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Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe Nick Ford Senior Consultant FROST & SULLIVAN Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies

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slide1

Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe

Nick Ford Senior ConsultantFROST & SULLIVAN

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide2

Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies

Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities

Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies

Conclusions & Recommendations

Agenda for Safety & DAS

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

key product launches in automotive safety market 2007

Launched in 2008

Key Product Launches in Automotive Safety Market – 2007

Driver Alert Control (DAC)

Production Models : S80, V70 and XC70

Sensor Used : CMOS Camera

Developed by : Volvo, Mobileye

System Functioning : LDW camera monitors distance between the car and the road lane markings to determine whether the driver risks losing control or not.

Park4U Semi-autonomous Parking

Production Models : VW Touran, Tiguan

Sensor Used : Ultrasonic sensors

Developed by : Valeo

System Functioning : The system measures a parallel parking space and guides the car into the gap taking steering control, with the driver required to just accelerate or brake.

Collision avoidance is a key development area – Europe’s first system using Radar + Camera sensor fusion for Emergency braking

Collision Warning with Automatic Braking

Production Models : S80, V70 and XC70

Sensor Used : Camera + Radar

Developed by : Volvo, Mobileye, Delphi

System Functioning : Sensor fusion of radar and camera data for obstacle detection with initial audio and video warnings followed pre-charging of the brakes or automatic-braking in the case of driver inaction.

PathFindIR – Automotive Night Vision

(Aftermarket)

Sensor Used : Far Infra-red camera

Developed by : FLIR + NAV-TV

System Functioning : PathFindIR is an autonomous, stand-alone camera system that uses thermal imaging for improved road visibility in night driving conditions. The system can be installed on any vehicle platform quickly and easily.

Lane Departure Warning (LDW) – Camera Based

Production Models : BMW 5-Series

Sensor Used : CMOS Camera

Developed by : Siemens VDO + Mobileye

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

key product launches in automotive safety market 2008
Key Product Launches in Automotive Safety Market – 2008

Audi Side Assist

Production Models : A4 , Q7

Sensor Used : 24 GHz sensors

Developed by : Hella

System Functioning :The system constantly monitors the adjacent right and left lanes. It provides an optical alert - with warning lights on the side mirrors .

City Safety system

Production Models : XC60

Sensor Used : Infrared Sensors

Developed by : Volvo, Continental

System Functioning :Three Infrared Sensors behind the windscreen scans the front of the vehicle up to 6 m and can bring the car to a complete halt if the relative speeds are less than 15 km/hr

City Safety – Europe’s first Low Speed Collision Avoidance System to be installed as a standard in Volvo XC60

Blind Spot Detection

Production Models : Jaguar XF

Sensor Used : 24 GHz sensors

Developed by : Valeo

System Functioning :This radar based sensor technology alerts a vehicle driver of the presence of another vehicle at the rear blind spot. A visible icon is displayed in the side view mirror in such a situation, thus alerting the driver.

Intelligent Park Assist

Production Models : A3

Sensor Used : Ultrasonic Sensors

Developed by : Unknown

System Functioning :. The system measures a parallel parking space and guides the car into the gap taking steering control, with the driver required to just accelerate or brake

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

key events concepts in automotive safety market 2008

Announced in 2008

Key events/concepts in Automotive Safety Market – 2008

Attention Assist System

Expected Launch Year : 2009

Developed by : Mercedes

System Functioning : The system warns the driver of tiredness using various sensors to analyse driving behaviour. The system creates a driver behaviour profile during normal driving and compares it in different scenarios to detect fatigue

Blaupunkt “Dual View” System

Expected Launch Year : 2009

Developed by : Bosch

System Functioning : The system displays two different programs on a single screen with the driver and passenger able to view different images based upon the angle of viewing, with space requirements remaining the same.

Renewed interest in monitoring driver and driving behaviour for accident prevention

Integrated Project GST

(Global System for Telematics)

Developed by : Renault + BMW

System Functioning : Renault and BMW jointly developed a rescue scenario and implemented it for the first time in vehicle prototypes, focusing specifically on inter-vehicle communication. The prototypes have interoperable telematics with open architecture for easy communication.

Saab – Driver Attention Warning

System

Developed by : Saab

System Functioning : Development project for designing a system that Detects Driver Drowsiness & Driver Inattention – Utilizes two miniature infra-red cameras, one installed at the base of the driver’s A-pillar and the other in the center of the main fascia, focused on the driver’s eyes.

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide6
Nissan ASV-4: Using V2X communication for avoiding accidents at intersections and better traffic management

Another on-going project employs telematics via cellular phones to improve traffic flow and reduce traffic congestion

V2V Communication:

The Nissan ASV-4 warning system employs vehicle-to-vehicle communications to alert the driver to take defensive actions in situations where an on-coming vehicle is not yet visible, but poses a potential threat to road safety.

ITS Project:

The system is fed traffic data via links to traffic infrastructure (e.g. using beacons)

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide7

2025

2015

2005

  • Front air bag
  • Side air bag
  • Seat belt
  • Seat belt warning
  • ABS

1995

Safety Systems Evolution 1995 - 2015

Inter-section support, Urban Driving Assistance, Rural Driving Assistance

  • Driver Drowsiness Warning
  • Integrated Lane Change Assistance /Lane keeping System. Curve speed warning
  • Integrated Lane Change Assistance /Lane keeping System
  • Longitudinal and Lateral Collision Avoidance systems
  • Intelligent Speed

Crash Compatibilty across Brands and Body Styles

  • Active Pedestrian protection systems

Advanced Automatic Crash Notification

  • Integrated Chassis System
  • Pre-Crash Occupant Protection

Integration of DAS Applications with MAP Data

  • Occupant Detection and classification
  • Anti Submarining and variable stage deployment airbag
  • Whiplash protection
  • Belt pretensioning
  • Lane Departure Warning (LDW)
  • Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems (TPMS)
  • Blind Spot Detection (BSD)
  • EBS / ABS
  • ESP
  • Emergency Brake Assist (EBA)
  • Active Steering
  • ACC
  • ACC (Stop & Go)

Global Safety Systems Technology Roadmap

  • Passive Pedestrian protection systems

Intra-brand Crash Compatibilty

Automatic Crash Notification

Collision Avoidance

Driver Warning and Information Systems

Vehicle Stability Systems

Occupant Protection Safety Systems

Partner Protection

Automatic Notification System

Active Safety Systems

Passive Safety Systems

Source: Frost & Sullivan

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide8

$38.3

Billion

$26.1

Billion

45.3%

51.9%

54.7%

48.1%

Year 2006

Year 2012

Asia is the Major Contributor to the Global Safety Systems Market Revenues Attributableto Wider Installation in Japan

CAGR 6.6%

Year 2012

$15.8

Billion

Global Safety Systems Market – Revenue Forecast

$11.6

Billion

$10.9

Billion

43.2%

46.7%

47.0%

Million US$

56.8%

53.3%

53.0%

Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost &Sullivan

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide9

$21 Billion

CAGR 8.9%

10.5%

1.0%

Year 2012

5.8%

$12.5 Billion

7.0%

1.1%

5.7%

2.1%

1.2%

8.6%

11.6%

$9 Billion

2.8%

1.3%

9.6%

17.3%

$6.2 Billion

13.1%

$5.8 Billion

3.7%

7.3%

15.7%

10.0%

3.4%

61.3%

Million US$

22.7%

5.7%

71.7%

5.5%

84.6%

65.0%

42.7%

Year 2006

Year 2012

Note: ABS/ESC – Antilock Braking System / Electronic Stability Control, TPMS – Tyre Pressure Monitoring System, LDW – Lane Departure Warning, BSD – Blind Spot Detection, NVS – Night Vision System, PA – Parking Assistance, ACC – Adaptive Cruise Control

Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost &Sullivan

Global Active Safety Systems Market Revenues to Exceed 20 Billion USD by 2012

Global Active Safety Systems Market: Revenue Forecasts (in Million US$), 2006 and 2012

Global Active Safety Systems Market – Revenue Forecast

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide10

+

Penetration

_

B – Features Standard in higher segment vehicles, but optional in mid and lower segments

C – Features that will only be available as option

A – Technologies Driven By Legislation

EPS -> CEPS + PEPS + REPS 70.0%

Stolen Vehicle Tracking 75.0%

RVD 75.0%

MP3/ WMA 91.0%

Standard ESP 100.0%

e-call 100.0%

DPF (%of diesel) 100.0%

Tyre Pressure Monitoring System 100.0%

Legislation driven technologies like e-call and Tyre Pressure Monitoring are expected to have a high penetration in EU

2020

A

Active Steering 20.0%

DVD 24.0%

Air Suspension 25.0%

Start-stop system 30.0%

Occupant Sensing Systems 33.2%

DCT + AMTs 35.0%

Advanced ESP 35.0%

Multi-functional Switches 36.0%

Pay as you drive (PAYD) 35 - 40%

Turbocharger (% of gasoline) 40.0%

Embedded Navigation 40.0%

VVT (% of gasoline) 42.5%

In-vehicle Displays 48.0%

Passive Hands free 55.0%

GDI (% of gasoline) 57.5%

Whiplash Protection Systems 61.1%

Leading European Automotive Technologies

B

Lane Departure Warning (LDW) 4.3%

Blind Spot Detection (BSD) 6.0%

Adaptive Cruise Control 8.2%

Seat - Active Massage (Driver/Passenger) 8.5%

EHB + Hybrid braking+ EMB /EWB 14.0%

Seat - Ventilation (Driver/Passenger) 19.2%

Source: Frost & Sullivan

C

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide11

Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies

Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities

Passive Safety Technologies – Growth Opportunities in a mature market

Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies

Conclusions & Recommendations

Agenda for Safety & DAS

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide12

Active Safety Systems – The Burning Topics

Success of DAS features will be significantly influenced by quality of HMI

Obstacle sensors to become commodity products – CMOS presents strong growth opportunities

Potential end-user demand for DAS in the aftermarket – new products entering market

Key Conclusions – Active Safety Systems

Integration of DAS with navigation and post-crash safety systems reaching introduction phase

Non-chassis suppliers making in-roads into DAS market including low-speed maneuvering

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide13

Blind Spot Detection

Infrared Sensors

CMOS

Radar 24 GHz > 79 GHz

Push Button

Visual Display

Push Button

Warning Light and Audible

Collision Warning (CW)

CMOS

Driver Warning and Information Systems

Radar 24 GHz > 79 GHz

CMOS Sharing ACC, LDW, NVS & CW

Automatic

Audible and Visual

Night Vision System (NVS)

CMOS based Near Infrared Sensors

Far Infrared Sensors

Push Button

Visual Display

Lane Departure Warning (LDW)

CMOS

Infrared Sensors (2004)

Push Button

Haptic

Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)

24 GHz Sensors > 79 GHz Sensors

Lidar Sensors (2003)

Driver Assist Systems

Fusion of Radar 76/77 & CMOS

Radar 76/77 (1998)

Push Button

Automatic braking and acceleration.

Intelligent Park Assist

CMOS

Push Button

Visual Display

Input Options

Output Options

Key Dimensions – Systems, Sensors, HMI

Source: Frost & Sullivan study on European Markets for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, 2006

European Active Safety Technology Roadmap

2004

2010

2015

Driver Assistance System

Sensors Used

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

growing interest from oems in low speed driving assistance applications
Growing Interest from OEMs in Low Speed Driving Assistance Applications

Standalone Ultrasonic Park Assist

360o Monitoring Low Speed Parking and Driving Assistance Systems

Forward / Garage Parking System

Front

Front Perpendicular Parking / Side View

Parallel Parking / side protection

Side

Intelligent Park Assist

Rear Perpendicular Parking

Standalone Ultrasonic Park Assist

Rear

2005

2010

2015

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide15

Valeo is a clear leader in the Intelligent Park Assist Market and will supply to 16 models by 2010

Slot Length: In relation to the length of the car

Valeo: 1.08

Aisin:1.3

Hella:1.1

TRW:1.2

Minimum time to park

Valeo:42 sec

Aisin :74 sec

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide16

The market for ACC stop & go to witness entry of new suppliers to cater to high end cars within volume manufacturers

Supplier Market Share for ACC Stop & go, 2008

Supplier Market Share for ACC Stop & go, 2014

  • Beyond 2010,the market will witness the entry of new suppliers like TRW , Delphi* , Hella with stop & go capabilities ‘
  • Bosch is expected to be the market leader with almost 50% of the market share supplying to higher end and high medium models within BMW and Audi
  • Suppliers like TRW , Delphi . are expected to cater to Volkswagen , Jaguar, General motors models respectively
  • Bosch leads the way in ACC Stop & go market with more than 80% of the market share
  • Bosch supplies to BMW , and Audi models
  • Continental is a follower in the market with 17.8 % of the market share
  • Continental supplies ACC Stop & go systems to Mercedes models

* Delphi sensor developed with Fujitsu 10

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide17

Car- Car and Car –Infrastructure communication is the next big thing for vehicle technology with extensive benefits to all stake holders

Challenges

1.Scalable and reliable communication system

2.Secutity issues

3.Availability (coverage area)

4.Certain market penetration necessary for availability

5.Needs cross industry synergy and government support for deployment

Lane Departure Warning

Side Assist

Extended rear Collision Warning and blind-spot

Extended Collision Warning

Collision Warning

Rear collision warning and mitigation

Lane Change Assistance

Vehicle to vehicle communication

Vehicle to Infrastructure communication

Communication & sensor based

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Sensor based

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide18

Curve Warning & Driving Stability Improvement System

  • Toyota jointly developed with Aisin and currently available in Europe on select Toyota models
  • System uses digital map data to sense curvature radius
  • Suspension damping forces gets optimum control in line with the curvature radius

Example of digital map acting as a sensor

Steering angle sensor

Digital Map Data

Sensor

Fusion

Adaptive Front Lighting Systems

Vehicle speed sensor

GPS Sensor

Vehicle height sensor

Host of ADAS Applications where Digital Map Data is a Key Component for Enhanced Accuracy and Results

Aisin, Toyota

Bosch, BMW

Aisin, Toyota

Curve Warning

ACC

Navimatic Transmission

Electronic Stability Control

Adaptive Front Lighting

Digital Map data key for

Many ADAS Applications

European Active Safety Market Growth Areas

Continental, Mercedes Benz

Visteon ( Ford)

Lane Departure Warning

Fuel Economy

Valeo, PSA

Aisin, Toyota

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide19

ADAS and Telematics Integration

Inaccurate map data information and defining, standardizing information exchange interface remains a major challenge

Short term20062012

Medium term 20122015

Long term 20162020

Map based applications

  • Speed Limit
  • Stop Light/Sign
  • Sharp Curve
  • Lane Merge
  • Pedestrian Crossing
  • No Passing Zone
  • Overtaking Zone

Fuel Economy and Emissions

  • Predictive Cruise Control
  • Predictive Shift Transmission
  • Hybrid Power Management

Map enabled ADAS systems

  • ACC
  • Adaptive Front Lightning
  • Collision avoidance
  • BSD
  • LDW
  • LCA
  • ACC stop & go

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide20

Technology Trends

Wireless LAN combines the advantage of affordability and bandwidth for vehicle communication requirement

Advantage

Shortcomings

Trend

Wireless LAN

Affordable , Good bandwidth

Accident hot spot coverage

Local Area communication

Infrared

Affordable and good bandwidth

Line of sight communication

Satellite data

Global availability

High cost low

speed

Digital satellite radio

Good availability

One way communication

Wide Area communication

AM/FM radio

Coverage and availability

One way communication

Cellular

Availability and coverage

High cost and low speed

Bluetooth

No license , affordable

Limited capacity

Near end communication

Infrared

No license , affordable

Line of sight communication

Low Interest / Involvement

High Interest / Involvement

Source: Frost & Sullivan

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide21

E-Call Implementation Pushed Ahead by a Year – Market Still in its Nascent Stages

E Call Market Forecast - Conservative Vs Optimistic Scenario

€1.84 billion market in 2015!

30-35% Realistic

  • Currently very few services operating in the European market – BMW Assist, Volvo on Call, Fiat Blue & Me Nav and some Opel models with the On star functionality
  • Member states have been asked to develop the necessary PSAP infrastructures for the smooth operation of E112 (Automotive & Telecom industry) – Germany signs the MOU for E Call only in June 2007
  • The smooth implementation of E call is expected to boost applications like b call, RVD which share the same hardware platform

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide22

TRW

Valeo

Visteon

Chassis Suppliers currently dominating Safety market – Expect non-Chassis Suppliers to Impact DAS market

Supplier

Chassis

Power train

Comfort

ADAS

Sensor Fusion

Harman Becker

Bosch

Continental/S VDO

Delphi

Denso

Hella

Legend:

High

Low

Source: Frost & Sullivan

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide23

Suppliers using 4 key methods to overcome barriers to market entry for Active Safety

Joint ventures with non-automotive companies for technology capabilities

Non-electronic suppliers expanding product portfolio to include Active safety

New Technology companies use partnership with Tier-1 suppliers to find their way to VMs

Co-development of Tier-1 / Tier-2 suppliers with Vehicle Manufacturers

+

+

+

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide24

Systems Already in Market

Tomorrow for DAS

HUD

DIY / Aftermarket Installed

Warning / Information Systems

TPMS

Park Assist

LDW

Indispensable for safe driving

Want / Incentivised by insurance

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Significant Aftermarket Potential for DAS – No “Breakthrough” Product Thus Far

Case Study - TomTom GO was launched in a market dominated by complex, expensive, built-in car navigation systems. TomTom GO managed to position itself not just as another technical product, but as an easy, smart and accessible consumer solution, moving to take a 56% market share

Source: TomTom

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide25

Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies

Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities

Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies

Conclusions & Recommendations

Agenda for Safety & DAS

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide26

List of Clients who invested in this VOC Multi-Client Study on Safety

  • Frost & Sullivan developed this study to enable manufacturers and suppliers to better understand the expectation of customers, their desirability for safety and willingness to pay.
  • The quality of the methodology is emphasised by 6 OEMs and 4 Tier 1 suppliers sponsoring the study.
  • List of clients for this study -

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide27

Across Europe, ‘traditional’ occupant protection and braking technologies are preferred over newer active technologies.

Voice of Customer Study on Safety – Europe

Q.10 How important are the following to you when you consider a package of safety features for your vehicle?

Source : Information from Consumer research study done with 1,635 respondents

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

features that aid driver vision
Features That Aid Driver Vision

Q.12e If you are making a decision to buy a new car, which safety features would you include?

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

relative importance of safety attributes europe
Relative Importance of Safety Attributes – EUROPE

Correct Speed

EnhanceBraking

Warn of Risks

Keep Distance

Aid Driver Vision

Protect : Collision

SOS : Collision

Providing protection to passengers in a collision, and the enhancement of braking, are the attributes most expected to be standard. Vehicles with these features will be considered for purchase.

Will Not Buy

Vehicle if Absent

Will Purchase

Vehicle if Standard

Likely Purchase

as an Option

Nice to Have

On average, speed correction, keeping distance, and summoning for emergency assistance (SOS) after a collision, are the attributes most considered for purchase as an option, and least expected to be standard.

Don’t Want It

* These are based on the mean scores of the importance ratings for each attribute.

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide30

Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies

Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities

Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies

Conclusions & Recommendations

Agenda for Safety & DAS

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

slide31

Consumers in Europe willing to pay for active safety systems, however not ready for autonomous driving – yet!!

BSD and LDW features present stronger market growth opportunities than ACC

Threat of new dimension to competition – Non-Chassis suppliers and aftermarket potential for DAS!

Success of DAS features will be significantly influenced by quality of HMI

Key Conclusions – Global Safety Market

Upgrading parking sensors to Automatic Parking units offers significant growth opportunities to suppliers

Pricing remains a key barrier preventing the wider uptake of many DAS features. Requires brave decisions.

© Frost & Sullivan 2008