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Emerging Trends in Snow Avalanche Modeling

This study discusses the problem of avalanches, principles of modeling, and various techniques used in snow avalanche modeling. It explores static terrain-based derivatives, dynamic snow-met derivatives, and integrates data to assess overall avalanche danger and risk along avalanche paths.

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Emerging Trends in Snow Avalanche Modeling

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  1. Emerging trends inSnow avalanche modelingD Rajesh ReddyDigital Mapping & Modeling Division,ADRIN

  2. Outline • Avalanche: Problem • Principles of Modeling • Techniques • Avalanche : Modeling • Static Terrain based Derivatives • Dynamic Snow-met Derivatives • Current study • Conclusion D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 2 4 January 2020

  3. Avalanche :Problem • Principles of Modeling • Techniques: • Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) - Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Data Integration - Compromise Programming (CP)/ Ideal Point Analysis (IPA) 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 3

  4. Objective Criteria Elements 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 4

  5. Expert Opinion - Pair-wise Comparison Matrix 1. Slope contributes to Avalanche more 2. Curvature contributes to Avalanche more 1 3 5 7 9 Equal Moderate Strong Demonstrated Absolute D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  6. Data Integration Linear Weighted Sum Ideal Point Analysis (CP) Ideal Category • n • D = [ Σ4j(X* – Cij) 4] 1/4 • J= 1 • X* - Ideal Pattern Vector D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  7. Avalanche Modeling Avalanche Formation Zone Hazard Polygon Delineation, Hazard Level at Formation Zone Integration of Snow-Met Data Overall Avalanche Danger Assessment Avalanche Path Delineation (Polygon / Cell – based Path) Risk Along Path Risk to Road S T A T I C D Y N A M I C D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  8. Current StudyCT AXIS D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  9. Derivation and integration of Terrain Parameters Aspect DEM Slope Altitude 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 9

  10. Derivation and integration of Terrain Parameters Cont’d Curvature Ruggedness CTCI=(Tr + Ts + Tc + Trug)/4 where, Range within the window(Hmax-Hmin)-Tr Variance in heights (Std from the window Mean)-Ts Curvature (second derivative of surface height)-Tc Rugocity(ratio of the surface area to the projected area)-Trug 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 10

  11. Vegetation Density Derivation and integration of Terrain Parameters Cont’d Land Cover 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 11

  12. Generation of Avalanche Formation Zone FIRST BEST SECOND BEST THIRD BEST FOURTH BEST FIFTH BEST SIXTH BEST 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 12

  13. CT8 BASIN-3D View D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  14. Basin-wise Hazard polygon delineation Hazard Avalanche Polys Paths CT8 Micro Basins 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 14

  15. Hazard Level at Formation Zone Hazard Level at Formation Zone 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 15

  16. Dynamic Parameters 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 16

  17. Integration of Snow-met data 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 17

  18. Overall danger Level at formation Zone • Avalanche Danger Assessment with Snow-Met data (Dynamic) • Hazard Level at Formation Zone (Static) 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 18

  19. Risk along Avalanche Path 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 19

  20. Risk To Road Risk To Road 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 20

  21. 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 21

  22. Conclusion • Usefulness of SAMS • a) Warning tool • Wooden Bridges • Structures which can slow-down the flow of avalanche • Vacating the population (if any), from the would be affected places etc., • b) Suggestive tool • Build an infrastructure • Build Transportation facilities D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  23. Queries D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC

  24. THANK YOU 4 January 2020 D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC D RAJESH REDDY SCI/ENGR-SC 24

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