Energy Development in Asia and China

1. 0 Energy Development in Asia and China Wu Zongxin 3E Research Institute, Tsinghua Univ. CTI Industry Joint Seminar on technology Diffusion of Energy Efficiency in Asian Countries Feb.24, 2005

2. 1 Summary Energy development in Asia and China Rapid increase of China�s energy consumption in recent years China�s energy demand and challenge faced in future

3. 2 I. Energy development in Asia and China Rapid increase of Energy consumption in Asia and China in 1990s Sustained increase of Energy consumption expected during the initial period of this century

4. 3 Energy consumption in Asia and its proportion in the world World (2001) 10029 Mtoe

5. 4 Energy consumption in Asia and its proportion in the world Asia (2001) 3203Mtoe

6. 5 Average annual growth rate of energy consumption and elasticity of some Asian countries during 1990--2001 Annual growth rate(%) Elasticity China 3.0 0.30 (China(01-02/02-03) 8.3/9.3 1.40/1.77) Japan 1.6 1.31 India 5.2 0.96 Korea 7.0 1.20 Indonesia 6.5 1.56 Thailand 7.4 1.74 Malaysia 8.4 1.31 Philippines 5.3 1.82

7. 6 Increase of Energy consumption and economy growth during 1990--2001

8. 7 Energy demand forecast up to 2020 Note:1. Excluding Japan and Korea. 2. Excluding China. 3. Including non-OECD European countries. Source: Calculated based on data from IEA, IEE (Japan), 3ERI (China), etc.

9. 8 Energy demand forecast up to 2020

10. 9 II?Rapid increase of China�s energy consumption in recent years Rapid increase of total energy consumption Rapid increase of oil consumption and import Rapid increase of electricity and periodically short of electricity supply

11. 10 Primary energy consumption(1990-2001:3.0%/a) 2001-2002: 9.9% 2002-2003: 13.2% Oil consumption (1990-2001:6.4%/a) 2001-2002: 7.2% 2002-2003: 15.7% Electricity consumpption(1990-2001: 8.1%/a ) 2001-2002:11.6% 2002-2003: 14.3%

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13. 12 GDP Growth (1990-2001: 9.9%/a) 2001-2002 8.9% 2002-2003 9.1% Energy elasticity (1990-2001: 0.30 ) 2001-2002 1.11 2002-2003 1.47 Power elasticity (1990-2001: 0.82 ) 1995-2002 1.30 2002-2003 1.57

14. 13 Excessive development in short term of energy intensive industries, especially heavy industry and chemical industry Rapid increase of electricity demand with economy development and living standard improvement Rapid increase of dwellings and cars Fast progress of urbanization

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16. 15 Short of power supply in about 80% provinces About 35 GW of power short supply

17. 16 III?China�s energy demand and challenge faced in future

18. 17 Energy demand in 2020 2500-3300 Mtce of energy demand and 860-960Gw of power capacity for different scenarios in 2020 Per capita energy consumption in 2020 will reach about 2 tce compared with 1 tce in 2000 ????, ????????,????????,??????????????,?????????,???????????,????????????????,???????????????????????????????,???????????????????????????,???????????GDP??????,?????????????, ????????,????????,??????????????,?????????,???????????,????????????????,???????????????????????????????,???????????????????????????,???????????GDP??????,?????????

19. 18 Primary energy mix in 2020 Coal: 2100 -2900 t Oil: 400-450 t Natural gas: 160-200 Gm3 Hydropower and nuclear power: Hydro power : ~240 GW Nuclear power: ~36 GW New and renewable energy : 8-10%

20. 19 Challenge faced in future for China�s energy  (??3.6????,???4.3????),??????????4.7?,?????????1262???,????????140? ??????20.1%, 5.1%,86.2% ????????1.8-2.0??,????800 ????(??3.6????,???4.3????),??????????4.7?,?????????1262???,????????140? ??????20.1%, 5.1%,86.2% ????????1.8-2.0??,????800 ????

21. 20 Due to proportion of industry over 40% in GDP,and most products lower add value and lower efficiency, China�s GDP energy intensity was 829 toe/106USD,about 3.2 times of world average level and 4.3 times of OECD level Unit energy consumption for most energy intensive products was over 20%-50% than that of developed countries ??????GDP??????????????????????? ??????GDP???????????????????????

22. 21 If wouldn�t control, by 2020 SO2 and NOx emission would reach 40 Mt and 35 Mt respectively (limits are 16 Mt and 19 Mt respectively) CO2 emission in China ranks second in the world, and will increase in future

23. 22 Principles of energy development up to 2020 Priority to energy conservation Safety in energy supply Optimization of energy mix Environment friendly

24. 23 GDP redouble with energy double up to 2020 Adjusting industrial structure,optimizing product variety,and improving energy efficiency, build energy conservation society Based on efficient and environment friendly technology, and basic guarantee of coal supply, guarantee energy supply safety Promoting the development and application of alternative fuel technologies with comprehensive measures, guarantee the safety of oil and gas supply

25. 24 Industrial sectors:adopt advanced energy saving technologies,technological process and equipment Transportation:extend new oil-saving technologies,develop new efficient motor vehicles,implement vehicle�s oil-consumption limits,etc. Constriction:develop and extend the application of new building materials and design  ?????????,?????????????????????? ?????????,??????????????????????

26. 25 Thank you!