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Winter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook

Winter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook. Melissa L. Griffin Florida State Assistant Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University. What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring….

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Winter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook

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  1. Winter 2010-2011 Climate Outlook Melissa L. Griffin Florida State Assistant Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University

  2. What Will El Niño/La Niña Bring… The El Niño /La Niño cycle is the predominant mode of year to year climate variability in the Southeast. “The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey

  3. Basic State of the Pacific Ocean

  4. Atmospheric Circulation

  5. Winter Jet Stream Patterns El Niño La Niña

  6. Monitoring the Pacific Ocean

  7. Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle • Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean • Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

  8. Last Winter - El Niño was here!

  9. Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle • Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean • Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise

  10. Current Conditions - La Niña is here!

  11. How Confident in La Nina?

  12. Drought Impacts

  13. Drought Impacts

  14. El Niño Effects on Precipitation

  15. La Niña on Precipitation

  16. Local Impacts of El Niño /La Niña El Niño Hillsborough County – Plant City La Niña

  17. Probabilistic Nature of Forecasts March - El Niño Hillsborough County (Plant City) Normal March Rainfall: 3.39” March - La Niña

  18. La Niña Effects on Temperature

  19. Chill Hours La Niña El Niño

  20. Chill Accumulation

  21. Chill Accumulation

  22. Climate and Florida CitrusAdapted from: John Attaway, “A History of Florida Citrus Freezes” • Impact Freezes: • February 7-9, 1835 • December 29, 1894 • February 8, 1895 • February 13-14, 1899 • December 12-13, 1934 • January 27-19, 1940 • December 12-13, 1962 • January 18-20, 1977 • January 12-14, 1981 • December 24-25, 1983 • January 20-22, 1985 • December 24-25, 1989 • January 19, 1997 Freeze damaged orange trees in 1895

  23. La Nina and Freeze Probabilities Probability of 25 degrees ˚F or less La Nina Neutral

  24. Why is El Nino important?

  25. Where Can I Get More Information?

  26. For More Information www.agroclimate.org www.coaps.fsu.edu

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