Climate Change and Food Security in Southern Africa Adopting a multi-level research approach

1. Climate Change and Food Security in Southern Africa Adopting a multi-level research approach John Ingram GECAFS Executive Officer Natural Environment Research Council

2. Projected climate change in southern Africa Slightly warmer Much warmer Drier Wetter a) b) HADCM3 climate model projections of changes in a) temperature and b) precipitation for 2050 relativeto mean conditions over the 1961 to 1990 period, under the IPCC SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario. MEA SAfMA Report, 2004

3. Key southern African climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goals Southern Africa • Issues • Increasing climate variability & ENSO • Veld degradation and biodiversity loss • Reduced water availability • Key Policy Goals • Enhanced rural infrastructure & market access • Better disaster response & “safety nets” • Strong agricultural development to help achieve food security Example Stakeholders National ag & env ministries Regional universities Regional IGOs & NGOs (SADC, NEPAD, FANRPAN) International agencies (e.g. WFP, DfID, USAID, FEWSNet)

4. GECAFS-Southern Africa (SAF) Science Plan Three Overarching Questions Q1: How will changes in climate (and in other environmental parameters) affect the vulnerability of food systems in different parts of the region? Q2: How can food systems be adapted using technical and policy options to cope and improve food security? Q3: How will various adaptation options feedback on environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

5. Each Question addressed at three “levels” Local-level questions, researched in case-studies (e.g. districts) at the sub-regional level. Regional-level questions, to address issues relating to the region as a whole (top-down view of the region). Cross-level questions, which integrate output from case studies up to the regional level (bottom-up view of the region).

6. Example Questions for Food System Vulnerability (Q1) • Local-level • Which aspects of local food systems (activities and outcomes) are currently most vulnerable to environmental stress and which stresses are most threatening? • Regional-level • Which aspects of GEC as manifesting at the regional-level are most important in relation to long-term development and food aid? • Cross-level • What are the trends in food availability, access and utilisation across the region?

7. Example Questions for Food System Adaptation (Q2) • Local-level • What local-level technical, policy and institutional adaptation strategies will reduce food system vulnerability? • Regional-level • Which aspects of regional cooperation need to be improved (e.g. trade, infrastructure, strategic reserves, transboundary water management) to help reduce vulnerabilities of food systems? • Cross-level • How will interactions among regional-level and local-level food system adaptation strategies affect conditions and decision-making at local level?

8. Example Questions for Feedbacks (Q3) • Local-level • How would different adaptation strategies change local biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling and national greenhouse gas budgets? • Regional-level • How would improved regional cooperation aimed at reducing vulnerabilities of food systems affect international trade? • Cross-level • How would different adaptation strategies across the region help achieve SADC’s food security goal?

9. GECAFS-SAF Strategic Collaborations • Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) • Intra-regional policy networking • Host organisation • International Council for Science-Regional Office for Africa (ICSU-ROA) • Intra-regional science networking • Inter-regional science networking

10. GECAFS Southern Africa Science Plan / FANRPAN ICSU-ROA / Science Agencies Development Agencies Policy Makers Resource Managers e.g. NRF, ICSU-Africa improved GEC/food systems science e.g. CARE, FAO, DFID/IDRC improved livelihoods & reduced vulnerability e.g. SADC, national ag & env ministries improved food security policies e.g. farmers, range conservation NGOs improved food security & nat resource mgmt How can Southern African food systems be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to GEC? GECAFS Conceptual Research Plan Social Science Natural Science ESSP • e.g. • climate variability • land degradation • biodiversity loss • e.g. • vulnerability • resource tenure • social capital

11. GECAFS-SAF 5-year implementation • 1. ~ 5 Case Studies across the region, each addressing the food systems questions relating to GEC vulnerability and impacts, adaptation options and feedbacks. • 2. Regional Scientific Networking, to link case study research with other relevant research in the region and internationally. • 3. Science-Policy Interface, linking national researchers with policymakers, the private sector, civil society and representatives of regional food security programmes.

12. Principal GECAFS-SAF outputs • Improved understanding of how GEC will additionally affect food security across the region and among different socioeconomic groups • Assessments of how adaptation strategies designed to cope with GEC and changing demands for food will affect the environment, societies and economies • Enhanced regional research capacity in food security and environmental issues • Strengthened regional policy formulation capacity for food security and environmental governance • Policy recommendations for adaptation options