several challenges going forward l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Several Challenges Going Forward PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Several Challenges Going Forward

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 94

Several Challenges Going Forward - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 184 Views
  • Uploaded on

Several Challenges Going Forward. Know Zone Lecture The Tech 5 May 1999 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation. The two great inventions. The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Several Challenges Going Forward' - jacob


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
several challenges going forward

Several Challenges Going Forward

Know Zone Lecture

The Tech

5 May 1999

Gordon Bell

Microsoft Corporation

the two great inventions
The two great inventions
  • The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans
    • Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices… the challenge is to exploit them
    • Computers are built from other computers in a iterative, layered, and recursive fashion
  • The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957).
    • Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels
    • A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer technologies
moore s first law

1GB

128MB

1 chip memory size

( 2 MB to 32 MB)

8MB

1MB

128KB

8KB

1980

1990

2000

1970

256M

bits: 1K

4K

16K

64K

256K

1M

4M

16M

64M

Moore’s First Law
  • Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year
    • Chip density
    • Microprocessor speed
  • Exponential growth:
    • The past does not matter
    • 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change
  • PC costs decline faster than any other platform
    • Volume and learning curves
    • PCs are the building bricks of all future systems
bell s law of computer class formation

Mainframes (central)

Log price

WSs

PCs (personals)

Handheld ??

Time

Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation

Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance

Mini

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8

1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

bell s nine computer price tiers
Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers

1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card

10$: wrist watch & wallet computers

100$: pocket/ palm computers

1,000$: portable computers

10,000$: personal computers (desktop)

100,000$: departmental computers (closet)

1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)

10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)

100,000,000$: national centers

Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million

an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

extrapolation from 1950s 20 30 growth per year

Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

1

Storage

Backbone

Processing

Memory

??

Telephone Service17% / year

1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
gains if 20 40 60 year
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year

60%= Exaops

1.E+21

1.E+18

1.E+15

1.E+12

1.E +9

1.E+6

40%= Petaops

20%= Teraops

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

going forward seven challenges
Going forward… Seven challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

turing test you can t tell whether you are communicating with a person or a machine using
Turing test: you can’t tell whether you are communicating with a person or a machine using:
  • Text… limited context
  • Voice
    • context
    • speech to text and text to speed
  • Visual image and voice
    • more context
    • synthesis of dynamic, human images
going forward challenges
Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

everything cyberizable will be in cyberspace
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!

Body

Continent

Car

Region/

Intranet

Home

Campus,

including SANs

World

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

everything will be in cyberspace
“Everything will be in Cyberspace”
  • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or
  • Cyberization enables new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them
    • Infrastructure supports the content
    • Three evolutionary dimensions
cyberization interface to all bits and process information
Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
  • Coupling to all information and information processors
  • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
  • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
  • State of: places, things, and people
  • State of: physical networks
atoms vs electrons for bits
Atoms vs Electrons for bits

Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless)

people know computers know

bricks & mortar anywhere (personnel/clients)

office hours anytime

database & reports web access for review and transactions

letter & fax email & web access

phone email, voice & video mail

personal visits videophone / videomail

signature authenticated images

envelopes digital envelopes / store

voice, text are unique bits take on any form

slide16

By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1KBet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

why this is the keystone bet
Why this is the keystone bet!
  • It determines the market
    • for networks
    • for access devices… especially PCs
  • It says something about the utility
    • commerce
    • communication
    • entertainment
  • Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables
    • phones
    • videophones
    • television
    • serendipity
internetters growth
Internetters growth

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

World Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per year

Internet Growthextrapolated at 98% per year

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

cyberspace one two or three networks in 2005 2010 2020

Data

Telephony

Television

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

Will we have gateways?

going forward challenges21
Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

new or old money it s just bits
New or old money… it’s just bits

Credit

ATM /

Prepaid

Check

Cash

Prepaid

atoms vs electrons for financial bits
Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits

Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless)

money database, smart card, credit card, debit card

statements web access

bills / checks bill present. / check free

coupons cyber-coupons

stock database, web

statements, reports web access, email

+company infor, analyst reports, etc.

private placements web access, email

trade confirmation direct trades

mail voting on line voting

going forward challenges29
Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

telepresence being there while being here at another time and with time scaling
Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling
  • Telepresentations
  • Telemeetings and telecollaboration
  • The “work”
motivation telepresentations
Motivation:Telepresentations
  • Presenter and/or audience telepresent
  • NOT: meeting or collaboration settings
    • Forget the nasty social issues!

Mostly one-way

telepresentation elements
TelepresentationElements
  • Slides
  • Audio
  • Video
  • Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.
telepresentations the essentials
Telepresentations:The Essentials
  • Slide and audio a must
  • Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good
  • Storage and transmission costs low
telepresentations the killer app
Telepresentations:The Killer App
  • Increased attendance & lower travel costs
  • Practical and low-cost NOW
  • e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97
telework it s the sound screens and bandwidth stupid
Telework: it’s the sound, screens, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

by april 1 2001 videophones will ship in 50 of the pcs and be in use
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)

soho small office home office network computing environment
SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment

POTS (legacy services)

IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps

NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute

LAN

PC

NC*

PC

*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.

...

...

Phone

Phone

Phone

telepresence challenge
Telepresence Challenge

hold a meeting of type, m

university or technical course

interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,

with p, distributed persons

with as much interactivity and feeling

such that people prefer being telepresent

meetings are provably more productive

meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

millibill
MilliBill
  • Large, general purpose panel
    • Paintings, photos, videos, a new art medium, and
    • even TV
    • Becomes a true “window” to anywhere
  • Voice interface
  • Evolves to cover entire wall so that everyone can be by a “window”
going forward challenges52
Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

slide56

Not shown: ECG; GPS;

Compass; altimeter

PCS; Pilot

Libretto, .5mm pencil

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

ban pan or whatever for people networks
BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks
  • Temperature monitoring with the flu
  • Saved me from a heart attack
  • Where is the person, exactly… a baby sitter
  • Let’s interact… ala Barney
4 experts predict bionics wired february 1997
4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997
  • Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
  • Bionic Limbs 2013
  • Artificial Vision 2040
  • Bionic Person (unlikely)
going forward challenges63
Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

slide64

The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory…When we can store everything we’ve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical parameters.

what does cyber admin do
Captures the creation of all personal/professional information

Stores and organizes

Retrieval is the challenge

recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images

helps the “guardian angel”

What are the apps?

when we can do this?

What does Cyber Admin do?
vannevar bush c 1945
Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.

memex … stores all one’s books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photography

my project putting my legacy and future bits in cyberspace http www research microsoft
My project … putting my legacy and future bits in Cyberspacehttp://www.research.microsoft/
  • Personal paper documents
    • Books (encoded by CMU), papers, articles, memos, notes, email, notebooks, drawings
  • Encode video and audio lectures
  • Current electronic media
    • email, files, papers, photos (now digital)
    • voice notes and records
  • Would like to capture photos and slides
the other side finding and getting the bits out of cyberspace
The other side… finding and getting the bits out of Cyberspace
  • Retrieval is the next challenge
    • Database(s)
    • Indexers (Magnifi, Virage, etc.)
    • Icons so people can help the computer
  • Being able to see and use electronic bits as well as paper bits will have to wait until display technology appears
coexisting with paper
Coexisting with Paper
  • Paper is the best GUI (screen dump) without peer
    • portable: read anywhere, anyway, anytime
    • contrast ratio
    • resolution (3-30x screens)
    • form factor, weight
    • ubiquity, cost, infrastructure
    • with good OCR, it is a loss-less medium
  • For many documents, paper is very expensive
    • large and multiple documents are heavy
    • hard to transmit
    • difficult to store (only access is via people)
    • computer cannot access them
  • Goal: use paper as a loss-less “bit” medium
computer paper co existence
Computer-Paper Co-existence
  • Goals for encoding paper for the computer
    • Handling must be as easy as discarding it
    • Input, Identify, OCR, Index, save, and retrieve in every possible context
    • Interface: unobtrusive and humane
  • Put all documents in Cyberspace
    • Ubiquitous scanners are key!
    • Totally eliminate the need for copiers
    • Totally eliminate the need for file cabinets
storing all we ve read written heard said seen participated
Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (said), & seen (participated)

Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetime

read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G

speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 T

video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

now how do you find or use the rich information
Now how do you find or use the rich information

The system must: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.

smartmedia technologies
SmartMedia Technologies

Context Relevance

Image Recognition for Objects

Speech Recognition

Image Recognition, Lexical Cues

Transcripts

Close Caption

Lexical Analysis

Viewing

Color

Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork

B&W

Brightness

Contrast

Volume

Speech-Music

Meta Information

going forward challenges83
Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

billions of clients need millions of servers
Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers
  • All clients networked to servers
    • May be nomadicor on-demand
  • Fast clients wantfaster servers
  • Servers provide
    • Shared Data
    • Control
    • Coordination
    • Communication

Clients

Mobileclients

Fixedclients

Servers

Server

Super

server

cluster shared what
Cluster: Shared What?
  • Shared Memory Multiprocessor
    • Multiple processors, one memory
    • all devices are local
    • DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
  • Shared Disk Cluster
    • an array of nodes
    • all shared common disks
    • VAXcluster + Oracle
  • Shared Nothing Cluster
    • each device local to a node
    • ownership may change
    • Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack
snap scalable networks and platforms
SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
  • Standard (I.e. commodity) platform
  • The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the network ubiquitous … and great!
  • Common operating system for platform, reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps
  • Cluster technology
  • Apps are TRANSPARENT!!!
snap systems circa 2000
SNAP Systems circa ­ 2000

Local &

global data

comm

world

Mobile

Nets

Legacy

mainframe &

minicomputer

servers & terminals

Portables

Wide-area global

ATM network

A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment

Person

servers

(PCs)

ATM & Ethernet:

to PC, workstation,

& servers

scalable computers built from PCs & SANs

Telecomputers

aka Internet Terminals

???

Centralized

& departmental

servers built from

PCs

TC=TV+PC

home ...

(CATV or ATM

or satellite)

scaling dimensions include
Scaling dimensions include:
  • reliability… including always up
  • number of nodes
    • most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane
    • highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node
  • location within a region or continent
  • time-scale I.e. machine generations
u s tax dollars at work asci for stockpile stewardship
Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro

LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)

LNL/Cray: ?

Maui Supercomputer Center

512x1 SP2

U.S. Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile Stewardship
the alliance les nt supercluster
The Alliance LES NT Supercluster

“Supercomputer performance at mail-order prices”-- Jim Gray, Microsoft

  • Andrew Chien, CS UIUC-->UCSD
  • Rob Pennington, NCSA
  • Myrinet Network, HPVM, Fast Msgs
  • Microsoft NT OS, MPI API

192 HP 300 MHz

64 Compaq 333 MHz

slide91
The Grid:Blueprint for a New Computing InfrastructureIan Foster, Carl Kesselman (Eds),Morgan Kaufmann, 1999
  • Published July 1998;

ISBN 1-55860-475-8

  • 22 chapters by expert authors including:
    • Andrew Chien,
    • Jack Dongarra,
    • Tom DeFanti,
    • Andrew Grimshaw,
    • Roch Guerin,
    • Ken Kennedy,
    • Paul Messina,
    • Cliff Neuman,
    • Jon Postel,
    • Larry Smarr,
    • Rick Stevens,
    • Charlie Catlett
    • John Toole
    • and many others

“A source book for the history

of the future” -- Vint Cerf

http://www.mkp.com/grids

infinite or indefinite parallelism use installed machines
Infinite or indefinite parallelism… use installed machines
  • 10,000 nodes in 1998 or 10x Increase
  • Assume 100K nodes
  • 10 Gflops/10GBy/100GB nodes or low end c2010 PCs
  • Communication is first problem… use the network
  • Programming is still the major barrier
  • Will any problems fit it