Regional Workshop for African Countries on the Comp ilation of Basic Economic St atistics

1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Statistics Division (UNSD) Regional Workshop for African Countries on the Compilation of Basic Economic Statistics Strengthening national statistical infrastructure. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 16 – 19 October 2007 Len Cook, UNSD Consultant

3. Vision -Forum on Africa Statistical Development   “Our vision………….. • as core producers of statistics in Africa • is the installation of a statistical infrastructure, • through enhanced partner-ship among stakeholders at all levels, • capable of providing and promoting the effective management and utilization of quality data, and • information for evidence-based policy and decision-making, • monitoring development programmes and • democratic accountability.” Statistical Development in Africa: A Strategic framework

4. Infrastructure – A sound balance • The national statistical infrastructure contains of a mix of institutions, institutional relationships, systems, processes practices and methods. • Having a balanced approach to infrastructure development may be more important for the long run success of the statistical system than significant achievement at any single one element. • the way the whole range of infrastructure fits together and meets country needs will be unique to the country

5. Local context of statistical infrastructure Place statistical infrastructure of any country in the wider context of the infrastructure that exists for all business and the other activities of government. - Tangible, (transport and communications systems) - Less tangible (common tax numbers, tracking goods, services or people as they enter the country. )

6. Core capabilities of National Statistics Fundamental Pillars of Official Statistics PERFORMANCE I N T E G R A T I O N RELEVANCE T R U S T EXPERT NSI FOCUSED CAPABILITIES STATISTICAL SYSTEM FOCUSED CAPABILITIES GLOBAL NETWORKS Statistical Legislation Statistical Standards Statistical Frameworks Training Knowledge of methodologies International co-operation Statistical Organisation Privacy Legislation Code of Practice Advisory Bodies National Information Policy Regional Collaboration Information Technology Market Infrastructures Accreditation of quality UN Principles of Official Statistics UNSNA Beijing (Women) Rio (Environment) IMF SDDS

7. Implications for transfer of systems and processes Translating survey design methods adopted by well endowed countries into countries that are less well endowed with business or government infrastructure may bring about suboptimal solutions which are less effective than those which take account of what infrastructure works best in the local or regional context.

8. User driven focus on infrastructure • The national statistician is an investor, while existing and future users are consumers • Leadership in national statistical policy within the country must focus on enabling decisions based on sound statistical measures to be made in a timely and decisive manner. • Strong user relationships and interaction are essential to give the national leadership a clear focus on strategies that meet local needs, alongside Millennium Development Goals, the national accounts and other international needs. • Anticipate emerging needs e.g. expectations of integration between social and economic statistics • Manage obsolescence of systems, methods and processes

12. Infrastructure depends on Governance(Organisational and constitutional) • Statistics legislation, in the context of other laws (privacy, freedom of information, administrative) • Procedure, custom and practice, in applying law • Organisational arrangements and roles • Organisation of the national statistical office • Ministerial arrangements and status, and delineation of roles • Place within the organisation of government of the statistical office and the national statistician • Other decision-making authorities

13. Elements of Governance(practice) • Capacity for independent action • Quality of leadership • Professionalism of statistical staff • National statistical standards and frameworks • Budget allocation and management • Forms of compliance and accountability • Public sector management environment • Role of management boards, statistical councils

14. Elements of Governance(practice) • Users are not investors, and it is the national statistician who invests in methodology, systems, publishing services, survey capability, skills and identity needed to produce official statistics • Quality of leadership • Professionalism of statistical staff • National statistical standards and frameworks • Budget allocation and management • Forms of compliance and accountability • Public sector management environment • Role of management boards, statistical councils

15. Governance Now(institutional preferences) • Networked organisation form • Re-enforce standards with common tools and cross-office architecture • Ongoing common training and development process • High quality, responsive central services • Statistical system responses to emerging issues • Loose oversight of influential activity that integrates with official statistics

16. Local partnerships may speed change and increase opportunities • Partners in collaboration in systems and methods that challenge the transfer of practices from unrelated countries will come from country organisations that have similar interests in information exchange and transfer, although their field of interest may be very different. • Because the payback period for statistical investments is comparatively long compared to many other fields of activity, technological innovation of local relevance in other agencies may have an even greater impact on the collection, analysis and release of statistics.

17. Fit development path to long run budget • Some elements of infrastructure will be determined by the economic position of the country. • For example, there is now a rich array of freeware for information technology, which embraces the uses that statistical systems have for information technology. • This means that technology resources can be directed at applications rather than software purchase and fees. • Donor activity can be required to adopt the NSI standard tools

18. Development path for NSI Planning Anticipate change in direction of statistical sources and statistical measures High Continuity of Government Funding to NSI low Capacity to change the scope and quality of statistics Capacity to extend statistical activities and maintain regular activity Capacity to repeat annual and monthly operations Low ---- User commitment ---- high

19. Contribution of investments to performance Presentation and extraction tools Competitiveness, Innovation, Responsiveness Methods and survey tools Best practice, Reliability Sources Information Management Cycle times, Cost structure, Integration Meta data Coherence, Knowledge base, Geographic base

20. Managing obsolescence in statistical process Development project scale 18 months 15 months One year 9 months 6 months 3 months Sources Information Management Meta data Methods and survey tools Presentation and extraction tools Investment Life-span Cycle times Cost structure Integration Coherence Knowledge base Geographic base Competitiveness Innovation Responsiveness Best practice Reliability

21. Integrating elements COMMONQUALITYMEASURESFOR SURVEYEVENTS COMMON ORGANISATIONOF DATAARRAYS INTEGRATION THROUGH COMMON METHODOLOGY ANDPRACTICE REAL-TIME PROCESSES OFSTATISTICAL FRAMEWORKS & SYSTEMS MATCHING BY COMMON STATISTICAL SURVEY FRAMES, AND IDENTIFIERS REAL TIME SURVEY PROCESS INFORMATION REPLACEABLE COMMON TOOLS, AND SYSTEMS COMMON DATA MANAGEMENT (ORACLE) USERS DETERMINE WHOLE SYSTEM CROSS CUTTING VARIABLES META DATA

22. Survey design and statistical infrastructure reflect the local context • Simple survey designs and estimation methods bring added flexibility but may require larger sample sizes • Household surveys have an increasing place in economic statistics, initially through extending the scope of well established sources • When available, tax records can be used not only to manage the survey frame through a business register, but to provide responses for small firms. • Area samples, sampling transactions, combining information may be more efficient with current tools, where registers are poor

23. Collaboration among African countries may enable more rapid development of the most relevant methodologies, (maintain a core of local expertise). Graphical methods of validation can enable outliers to be managed with greater certainty than traditional methods that necessitate ongoing oversight by changing personal. Bring together the validation and linking of the business activity of large enterprises at a micro level, to improve the quality of balance of payments, finance and banking, pensions statistics.

27. Focusing on an Integrated, enterprise wide technology architecture • Common tool box • Systems and methods interaction (External trade) • Web driven • International collaboration • Technology is a boardroom issue • Start simply • Change psychology of organisation

28. Essential challenges: Clear authority for the place of the statistical system • Have final authority for integrity with statisticians • Fund mix of current activity and investments • Make quality visible

29. Organisational infrastructure

32. Decision-making in economic statistics Global accumulation of knowledge of decisions and s/understanding needed in societies National accumulation of knowledge Statistical Frameworks national/international Statistical processes Statistical practice Statistical methods Surveying Statistical measures Country decisions/ understanding

33. Investment level and Performance System Performance System focused contribution Institution focused contribution Investment Level Pacific Africa Balkans East Europe France United Kingdom Italy Australia Canada Norway

34. Costs of inadequate investment in statistical leadership • Development risks are seen as procurement risks instead of statistical ones • Ignore dynamics of statistical processes and over-emphasis on one-off static performance • Synchronous activity and balances across the whole system not reflected in design goals • Absence of a compelling agenda for donor countries to participate and contribute • Low focus on learning and development activities that expand capacity from joint development and top level interaction • Infrastructure is not a stable platform for necessary dynamic of responses to emerging needs • The piecemeal evolution of statistical processes means that the investment resources have a reduced impact on the long term performance of the statistical system

35. The management focus on change No risk access Simplify survey base Link with oversight body Contact management Explain uses to respondents trust and goodwill of respondents Survey capability Manage Statistical Processes Standard frames Single geographic reference System wide meta data Standard survey design Information management Delivery Analysis Reporting on trends Demography capability Standard products Market priorities Small areas User management Understand Value added Delivery standards Delivery monitoring Audit reviews National Statistics reviews Risk management Value analysis Strategic reviews Competitive advantage of whole statistical system

37. Results of Improved Methodology • and Technology • Description • Access to new administrative data-sets • Apply classifications in more detail, at low cost • Rapid digitising of information • New monitoring of business transactions (SWIFT) • Strategic view of frame management

38. Results of Improved Methodology and Technology • Extraction • Transfer information fast • Flexible access to existing data-sets • Graphical validation processes • Total quality management processes • Apply complex sampling models • Recognise outliers • Apply common tools

39. Results of Improved Methodology and Technology • Integration • Increased capacity to adopt common identifiers • Apply statistical frames to all data-sets • Match data-sets with common identifiers • Extend analysis from existing panel data-sets • Apply statistical matching • Apply statistical unit classifications to event data • Use power of data management tools

40. Results of Improved Methodology and Technology • Estimation • Apply user specified models to data-sets • Estimate sub-population characteristics • Provide micro-data based measures (concentration, distribution, transitions) • Greater validation of estimates

41. Results of Improved Methodology and Technology • Selection • Expand variety of relevant comparisons • Increase small population measures • Provide micro-macro data integration • Regionally specific regional data selection • Data defined regions