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Dare to Compare How does NC Stack Up?

Dare to Compare How does NC Stack Up?. Presentation to the NC Technology Association Regional Technology Strategies Carrboro, NC June 17, 2011. Topics. The North Carolina Economy yesterday & today The Rankings Systems North Carolina by Category

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Dare to Compare How does NC Stack Up?

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  1. Dare to CompareHow does NC Stack Up? Presentation to the NC Technology Association Regional Technology Strategies Carrboro, NC June 17, 2011

  2. Topics • The North Carolina Economy yesterday & today • The Rankings Systems • North Carolina by Category • Case Studies in State Technology Development Policy • A Policy Comment Tangent

  3. The North Carolina Economy in 1970 • The Big 3 • Textiles • Tobacco • Furniture • The Big Three accounted for: • 2/3rds of Manufacturing Employment • 1/4qtr of Total Employment • And they lost by 2007 • Textiles 2/3rds of Manufacturing Employment • Furniture 2/3rds of Manufacturing Employment • Tobacco 60% of Manufacturing Employment

  4. The North Carolina Economy in 2007 • The New Big 5 represent 17% of NC GSP • Technology • Pharmaceuticals • Financial Services • Food Processing • Automotive Vehicle Parts • NC in the Connected Age (Walden, 2008) • Fastest growing occupation 1970-2005 – Professional & Scientific Workers • Per capita income in NC grew faster than US as a whole • Percent of population with college degrees approached national average

  5. But People Keep Showing Up!

  6. North Carolina Economy: Where next? • Walden suggests • Tourism, retiree migration • Port development • Air travel and Jack Kasarda’sAerotroplis • Others • Aerospace with Spirit, Boeing and others • Military related industry • Green industries (the biotech of the 2010s) • What will our panelists say?

  7. Comparing States: Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF) • The 2010 State New Economy Index • Knowledge Jobs • Globalization • Economic Dynamism • The Digital Economy • Innovation Capacity NorthCarolina2010 = 24

  8. Comparing States: Milken Institute • State Technology & Science Index 2010 • Human Capital Investment • R&D Inputs • Risk Capital and Entrepreneurial Infrastructure • Technology and Science Work Force • Technology Concentration and Dynamism NorthCarolina2010 = 13

  9. Comparing States: National Science Board • Science & Engineering Indicators 2010 • Elementary/Secondary & Higher Education • Workforce • Financial R&D Inputs • R&D Outputs • Science & Technology in the Economy

  10. Comparing States: Conexus Indiana • 2011 Manufacturing & Logistics Report • Manufacturing Health • Logistics Health • Diversification • Global Reach • Venture Capital PC • Productivity & Innovation • Tax Climate • Benefit Costs • Human Capital NorthCarolina2010 = B

  11. Milken Institute Rankings North Carolina by Category

  12. ITIF Rankings North Carolina by Category

  13. Positive Rankings (NC State Rank)

  14. Negative Rankings (NC State Rank)

  15. What Does This Tell Us? • As the John Prine songs says “Pretty good, not bad, can’t complain” • Can you compare the rankings? • What do they think is important? • Do they place the actual measures into the same categories? • Are they measuring inputs or outputs? • What are the politics involved? • What do we do with it • What do you have control over? • Are differences significant?

  16. Case Studies • Colorado – ranks highly (3rd Milken, 9th ITIF, “A” Conexus Indiana) • Kansas – ranks middle (23rd Milken, 26th ITIF, “C” Conexus Indiana) • Kentucky – ranks low (47th Milken, 39th ITIF, “D” Conexus Indiana)

  17. Let’s Take a Little Tangent

  18. Innovation and Business Size • In the 1960s John Kenneth Galbraith declared that the large industrial firm had won the economic battle and proposed the new industrial state economic policy. • In the late 1980s David Birch’s much cited but methodologically flawed analysis claimed that nearly all net new job growth was due to small businesses. Now big business was dead and the entrepreneurial state was proposed.

  19. The Numbers Battle • Politicians proclaim that “90% (or 80% or 92%) of net new jobs are created by small entrepreneurial firms.” Birch originally said 80-85%. • The Bureau of Labor Statistics completed the first rigorous analysis of size and net new job growth and they found…

  20. Net Job Growth 1993-2003 • Small firms (1-99 employees) created 47% • Mid-size firms (100-499) created 17% • Large firms (500+) created 36% • Recent research tends to say that the age of the firm is the most important characteristic in explaining net job growth

  21. But What is Really Important? • “The different roles taken on by small and large firms together create more technological progress, innovation and growth than either category could have achieved by itself.” William Baumol, Princeton University Small and large firms have a symbiotic relationship

  22. Regional Technology Strategies, Inc. Chris Beacham - cbeacham@rtsinc.org http://www.rtsinc.org

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