Paper proposal. Theme: The customer demand forecasting for E-SCM applications. Zhang Shuzhu. Background:. E-SCM Forecasting Bullwhip effect. Previous knowledge:. Longer lead times and poor selection of forecasting model parameters lead to strong bullwhip effect in E-SCM;
The customer demand forecasting for E-SCM applications
1.The actual customer demand emerges at the marketplace, and the retailer fulfills the customer demand by on-hand inventory, and any unfulfilled customer demands are backordered.
here we suppose that retailer use (s, S) policy .
s=LT*AVG + z*STD* √LT
S=Q + s
2. We assume that the supplier delivers all orders of the on-line retailer after a fixed lead time (L) so that it will simplify the retailer’s replenishment policy.
We’ll try to find which kinds of parameters, methods, or factors can be used to keep the bullwhip ration low, while at the same time to increase forecast accuracy.