safety Systems – The Burning Topics Success of DAS features will be significantly influenced by quality of HMI Obstacle sensors to become commodity products – CMOS presents strong growth opportunities Potential end-user demand for DAS in the aftermarket – new products entering market Key Conclusions – Active Safety Systems Integration of DAS with navigation and post-crash safety systems reaching introduction phase Non-chassis suppliers making in-roads into DAS market including low-speed maneuvering © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  13. Blind Spot Detection Infrared Sensors CMOS Radar 24 GHz > 79 GHz Push Button Visual Display Push Button Warning Light and Audible Collision Warning (CW) CMOS Driver Warning and Information Systems Radar 24 GHz > 79 GHz CMOS Sharing ACC, LDW, NVS & CW Automatic Audible and Visual Night Vision System (NVS) CMOS based Near Infrared Sensors Far Infrared Sensors Push Button Visual Display Lane Departure Warning (LDW) CMOS Infrared Sensors (2004) Push Button Haptic Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) 24 GHz Sensors > 79 GHz Sensors Lidar Sensors (2003) Driver Assist Systems Fusion of Radar 76/77 & CMOS Radar 76/77 (1998) Push Button Automatic braking and acceleration. Intelligent Park Assist CMOS Push Button Visual Display Input Options Output Options Key Dimensions – Systems, Sensors, HMI Source: Frost & Sullivan study on European Markets for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, 2006 European Active Safety Technology Roadmap 2004 2010 2015 Driver Assistance System Sensors Used © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  14. Growing Interest from OEMs in Low Speed Driving Assistance Applications Standalone Ultrasonic Park Assist 360o Monitoring Low Speed Parking and Driving Assistance Systems Forward / Garage Parking System Front Front Perpendicular Parking / Side View Parallel Parking / side protection Side Intelligent Park Assist Rear Perpendicular Parking Standalone Ultrasonic Park Assist Rear 2005 2010 2015 © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  15. Valeo is a clear leader in the Intelligent Park Assist Market and will supply to 16 models by 2010 Slot Length: In relation to the length of the car Valeo: 1.08 Aisin:1.3 Hella:1.1 TRW:1.2 Minimum time to park Valeo:42 sec Aisin :74 sec © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  16. The market for ACC stop & go to witness entry of new suppliers to cater to high end cars within volume manufacturers Supplier Market Share for ACC Stop & go, 2008 Supplier Market Share for ACC Stop & go, 2014 • Beyond 2010,the market will witness the entry of new suppliers like TRW , Delphi* , Hella with stop & go capabilities ‘ • Bosch is expected to be the market leader with almost 50% of the market share supplying to higher end and high medium models within BMW and Audi • Suppliers like TRW , Delphi . are expected to cater to Volkswagen , Jaguar, General motors models respectively • Bosch leads the way in ACC Stop & go market with more than 80% of the market share • Bosch supplies to BMW , and Audi models • Continental is a follower in the market with 17.8 % of the market share • Continental supplies ACC Stop & go systems to Mercedes models * Delphi sensor developed with Fujitsu 10 © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  17. Car- Car and Car –Infrastructure communication is the next big thing for vehicle technology with extensive benefits to all stake holders Challenges 1.Scalable and reliable communication system 2.Secutity issues 3.Availability (coverage area) 4.Certain market penetration necessary for availability 5.Needs cross industry synergy and government support for deployment Lane Departure Warning Side Assist Extended rear Collision Warning and blind-spot Extended Collision Warning Collision Warning Rear collision warning and mitigation Lane Change Assistance Vehicle to vehicle communication Vehicle to Infrastructure communication Communication & sensor based Source: Frost & Sullivan Sensor based © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  18. Curve Warning & Driving Stability Improvement System • Toyota jointly developed with Aisin and currently available in Europe on select Toyota models • System uses digital map data to sense curvature radius • Suspension damping forces gets optimum control in line with the curvature radius Example of digital map acting as a sensor Steering angle sensor Digital Map Data Sensor Fusion Adaptive Front Lighting Systems Vehicle speed sensor GPS Sensor Vehicle height sensor Host of ADAS Applications where Digital Map Data is a Key Component for Enhanced Accuracy and Results Aisin, Toyota Bosch, BMW Aisin, Toyota Curve Warning ACC Navimatic Transmission Electronic Stability Control Adaptive Front Lighting Digital Map data key for Many ADAS Applications European Active Safety Market Growth Areas Continental, Mercedes Benz Visteon ( Ford) Lane Departure Warning Fuel Economy Valeo, PSA Aisin, Toyota © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  19. ADAS and Telematics Integration Inaccurate map data information and defining, standardizing information exchange interface remains a major challenge Short term20062012 Medium term 20122015 Long term 20162020 Map based applications • Speed Limit • Stop Light/Sign • Sharp Curve • Lane Merge • Pedestrian Crossing • No Passing Zone • Overtaking Zone Fuel Economy and Emissions • Predictive Cruise Control • Predictive Shift Transmission • Hybrid Power Management Map enabled ADAS systems • ACC • Adaptive Front Lightning • Collision avoidance • BSD • LDW • LCA • ACC stop & go © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  20. Technology Trends Wireless LAN combines the advantage of affordability and bandwidth for vehicle communication requirement Advantage Shortcomings Trend Wireless LAN Affordable , Good bandwidth Accident hot spot coverage Local Area communication Infrared Affordable and good bandwidth Line of sight communication Satellite data Global availability High cost low speed Digital satellite radio Good availability One way communication Wide Area communication AM/FM radio Coverage and availability One way communication Cellular Availability and coverage High cost and low speed Bluetooth No license , affordable Limited capacity Near end communication Infrared No license , affordable Line of sight communication Low Interest / Involvement High Interest / Involvement Source: Frost & Sullivan © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  21. E-Call Implementation Pushed Ahead by a Year – Market Still in its Nascent Stages E Call Market Forecast - Conservative Vs Optimistic Scenario €1.84 billion market in 2015! 30-35% Realistic • Currently very few services operating in the European market – BMW Assist, Volvo on Call, Fiat Blue & Me Nav and some Opel models with the On star functionality • Member states have been asked to develop the necessary PSAP infrastructures for the smooth operation of E112 (Automotive & Telecom industry) – Germany signs the MOU for E Call only in June 2007 • The smooth implementation of E call is expected to boost applications like b call, RVD which share the same hardware platform © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  22. TRW Valeo Visteon Chassis Suppliers currently dominating Safety market – Expect non-Chassis Suppliers to Impact DAS market Supplier Chassis Power train Comfort ADAS Sensor Fusion Harman Becker Bosch Continental/S VDO Delphi Denso Hella Legend: High Low Source: Frost & Sullivan © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  23. Suppliers using 4 key methods to overcome barriers to market entry for Active Safety Joint ventures with non-automotive companies for technology capabilities Non-electronic suppliers expanding product portfolio to include Active safety New Technology companies use partnership with Tier-1 suppliers to find their way to VMs Co-development of Tier-1 / Tier-2 suppliers with Vehicle Manufacturers + + + © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  24. Systems Already in Market Tomorrow for DAS HUD DIY / Aftermarket Installed Warning / Information Systems TPMS Park Assist LDW Indispensable for safe driving Want / Incentivised by insurance Source: Frost & Sullivan Significant Aftermarket Potential for DAS – No “Breakthrough” Product Thus Far Case Study - TomTom GO was launched in a market dominated by complex, expensive, built-in car navigation systems. TomTom GO managed to position itself not just as another technical product, but as an easy, smart and accessible consumer solution, moving to take a 56% market share Source: TomTom © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  25. Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies Conclusions & Recommendations Agenda for Safety & DAS © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  26. List of Clients who invested in this VOC Multi-Client Study on Safety • Frost & Sullivan developed this study to enable manufacturers and suppliers to better understand the expectation of customers, their desirability for safety and willingness to pay. • The quality of the methodology is emphasised by 6 OEMs and 4 Tier 1 suppliers sponsoring the study. • List of clients for this study - © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  27. Across Europe, ‘traditional’ occupant protection and braking technologies are preferred over newer active technologies. Voice of Customer Study on Safety – Europe Q.10 How important are the following to you when you consider a package of safety features for your vehicle? Source : Information from Consumer research study done with 1,635 respondents © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  28. Features That Aid Driver Vision Q.12e If you are making a decision to buy a new car, which safety features would you include? © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  29. Relative Importance of Safety Attributes – EUROPE Correct Speed EnhanceBraking Warn of Risks Keep Distance Aid Driver Vision Protect : Collision SOS : Collision Providing protection to passengers in a collision, and the enhancement of braking, are the attributes most expected to be standard. Vehicles with these features will be considered for purchase. Will Not Buy Vehicle if Absent Will Purchase Vehicle if Standard Likely Purchase as an Option Nice to Have On average, speed correction, keeping distance, and summoning for emergency assistance (SOS) after a collision, are the attributes most considered for purchase as an option, and least expected to be standard. Don’t Want It * These are based on the mean scores of the importance ratings for each attribute. © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  30. Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies Conclusions & Recommendations Agenda for Safety & DAS © Frost & Sullivan 2008

  31. Consumers in Europe willing to pay for active safety systems, however not ready for autonomous driving – yet!! BSD and LDW features present stronger market growth opportunities than ACC Threat of new dimension to competition – Non-Chassis suppliers and aftermarket potential for DAS! Success of DAS features will be significantly influenced by quality of HMI Key Conclusions – Global Safety Market Upgrading parking sensors to Automatic Parking units offers significant growth opportunities to suppliers Pricing remains a key barrier preventing the wider uptake of many DAS features. Requires brave decisions. © Frost & Sullivan 2008