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Agriculture Can We Feed The World?

Agriculture Can We Feed The World? Grant R. Cramer Plant Biology 330 Fall 2001 Humanity has grown in numbers over time 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Millions of people 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Year Global Population Continues to Rise

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Agriculture Can We Feed The World?

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  1. AgricultureCan We Feed The World? Grant R. Cramer Plant Biology 330 Fall 2001

  2. Humanity has grown in numbers over time 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Millions of people 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Year

  3. Global Population Continues to Rise

  4. Different Assumptions, Different Projections

  5. Fertility Declines, Real and Projected

  6. Decrease in population growth rate • NOT associated with wealth, gross national product or economic development • IS associated with increased education, especially the education of mothers

  7. More Children Are Attending School

  8. More Adults Can Read

  9. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Yields Are Up, But Growth is Slowing 5 4 3 Yield (metric tons/hectare) 2 1 0 Wheat Yield Maize Yield Rice Yield

  10. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Maize Yields Are Up, But Growth is Slowing 12 10 8 % Increase in Yield 6 4 2 0 -2 Wheat Paddy Rice

  11. Trends in Per Capita Food Production

  12. Intensive Agricultural has Benefited Mankind • 24% more food per person today than in 1961 despite an increase of 89% more people • 40% lower food prices than in 1961 (in real terms)

  13. Demand for Food Growing Faster than Population • Increase in affluence leads to greater meat consumption • Meat production growing 50% faster than crop production • Meat production much more energy intensive • 7 kg of grain per kg of pork; 5 kg of grain per 1 kg of beef; 2 to 3 kg of grain per kg of eggs, cheese or poultry

  14. Despite Gains, Millions Go Hungry

  15. Final Analysis • Economic and agricultural development do not necessarily abolish hunger • Equitable distribution is also important and is governed by social, economic and political influences

  16. Weather and Climate Profoundly Affect Crop Production • Affects sunlight, moisture, temperature and natural disasters • By far, the lack of water is the most significant constraint to agricultural production in all agricultural zones: tropical, sub-tropical and temperate • Temperature also constrains crop production in the temperate zones

  17. Humans Can Affect the Climate and Influence Agricultural Production • Desertification in the Sahel • Greenhouse Effect

  18. Global warming enhanced by emissions of man-made gases Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

  19. Greenhouse gas warming

  20. Much is known with certainty about global warming: • Existence of natural greenhouse effect is established beyond doubt • Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are increasing • The temperature of the earth is increasing. 1998 the hottest in at least 1000 years. • Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over past 100 years) • Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere for centuries

  21. CO2 is building up in the atmosphere Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

  22. Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations Data Source: D.M. Etheridge et al. Concentrations of CH4 from the Law Dome (East Side, "DE08" Site) Ice Core(a), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia. September 1994. Available: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/methane/lawdome.259. M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen, and F. Moraes. "Atmospheric methane at Cape Meares: Analysis of a high resolution data base and its environmental implications." Journal of Geophysical Research 98:14,753-14,770. 1993. Available: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/db1007/cmeares.mon

  23. Earth’s temperature continues to rise rapidly Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

  24. Earth is projected to grow warmer Source: Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC

  25. The polar ice cap is melting

  26. Uncertainties still persist • Timing and regional impacts • The effects of increased cloudiness • Uncertain health and ecological impacts • Possible surprises from unanticipated effects

  27. More impacts of global warmingcan be expected • More health effects from the spread of tropical diseases, heat waves, and so-called “natural disasters” • Loss of agricultural land in developing countries • Disappearance of ecosystems that are unable to migrate

  28. Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996 Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  29. Per capita emissions of carbon from industrial sources, 1996 Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  30. Vehicle numbers are rising dramatically

  31. Motor vehicle use is highest in developed countries

  32. Success story: CFC production has fallen sharply

  33. How Much Arable Land is There • Only 12% of the world soils are arable • 26% is for pastures • 31% for forests

  34. World Agricultural Land Distribution • Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa and the former Soviet Union have the most agricultural land • Europe (71%), South Asia (73%) and Southeast Asia (47%) have highest percentage of total land as agricultural land • 70% of South Asia and Southeast Asia agricultural land is the most intensive

  35. Increased resource use for increased crop production • Introduction of new crops • Mechanization • New and improved varieties • Inorganic fertilizers • Irrigation • Pesticides

  36. More fertilizer: More food

  37. Food Supply Increasingly Relies on Irrigation

  38. Irrigated Soils Today • 15% of the arable soils • Twice as productive as rain-fed soils • Produce a third of the world’s food • Subject to salinization in semi-arid environments

  39. Are These Practices Sustainable? What are the impacts of • Land Degradation • Energy • Pesticides • Genetically Uniform Crops

  40. Land Degradation • 15% of total world soils (1964 Mha of 13,077 Mha) lost to soil degradation in the last 45 years • 38% of cropland; 21% of pasture; 18% of forests resulting in 13% loss in productivity for croplands • Most of this lost is due to wind and water erosion (1725 Mha) • Nutrient loss (135 Mha) • Salinity (77 Mha)

  41. Human-Induced Degradation • 35% attributed to overgrazing • 28% attributed to agricultural-related management • 29% attributed to deforestation

  42. Degraded Soil Means Less Food World Totals (million hectares) Vegetation Removal 579 Overexploitation 133 Overgrazing 679 Agricultural Activities 522 Industrial and Bioindustrial 23

  43. Forest Loss Is Severe in the Tropics

  44. Many of Earth’s Forests Have Been Cleared or Degraded

  45. Amazon Deforestation Remains High

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