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Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation rbyrne@mitre.org. ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World (using the science of complexity). OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the Peace Hard?. ACQUISITION: Have We Lost the Recipe for Big Programs?.

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Rich byrne vice president the mitre corporation rbyrne@mitre org

Rich Byrne

Vice President, The MITRE Corporation

rbyrne@mitre.org

‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World(using the science of complexity)


Operations why is winning a war easy but keeping the peace hard
OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the Peace Hard?



Cyber how do you fight a virtual war where the enemy has the all the asymmetric advantages
CYBER:How Do You Fight a Virtual War where the Enemy has the all the Asymmetric Advantages?


And it s not just in the dod
And It’s Not Just in the DOD

Financial Meltdown

Healthcare

Crisis


Complexity theory may have an answer
Complexity Theory May Have an Answer!

2002

2009

2003

2007

2005


Unpredictable emergent behavior is ubiquitous
Unpredictable Emergent Behavior is Ubiquitous

From

‘Fixed Perfect’ Requirements

(watchmaker)

to

‘Adapting Good Enough” Requirements

(gardener)


Adapting good enough successes 80 solution
‘Adapting Good Enough’ Successes(80% Solution)

>60%

of Army systems in theater aren’t Programs of Record

CPOF

TIGR

ROVER

GMTI

Predator

Falconview

Innovation Easier Than Integration

(Healthy Complex Networks a Balance!)


Adapting good enough for a complex world using the science of complexity

Composable Capability on Demand

(Harmonizing Innovation with Integration)

RSS, Mashups, Chat, Office

APPLICATIONS

Loose Couplers for Global Integration across “Groups”

SOA1

SOA2

SOA3

ESB

ERP

Web2.0

REST

CoT, UCORE, Ontologies

INFO INFRASTRUCTURE

TADILJ

Link-22

Nato-Ex

JVMF

USMTF

EPLRS

ACARS

IP Gateways, IPoL, IP

Continuous and Rapid Local

Innovations in “Groups”

NETWORKS

INMARSAT

JTIDS

JTRS

ARC210

TTNT

CTII

PRC117

GeoRSS, SensorXML

SENSORS

SIGINT

IMINT

OSINT

MASINT

Cellphones

Humans

Commercial


Adapting good enough for a complex world using the science of complexity

Virtualization

(A Key Enabler of CCoD)

  • SPEED

  • ISPAN: Deployment from 1-12 wks to 8 hrs

  • WEIGHT

  • TDC: Reduced from 1800 to 600 lbs

  • FOOTPRINT

  • AOC: 60% less machines, 78% less power/HVAC

  • ADAPTABILITY

  • Composable Ops Centers on Demand using App Stores


Large networks have radically different statistics
Large NetworksHave Radically Different Statistics

From

Bell Curves

to

Power Laws


Loose couplers applied to enterprise data sharing

Direct Fire Mission:

What: Hostile

Where: 72.558º...

When: 1950Z—…

Details: www. biggun.army//...

Surveillance results:

What: ISR data

Where: 73º—74º...

When: 1930Z—…

Details: www. intel.af//...

Blue Force Tracking:

What: Friendly

Where: 72.31234º...

When: 1930Z—…

Details: www.4thBgd//...

Air Space Deconfliction:

What: Reservation

Where: 72º, 73º, 74º,

When: 1950Z—…

Details: www. batttery.army...

Loose Couplers Applied toEnterprise Data Sharing


Uav data sharing using loose couplers based on power laws

UAV SA JFCOM Cmdr. James M. Joyner, “a de facto standard for tactical system integration." (1/06/05)

Scan Eagle

UAV Data Sharing Using Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)

Predator-Link16

“we are using the C2PC adapter for our Scan Eagle UAV’s. ..working extremely well…we want more!”

S/F, Maj Rob Buzby

IMEF Info Management Officer

Camp Fallujah Iraq (11/12/04)

Pioneer


Loose couplers at network level

Diverse Local Innovations Above and Below the Convergent IP Loose Coupler

Loose Couplers at Network Level

Ecommerce

Applications

Searches

Email

Application

Diversity

Targeting

Payroll

DWM

Datalinks

Ethernet

Dial-Up

Cable Modem

ATM

Technologies

IP

(loose coupler) IP

IP (loose coupler)

DSL

Datalink

Diversity

SONET

Datalinks

SONET

Dial-Up

ATM

Ethernet

Cable Modem

Technologies

DWM

DSL


Jstars awacs ip chat as loose couplers based on power laws

IP-Based Loose Coupler System

E-mail

Imagery

SA

Chat

IP Transport

Radio Driver

PC + Legacy

Radio

JSTARS & AWACS IP/Chat as Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)


Self organizing critical states are natural
Self-Organizing Loose Coupler Critical States Are Natural

From

Centralized

(single failure point)

to

Decentralized

(distributed failure points)



Accept uncertainty
Accept Uncertainty Loose Coupler

From

Protection

(they will get in)

to

Resilience

(fight thru attack)


Adapting good enough for a complex world using the science of complexity

Resilient Cyber Solutions Loose Coupler (Reversing the Asymmetric Advantage)

Constantly Change the Attack Surface from a Million Random Variations

VM ‘physics’ is very different

Assume Attacks Will Succeed

& Rebuild VMs Routinely

Separate Internal/External

Networks to Slow Down

Massive Data Exfiltration


Complexity best shaped with long term not short term variables
Complexity Best Shaped with Loose Coupler Long Term not Short Term Variables

From

Short Term Targets (symptoms)

to

Long Term Targets (underlying diseases)


Smart power s longer term focus for deep security

Internet and Loose Coupler Proselytizing

Recruitment and Education

Media and Propaganda

WMD Research and Development

Safe Havens

$

Facilitators, Smugglers

Financiers and Front Companies

Ideologically

Sympathetic NGOs

Sympathetic Members

of Legitimate Govt’s

Human Capital

Fighters and Leaders

Technical Expertise

Weapons Suppliers

Training Camps

Smart Power’s Longer Term FocusFor “Deep Security”

AQAM

EXTREMIST

IDEOLOGY


Adapting good enough for a complex world
‘Adapting Loose Coupler GoodEnough’for aComplex World

Emergent Behavior (CCoD)From: Perfect, fixed req’ts

To: Adaptive, good enough req‘ts

Power Laws (LOOSE COUPLERS)From: Uniform data interopreq’ts

To: 80/20 data interopreq’ts

SOC (POWER TO THE EDGE)From: Centralized solutions

To: Decentralized solutions

Uncertainty (FIGHT THRU ATTACK)From: Eliminating uncertainty/risk

To: Accepting uncertainty/risk

Deep Security (SMART POWER)From: Short-term symptoms

To: Long-term diseases


Changing impossible problems into great opportunities
Changing Impossible Problems Into Great Opportunities Loose Coupler

CYBER: Taking Back the Initiative in Cyber

  • Asymmetry: Dramatically increase the cost of cyber attacks

  • Mission focus: Use technology for effectiveness, not efficiency

  • Doctrine: Learn to leverage the ‘new’ physics of cyber (time, space, cost)

OPERATIONS: Winning Battles of Complexity

  • Decentralize: Push power to the edge

  • Adapt: Enable warriors to compose new capabilities on demand

  • Focus: Address the long term networks, not just the short term threats

ACQUISITIONS: Getting Back the Recipe

  • Cost: Maintain continuous competition and evolution of small things

  • Schedule: Build integrate-able components not integrated systems

  • Performance: Fixed perfect req’ts become adaptive good enough req’ts


Adapting good enough for a complex world1

Enterprise Systems Eng Loose Coupler

The Gardener: Plant, Fertilize, Weed; Repeat.

Dynamic: Constant Change

Competitive: Crops compete

Scale Free: 80-20 Rule

‘Adapting Good Enough’For a Complex World

Traditional Systems Eng

The Watchmaker: Everything has its place.

Static: As Is – To Be Views

Passive: One Design Choice

Uniform: All Parts Are Equal