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Watershed Model Update for Guadalupe: Sediment, Hg, and PCBs Transport to San Francisco Bay

This presentation covers the update on the Guadalupe Watershed Model for Year 2, focusing on sediment, mercury (Hg), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) transport. The objective is to analyze source, release, and transport of pollutants to the San Francisco Bay. The timeline includes Hydrologic model in Year 1 and Sediment and contaminants model in Year 2. The model aims to improve accuracy in calculating mercury and PCB loads to address impairments, loads, trends, and support management actions. It includes a model overview, calibration/validation, improvement plan, revised calibration sites, urban irrigation addition, and model segmentations. The presentation emphasizes the need to calibrate the sediment portion of the model and extend it to analyze Hg and PCBs. A draft report is expected by the next meeting in November.

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Watershed Model Update for Guadalupe: Sediment, Hg, and PCBs Transport to San Francisco Bay

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  1. Item #7 Guadalupe Watershed ModelYear 2 update Presentation to SPLWG May 27, 2009 Michelle Lent, John Oram, Lester McKee

  2. Item #7 • Basic Objective (revised): • To understand the source, release, and transport of suspended sediment, Hg and PCBs from a large, mixed land use watershed to San Francisco Bay • Timeline: • Year 1 (2008): Hydrologic model • Year 2 (2009): Sediment and contaminants model • Details: • Establish model input and calibration parameters to assist in developing other local watershed models • Improve accuracy of mercury and PCB load calculations • Addresses • STLS Q1 (Impairment), Q2 (loads), Q3 (Trends), Q4 (Support for management actions) • Modeling Strategy Q3 (Small tributary loads)

  3. Item #7 Re-cap of last time • Model Overview & Set-up • Software & data sets used • Delineation & segmentation • Model Calibration/Validation • Split data into two sets (2000-05, 2006-07) • Summary of Model Performance • Captures general watershed hydrology & storm events • Needs improvement for • Annual flow volume and base flow • Storm event peak flow and timing • Model Improvement Plan • Extend calibration period • Add urban irrigation • Revise imperviousness estimates • Re-evaluate meteorological and calibration segmentation • Suggestion from Workgroup • Shift to spatial calibration/validation split • -Calibrate upstream, validate downstream

  4. Item #7 Revised calibration&validation sites: Lower Guadalupe River Los Gatos Creek Canoas Creek Ross Creek Upper Guadalupe River Guadalupe Creek

  5. Item #7 Extended simulation period

  6. Item #7 Added urban irrigation

  7. E.I.A. = 0.15*(T.I.A.)1.14 (Alley and Veenhuis, 1983) Item #7 Revised imperviousness estimates

  8. Item #7 Adjusted meteorological segmentation

  9. Item #7 Re-evaluated calibration parameters & model parameterization 7 model segments 12 model segments

  10. Item #7 Example result of model revisionsRoss Creek flow with Vasona & Alamitos precipitation

  11. Item #7 Compare model versions - Annual flow volumes for Guadalupe River Old version (v1) New version (v2)

  12. Item #7 Compare model versions -Observed versus simulated daily flow for Guadalupe River Old version (v1): WY2003-2007 New version (v2): WY1995-2007

  13. Item #7 Compare model versions - Hourly flow for Guadalupe River

  14. Item #7 Sediment model development: Data needs for parameterization & calibration • Target sediment loading rates Sediment production rates estimated for land use classes (tonnes/km2/yr) Apply sediment delivery ratio “edge of stream” inputs D.R. = 0.418*Area-0.135 - 0.127 • Particle Size Distribution Soil Texture map Soil Texture % clay/silt/sand Fractionation ratio Particle size distribution map

  15. Item #7 Next time, calibrated SSC…

  16. Item #7 Next Steps • Calibrate sediment portion of model • Extend model to Hg and PCBs • Calibrate contaminant portion of model Deliverable Draft report by November SPLWG meeting

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