Global Environmental Change and Food Systems “GECAFS”

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems “GECAFS”

Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influencedby human activities For example changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Food System a means of considering, in an holistic manner, the links between a number of factors “from plough to plate”. A Food System approach principally includes consideration of: Production Harvesting Storage Processing Distribution Consumption

World cereal yield and area harvested per capita (from Dyson, 1996)

Emerging issues for world food production(adapted from IFPRI, 1997) Fresh water supplies Soil fertility and fertilizer use Climate variability and climate change Trade liberalization and market reform Applications of emerging technologies

Estimated global water scarcity in 2050 (from Wallace, 2000) Regions are coded according to their per capita annual renewable freshwater resource (m3/person/year). < 1000 1000 - 2000 > 2000

Global Assessment of Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD) (from Oldeman et al., ISRIC 1990) No degradation Light soil degradation Moderate soil degradation Severe soil degradation

Climate Extremes

Changed precipitation patterns (from Watson, CGIAR ICWG-CC w/s, Nairobi April 2002)

Food Provision Provision = f (production, availability, access) Production = f (yield, area) Availability = f (production, distribution, storage) Access = f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality])

International Global Change Research Programmes Scientific research Research capacity-building Integration and synthesis International scientific networks Joint Projects: Carbon, Water and Food (GECAFS)

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems “GECAFS”

CGIAR & NARS GECAFS FAO IIASA WMO MA GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes and Strategic Partners example collaborations in grey

GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of Global Environmental Change on food provision systems and to analyse the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptation.

Global Environmental Change (GEC) and Food Systems Fundamental Questions • Given changing demands for food, how will GEC additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups? • How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems to cope with GEC against the background of changing demand? • What would be the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of such adaptations?

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Capacity to Cope &/or Recover from GEC Exposure to GEC SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. GEC and Food System Vulnerability FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY

Theme 1 – Vulnerability and Impacts • Effects of Global Environmental Change on Food Provision • Overarching questions • In which regions and to what extent are food production and provision potentially sensitive to GEC, and why? • How will anticipated changes in food production due to GEC influence the availability and accessibility of food? • To what extent might anticipated changes in socioeconomic conditions influence the impacts of GEC on food production potential?

Theme 2 – Adaptations • Global Environmental Change and Options for Enhancing Food Provision • Overarching questions • How have food production systems coped with or adapted to environmental variability and change in the past? • What types of GEC will exceed the thresholds and speed of adaptive responses of current food production systems? • Are existing institutions capable of providing effective adaptation options? • What are the future costs to food provision of delaying the implementation of response strategies to GEC?

Theme 3 – Feedbacks • Environmental and Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food Systems • Overarching questions • How and to what extent will the environment be affected by adapting food systems in response to both changing demands and GEC? • What are the socio-economic consequences of these adaptations? • To what extent are management responses effective in mitigating GEC and consistent with socioeconomic capacities?

GECAFS Science Themes Socioeconomic Change Global Environmental Change Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Food Provision Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks

GECAFS Scientific Framework • The scientific framework will be provided by IGBP, IHDP and WCRP building on their respective strengths of: • internationally-agreed science agendas which specifically include “impacts”, “adaptation” and “feedbacks” research • well-developed coordination and synthesis mechanisms and will be further developed by consolidating links between the Global Change science community and research organisations working on agricultural, policy formulation and development issues.

GECAFS Regional Research Projects • Based on a strongly interdisciplinary approach and include all 3 GECAFS Science Themes • Designed to improve regional-level policy formulation for increasing preparedness and reducing vulnerability to GEC • Address issues identified in consultation with regional policy makers and the regional and international science and donor communities • Maintain close links between researchers and end-users in project design, implementation and reporting & interpretation • Develop research agendas of equal interest to development and science agencies

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems “GECAFS”