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ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow Professor of Economics Mercer University January 26, 2010

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ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow Professor of Economics Mercer University January 26, 2010

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    1. ON THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & BUSINESS CLIMATE Roger Tutterow Professor of Economics Mercer University January 26, 2010 Atlanta, GA

    3. Institute of Supply Management’s “PMI”

    4. CONSUMER SENTIMENT

    5. OIL & CONSUMER SENTIMENT

    6. Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls)

    7. Change in Employment

    8. Change in Employment: GEORGIA vs. US

    9. Change in Employment: ATLANTA vs. GA

    10. Tale of Two Cities: Part 1 ATHENS vs. GA

    11. Tale of Two Cities: Part 2 DALTON vs. GA

    12. Leading Economic Indicators % change in last 6 months

    13. INFLATION: Risk Shifts ? CPI was up 0.1% in December after being up 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2% in previous 3 months. Core up 0.1% in December, after unchanged up 0.2% and up 0.2% in previous 3 months. Overall CPI up at an 2.7% annual rate over last 12 months. Core up 1.8% over same period. Energy prices up 18.2% over last 12 months.

    14. CORE CPI

    15. CRUDE OIL (Spot Price, West Texas Crude)

    16. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

    17. THE RISK PREMIUM (Moody’s BAA less 10-Year Treasury Bond) (source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System)

    18. COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES

    19. C&I Lending StillTightening? (Net % Tightening Standards for C&I Loans)

    20. CRE Lending Tighter As Well? (Net % Tightening Standards for CRE Loans)

    21. NEW HOME SALES (Single Family, SSAR in thousands)

    22. BUILDING PERMITS: ATLANTA MSA (12 month moving average)

    24. CS/S&P HOME PRICE INDEX (FROM PEAK TO SEPTEMBER 2009)

    25. Commercial Vacancy Rates

    26. Federal Budget Surplus (source: US Department of Treasury)

    27. Federal Budget Surplus (source: US Department of Treasury)

    28. EQUITY MARKETS (1 Year)

    29. EQUITY MARKETS (2 Year)

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