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Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Spatially Explicit Individual Based Population Model (SIMSPAR) Model developed by M. Philip Nott, University of Tennessee (now at Institute for Bird Populations) for the ATLSS Program. U. S. Geological Survey, Florida Caribbean Science Center
Model developed by M. Philip Nott, University of Tennessee (now at Institute for Bird Populations) for the ATLSS Program.
U. S. Geological Survey, Florida Caribbean Science Center
Program website: atlss.org (for full documentation)
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
The SESI model combines the following for each spatial cell:
Like other ATLSS models, SIMSPAR uses:
Why 500 x 500 meter cells?
The Cape Sable seaside sparrow
Use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling
Life cycle, demographic and behavioral parameters (e.g. mortality) derived from field studies : Bass, Curnutt, Lockwood, Mayer & Pimm
The next slides show output from SIMSPAR:
SIMSPAR has been calibrated and evaluated for the ‘western’ subpopulation of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow.
The number of singing males counted in 1981 was used to set the initial number of sparrows in 1977.
Numbers of singing males in 1992-1997, used for evaluation, were in good agreement with model projections.
In addition to providing output for application to evaluation, the SEIB models are being used in other ways.
The effect of uncertainties is being studied for all ATLSS models
Changes in both average population size and coefficient of variance have been examined with respect to all important parameters, leading to results
What will the effects of sea level changes and altered water management be on vegetation and sparrow breeding success?
How extensive is shrub invasion of marl prairie at higher elevations and what are the expected effects on sparrow populations?
Example - Virtual helicopter survey in SIMSPAR
Modeling allows us to relate what we can measure to what we want to measure, although these may be related in a complex way.
The spatially explicit, individual-based model of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow was developed by Nott (1998), see also Elderd and Nott (submitted).
The original MatLab version of the model was delivered to ENP in 1998. A more efficient version of the model is now available.
Work is underway to further evaluate SIMSPAR using nesting success data (data provided by Julie Lockwood).
In particular, we will see how precisely SIMSPAR can predict the spatial and temporal patterns of nest initiation and success.