sub module ii the agrarian questions facing africa n.
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SUB-MODULE II: THE AGRARIAN QUESTIONS FACING AFRICA. Professor Sam Moyo. 1.0 Neoliberal Agricultural Policy Framework 1.1 Agricultural output marketing policies vs protection/subsidies 1.1.1 Agricultural commodity markets de-regulation.

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1.0 Neoliberal Agricultural Policy Framework1.1 Agricultural output marketing policies vsprotection/subsidies1.1.1 Agricultural commodity markets de-regulation

  • Marketing boards (minimalism)- monopolies; storage/distribution services
  • Price (de)regulation-stabilisation; pan-territorial;
1 2 agricultural trade liberalisation
1.2 Agricultural trade liberalisation
  • Quantitative restrictions removed
  • Tarrifs reduced
1 3 agricultural production support policies
1.3 Agricultural production support policies
  • Direct and indirect production subsidies reduced (inputs; exchange rate and forex allocations)
  • Research and Extension services privatised or cut
1 4 agricultural development finance
1.4 Agricultural development finance
  • Credit/ Agricultural banks (interest rates; targeted supply)
  • Water and irrigation development
  • ?
1 5 land tenure reform policies
1.5 Land tenure reform policies
  • Land tenure individualisation and markets
  • Decentralised land administration
  • Special investor land grants and leases
1 6 social welfare policies vs demand compression
1.6 Social welfare policies vs demand compression
  • Loss of social transfers (free education, etc)
  • Rural development infrastructures
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2.0 Performance of African Agriculture2.1 ??2.2 Productivity Question: Agricultural Production Trends2.2.1 Agriculture in aggregate production (crops, livestock, food, other)

Fig. 2.1 Agriculture in aggregate production: Gross per capita index (2004-06= 100)

Source: FAO (2013)

2 2 2 net agricultural production per capita index
2.2.2 Net agricultural production per capita index

Fig 2.2.2 Net Agricultural production per capita Index (2004-2006 = 100):1970-2011

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 2 3 cereal production trends 2 2 3 a cereal output trends
2.2.3 Cereal production trends2.2.3 (a) Cereal output trends

Fig 2.2.3(a) Cereal production (tonnes) in Africa (1970-2011)

Source: FAOSTAT (2010; 2013)

2 2 3 b cereal cropped area
2.2.3 (b) Cereal cropped area

Fig 2.2.3 (b) Cereal cropped area (ha) in Africa (1970-2011)

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 2 3 c cereal yields tons ha
2.2.3(c) Cereal yields (tons/ha)

Fig. 2.2.3(c) Cereal yields (kg/ha) in Africa (1970-2011)

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 2 3 d cereal crop yields 2 2 3 e african crop yields
2.2.3 (d) Cereal crop yields2.2.3 (e) African crop yields

Fig 2.2.3 (e) African crop yields (kg/ha), 1961-2011

Source: Dietz (2011); *FAO (2013); **FAOSTAT (2013)

2 2 4 livestock production 2 2 4 a livestock production million tonnes 1970s 1980s
2.2.4 Livestock production2.2.4 (a) Livestock production (million tonnes) (1970s/1980s)

Fig 2.2.4 (a) Livestock production (million tonnes)

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

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Fig 2.3.1 Africa agricultural products, cereals and maize trade (‘000 US$)

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 3 2 volume of cereal trade imports exports
2.3.2 Volume of cereal trade (imports/exports)

Fig.2. 3.2: Volume of cereal trade in Africa

Source: FAO (2013)

2 3 4 cereal food aid shipments to africa
2.3.4 Cereal food aid shipments to Africa

Fig 2.3.4 Cereal food aid shipments to Africa

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 4 agricultural investments and sustainability
2.4 Agricultural Investments and Sustainability?

Fig.2.4.1 (a) Fertiliser consumption in nutrients (tonnes) in Africa

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 4 2 capital and investment in agriculture gross capital stock constant 2005 prices usd million
2.4.2 Capital and investment in agriculture: Gross Capital Stock (constant 2005 prices) (USD million)

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

2 4 2 b capital and investment in agriculture agricultural capital stock constant 2005 prices
2.4.2 (b) Capital and investment in agriculture: Agricultural capital stock (constant 2005 prices)

Fig 2.4.2 (b)Capital and investment in agriculture: Agricultural capital stock (constant 2005 prices)

Source: FAO (2013)

3 0 effects of agricultural liberalisation 3 1 slow growth and rising poverty
3.0Effects of Agricultural liberalisation 3.1 Slow growth and rising poverty
  • Economic liberalization since 1980s generally slowed growth, poverty reduction + increased inequality + vulnerability in most countries
  • Slower growth (except 2003-2008)
  • Policy prescriptions, often imposed, have reduced policy space
  • Less growth, revenue due to liberalization (tax competition) reduced fiscal means
  • Reduced policy + fiscal space adverse effects for poverty + destitution
3 2 declining terms of trade
3.2 Declining terms of trade
  • International terms of trade have moved against developing countries
  • 1. Primary commodities vs manufactures
  • 2. Tropical vs. temperate agriculture
  • 3. South vs North manufactured Xs
  • Generic manufactures vs monopolistic manufactures protected by IPRs?
  • -Immisering growth?
3 3 negative capital flows and high costs
3.3 Negative capital flows and high costs
  • Converse of advocates’ claims:
  • K flows not from K rich to K poor Except E Asia early + mid-1990s
  • Costs of funds not lower
  • Some old sources of volatility + instability reduced, but new sources introduced
3 4 not enough food and price vulnerability
3.4 Not enough food and Price vulnerability
  • Poverty line mainly defined as money income to avoid hunger, but huge discrepancies between poverty + hunger measures
  • FAO: 963m. hungry world-wide – up by 142m. since 1990-92
  • Higher food prices: more hungry
  • MDG1? Poverty down, hunger up since 1990!!! (Not lack of food)
  • Before price spike, 1.4bn chronically hungry, 2+bn more undernourished ; 18,000 kids die daily for poor nutrition
  • More food price volatility, levels
  • 2007-8 food prices spiked, then declined
  • Food prices rose again in 2010 until mid-2011à more hunger à more poverty
3 4 b drivers of food crisis fundamentals vs financialisation
3.4(b) Drivers of food crisis: fundamentals vs financialisation
  • Fundamentals include agribusiness concentration, subsidies, e.g. bio-fuels
  • Futures, options financial asset class
  • Most investment strategies pro-cyclical
4 0 some case studies mexico maize
4.0 Some Case Studies: Mexico Maize
  • The Mexico experience with maize by Alejandro