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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. 2009/2010: Rainfall deviation from normal (%) (Key: 100% = normal). 1991/92: Rainfall deviation from normal (%) (Key: 100% = normal). Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT). Wet. Dry. Dry. El Nino.

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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

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  1. Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

  2. 2009/2010: Rainfall deviation from normal (%) (Key: 100% = normal)

  3. 1991/92: Rainfall deviation from normal (%) (Key: 100% = normal)

  4. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  5. Outlook 2009/10 (1 October 2009 AMT) Wet Dry Dry El Nino Wet La Nina

  6. Maunder minimum Little ice age

  7. Maunder minimum Little ice age

  8. Maunder minimum Little ice age

  9. Sunspots and sunspot cycle Droughts

  10. Earth Sun Magnetic fields

  11. Geomagnetic activity from the sun

  12. Other contributing factors to global and South African weather

  13. Tropical cyclones as part of climate change and climate variability • Cyclones develop over water with high energy (warm) • If water of oceans are warmer then higher frequency of cyclones

  14. Tropical cyclone L H H

  15. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  16. The role of ENSO* on global climate *ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation

  17. H L

  18. Nino 3.4

  19. ENSO* and the RSA maize crop * El Nino Southern Oscillation

  20. RSA maize yield deviation from normalized average (%)

  21. RSA maize yield deviation from normalized average (%) Neutral La Nina El Nino

  22. RSA maize yield deviation from normalized average (%) El Nino La Nina Neutral

  23. RSA maize yield deviation from normalized average (%) El Nino

  24. RSA maize yield deviation from normalized average (%) La Nina

  25. RSA maize yield deviation from normalized average (%) Neutral

  26. Outlook for 2010/11

  27. ?

  28. RSA: Annual rainfall total deviation from long term average (mm) 73/74 95/96 70/71

  29. Summary • El Nino of 2009/10 – “abnormal” wet • La Nina development for 2010/11 – wet conditions for Summer Rainfall Area and dry for Western Cape • Maize crop – favourable production conditions

  30. Thanks

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