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The Interesting In Between: Why Complexity Exists

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  1. The Interesting In Between: Why Complexity Exists Scott E Page University of Michigan Santa Fe Institute scottepage@gmail.com

  2. Background Reading

  3. Outline Attributes Properties The Interesting In Between Why Complexity Conclusions

  4. Complex Adaptive Systems: Attributes

  5. Complex Adaptive Systems Networks Source: MIT

  6. Complex Adaptive Systems Networks Adaptation Source: Exploring Nature

  7. Complex Adaptive Systems Networks Adaptation Interactions Source: Uptodate.com

  8. Complex Adaptive Systems Networks Adaptation Interactions Diversity Source: Scientific American

  9. Complex Adaptive Systems: Properties

  10. Complex ≠ Complicated

  11. Complex ≠ Equilibrium (w/ Shocks)

  12. Complex ≠ Chaos Source: Andrew Russell

  13. Complex ≠ Difficult Source: Biology-direct

  14. Complex = Dancing Landscapes Source: Chris Lucas

  15. Epi-Phenomena Emergence Structures and Levels Source: Boortz.com

  16. Diffusion Limited Aggregation Start with a seed on a plane. Create drunken walkers who start from a random location and walk in random directions until touching the seed, at which point the walkers become immobilized. Witten and Sander (1981)

  17. Diffusion Limited Aggregation seed walker

  18. Diffusion Limited Aggregation

  19. Conway’s Game of Life Cell has eight neighbors Cell can be alive Cell can be dead Dead cell with 3 neighbors comes to life Live cell with 2,3 stays alive 2 3 1 4 X 5 8 6 7

  20. Examples X

  21. Bigger Space

  22. A New Kind of Science - Wolfram Binary state objects arranged in a line using simple rules can create - “perfect’’ randomness - chaos - patterns - computation

  23. Epi-Phenomena Emergence Structures and Levels Emergent Functionalities Source: Biology-direct

  24. Wolfram’s 256 Automata N X N X

  25. Rule 90 N X N X 2 8 16 64 Sum = 90

  26. Rule 90 N X N X 2 8 16 64 Sum = 90

  27. Four Classes of Behavior

  28. Emergent Computation Source: U of Indiana

  29. Epi-Phenomena Emergence Structures and Levels Emergent Functionalities Innovation http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/54/4054-004-F5EB3891.jpg

  30. Epi-Phenomena Emergence Structures and Levels Emergent Functionalities Innovation Large Events

  31. A Long Tailed Distribution

  32. A Long Tailed Distribution cities size words citations web hits book sales phone calls earthquakes moon craters wars net worth family names

  33. Large Events Source: www2002

  34. Per Bak’s Sandpile sand table floor

  35. Per Bak’s Sandpile sand table floor

  36. Self Organized Criticality Systems may self organize into critical states. If so “events” may not be normally distributed. They may instead have long tails. Small events could have enormous consequences.

  37. Epi-Phenomena Emergence Structures and Levels Emergent Functionalities Innovation Large Events Robustness Source: NBC

  38. “Imagine how difficult physics would be in electrons could think.” -Murray Gell-Mann

  39. Robustness: The World of Thinking (or adapting) Electrons

  40. The Langton Graph

  41. The Langton Graph

  42. A Thought Play A Simple Model of Forest Fires & Bank Failures

  43. The Bank Model Banks choose to make a risky loan each period with probability p

  44. The Bank Model Banks choose to make a risky loan each period with probability p Risky loans fail with probability q but have a higher yield

  45. The Bank Model Banks choose to make a risky loan each period with probability p Risky loans fail with probability q but have a higher yield Failures spread to neighboring banks only if those banks have a risky loan outstanding

  46. The Forest Fire Model Trees choose to make a grow each period with probability p Trees get hit by lightening with probability q Fire spreads to neighboring locations only if those locations have a tree

  47. Example Period 1: 00R00R000RR0R Period 2: R0R00R00RRRRR

  48. Example Period 1: 00R00R000RR0R Period 2: R0R00R00RRRRR Period 3: R0R00R00FRRRR Period 4: R0R00R00FFFFFF Period 5: R0R00R00000000

  49. Key Insight Revisited Bank managers should be smarter than trees!

  50. Forest Fire Model Results Yield increases in p up to a point and then falls off rather dramatically Physicists call this a ``phase transition’’