GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD PROVISION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

1. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD PROVISION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA • Explorations for a possible GECAFS research project in southern Africa • Team members: Martin Muchero, Pauline Dube and Jaap Arntzen

2. GECAFS Research questions •  How might the projected climate change stresses further affect the food systems of Southern Africa; who and which place will be most vulnerable to these changes? • What are the other key determinants of short and long-term food provision that needs to be addressed simultaneously with GEC? • What measures can be put in place to minimise impacts of GEC and or take advantage of positive trends that may arise from these changes? • What is likely to be the short and long-term feedback from measures adopted specifically to avert negative impacts or take advantage of changes in climate patterns?

3. Work programme • Identify potential stakeholders and data sources; • Solicit research needs from policy makers and scientists in southern Africa; • Outline key research issues for potential GECAFS Southern Africa project

4. Methods used • Interviews • Literature review • Review of statistics • Review of info on GEC and southern Africa

5. Report structure • Classification of food systems and trends in food provision • Main socioeconomic and physical features of southern Africa • Main regional policy and research initiatives • Identification of research topics for three GECAFS themes

6. Food resources and provision • Food provision is about ensuring that people take in sufficient variety of substances to maintain life and growth. • Range of food resources, including cereals and other conventionally cultivated crops, vegetables, fruits and edible oils, Meat, milk and dairy products, fishery products; and other (non-conventional) products collected from the natural environment or cultivated.

7. Food systems • Food production systems determined by: • Type of food produced • Method of production • Production strategy • Classification: see table 1. • Food availability determined by production, transport, distribution and storage capacity • Food accessibility determined by availability and income generation, distribution and pricing.

8. Regional trends in food provision • Declining p. c. food production • Under-utilisation of agricultural land resources • Small size of irrigated food production • Declining p.c. food consumption • Maize is most important cereal. Sorghum and millet confined to driest areas. • Difference between comparative advantage for crops and actual crops grown • Government support has stimulated maize production

9. Food trends continued • Livestock production mostly in South Africa, Tanzania and countries such as Botswana and Namibia • Sufficient grain storage capacity for regional production • Transport and communication networks are poor

10. GEC and food production in southern Africa • Changes in production potential of maize and certain trees. • Negative and positive impacts on food production and provision (south --; north +) • Lower rangeland productivity in southern parts • A decrease in rangeland quality in southern Africa • Changes in water cycle and availability in combination with growing water competition • Growing poverty in affected areas, restricting adaptive capacity

11. Development-environment challenges • Reducing poverty and hunger • Accelerate economic and agricultural growth • Increased access to drinking water and sanitation; • Political and economic stability • Regional integration and specialisation • Improved natural resource management • More productive use of natural resources • Regional specialisation based on comparative natural advantages • Water scarcity • International-regional commitments

12. GECAFS challenge in southern Africa • Southern Africa is unique for GECAFS as food insecurity is a growing problem in southern Africa, and for many countries within the region. • Existing regional efforts on food provision are mostly short-term oriented, aiming to revive agricultural growth and development.

13. Research issues for theme 1 • Integrating long-term GEC concerns and impacts in the short-term struggle to improve food provision • Detailed assessment of GEC on the major food products and transport and distribution systems • Establishing an inventory of traditional knowledge on past GEC and vulnerabilities experienced then • Vulnerability assessment (areas, groups, products) • Shifts in production belts of cropsand animals • Potential for new income-generating products • Changes in water availability and requirements • Identification of areas with enhanced and reduced food production potential and linking these systems

14. Research issues for theme 2 • Identify and evaluate the possible adaptations mechanisms; • Identifyand learn from past and current coping mechanisms employed by vulnerable groups in their day-to-day food supply systems • Analyse and strengthen the capability of communities and countries to adapt as much as possible • Identify the most suitable level at which each adaptation should be carried out.

15. Research issues theme 2 continued • Data generation and dissemination: • Monitoring and early warning systems (climate, local production, regional and global markets); • Focused information on adaptation options available including research on alternative crops or livestock species; • Vulnerability assessments (areas, groups); • Dissemination of information-data • Wide range of agricultural and non-agricultural adaptations • .

16. Research issues theme 3 • Possible environmental impacts of adaptations include: • Changes in biodiversity due to GMO andextending the agricultural frontier • Agricultural pollution associated with useof fertiliser andpesticides • Water logging and salination due to irrigation • Land degradation due to agriculturalpressure and use of less suitable land • Increase water scarcity due to irrigation.

17. Research issues Theme 3 continued • Development impacts include: • Extra costs of agricultural production due to GEC • Changes in consumer patterns and loss of economic access for those engaged in food production/processing • Extra costs of food imports • Mobilisation of international funds for mitigation/ adaptation measures • Future of food aid • Over-exploitation of resources • Intense competition for resources in favoured regions in response to developed intra-regional trade

18. Proposed GECAFS projects in southern Africa • Three interlinked projects • Project 1: in southwest/central part of southern Africa where production potential is adversely affected by GEC. • Research issues: • GEC impact on food production and livelihoods; • Adaptation mechanisms and their impacts • Project 2: located in north-western parts with an enhanced production potential • Research issues: • Expected positive impact on food production • Shifts in crop and animal production belts

19. Proposed GECAFS projects in southern Africa • The projects would be linked by transport, trade and policy issues, including regional integration and specialisation (project 3). • Project 3: Regional agricultural trade • Location: region-wide (SADC) • Research issues: • Regional transport and food distribution networks • Regional food security and reserves • Policies and governance • Regional specialisation, integration and trade