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The State of the Church in Idaho 1990-2000. Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org.

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the state of the church in idaho 1990 2000
The State of the Churchin Idaho1990-2000

Dave Olson

www.TheAmericanChurch.org

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide2

This is a Sample PresentationIt’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Idaho, and what the complete “State of the Church in Idaho” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Idaho that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UID20.htm

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide3
In 1996,

polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group.

For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide4
The Intent

of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions:

“How Many People Really Attend Church in Idaho Every Week?”

“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Idaho?”

As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Idaho will begin to take shape.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide5
This study

uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Idaho has an attendance percentage (11.4%) that is much lower than the average for the nation (18.7%), one of the lowest in the nation.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide7
The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Idaho.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide8

15.8%

Boundary

9.5%

Bonner

11.3%

Kootenai

13.2%

Shoshone

14.9%

Benewah

10.4%

Latah

12.8%

Clearwater

16.6%

28.7%

Nez Perce

Lewis

20.2%

Idaho

Idaho Counties

2000 Percentage

of Population at

Worship in

All Christian

Churches on

a Given Sunday

Blue = Lowest

Rose = Middle

Beige = Highest

13.2%

11.7%

Lemhi

Adams

13.0%

Valley

17.3%

Washington

1.8%

2.9%

1.6%

Fremont

Clark

Custer

15.7%

12.9%

1.2%

Gem

Payette

1.2%

Boise

0.3%

1.7%

1.3%

Jefferson

Madison

Butte

Teton

12.7%

0.4%

Canyon

13.6%

8.5%

Camas

6.7%

Ada

Elmore

5.8%

4.4%

Bonneville

Blaine

Bingham

8.3%

11.5%

14.0%

Lincoln

Gooding

Minidoka

8.9%

6.0%

10.9%

5.7%

Power

Caribou

Jerome

6.3%

Bannock

16.4%

Owyhee

6.3%

Twin Falls

0.9%

0.9%

5.4%

Cassia

Bear Lake

Oneida

Franklin

0.0% to 6.0%

6.0% to 12.9%

12.9% to 29.7%

slide9
The Next 2 Maps

show the population numbers for each county in Idaho. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide10

9,871

Boundary

36,835

Bonner

108,685

Kootenai

13,771

Shoshone

9,171

Benewah

34,935

Latah

8,930

Clearwater

37,410

3,747

Nez Perce

Lewis

15,511

Idaho

Idaho Counties

2000 Population by

County

7,806

3,476

Lemhi

Adams

7,651

Valley

9,977

Washington

11,819

1,022

4,342

Fremont

15,181

Clark

Custer

Gem

20,578

6,670

Payette

19,155

Boise

27,467

2,899

5,999

Jefferson

Madison

Butte

Teton

131,441

991

Canyon

300,904

29,130

Camas

82,522

Ada

Elmore

18,991

41,735

Bonneville

Blaine

Bingham

4,044

14,155

20,174

10,644

Lincoln

Gooding

Minidoka

7,538

7,304

Owyhee

18,342

75,565

Power

Caribou

Jerome

Bannock

64,284

21,416

Twin Falls

6,411

4,125

11,329

Cassia

Bear Lake

Oneida

Franklin

0 to 8,930

8,930 to 20,578

20,578 to 300,905

slide12
The Next 2 Slides

show the ethnicity of Idaho in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide16
The Next Graph

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Idaho in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals have grown significantly in attendance, nearly keeping up with population growth. Catholics have also increased and the Mainline has stayed the same. Unfortunately, while overall worship attendance has increased, population has grown at a faster rate. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide19
The Next Graph

is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Idaho in 1990 and 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide22
The 2 Next Charts

show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Idaho. The Pie Chart shows the variety of denominational strength in Idaho. The second chart shows that all groups have declined with the exception of the Pentecostals.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide25
The Next Chart

shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide28
The Next 3 Maps

show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Idaho in 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

complete presentation has state map of 2000 evangelical attendance percentage for each county

Complete Presentation hasState Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

complete presentation has state map of 2000 mainline attendance percentage for each county

Complete Presentation hasState Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

slide31

2.1%

Boundary

2.2%

Bonner

2.5%

Kootenai

2.8%

Shoshone

5.7%

Benewah

3.4%

Latah

2.2%

Clearwater

4.6%

3.6%

Lewis

Nez Perce

10.5%

Idaho

Idaho Counties

2000 Percentage

of Population at

Worship in

Catholic

Churches on

any Given Sunday

Blue = Lowest

Rose = Middle

Beige = Highest

2.4%

1.8%

Lemhi

Adams

2.8%

Valley

4.7%

Washington

1.5%

0.4%

0.5%

Fremont

Clark

Custer

3.1%

2.9%

0.9%

Gem

Payette

0.2%

Boise

0.2%

0.5%

0.4%

Jefferson

Madison

Butte

Teton

2.3%

0.4%

Canyon

3.5%

2.2%

Camas

2.8%

Ada

3.3%

Elmore

2.3%

Bonneville

Blaine

Bingham

1.4%

2.4%

4.6%

Lincoln

Gooding

3.6%

Minidoka

2.6%

4.0%

1.8%

Caribou

Power

Jerome

0.0%

Bannock

4.4%

Owyhee

1.8%

Twin Falls

0.3%

0.1%

3.2%

Cassia

Bear Lake

Oneida

Franklin

0.0% to 1.8%

1.8% to 3.1%

3.1% to 11.5%

slide32
The Next Map

shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 12 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 32 counties declined.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide33

Complete Presentation hasState Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Declinefor each County

slide34
The Next 3 Maps

show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Idaho between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 17 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 21 counties declined. For mainline churches, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 37 counties declined. For Catholics, 14 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 29 counties declined.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide35

Complete Presentation hasState Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Declinefor each County

slide36

Complete Presentation hasState Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Declinefor each County

slide37

-30.5%

Boundary

-16.5%

Bonner

-22.1%

Kootenai

-29.7%

Shoshone

24.5%

Benewah

-9.2%

Latah

-8.9%

Clearwater

-29.8%

-61.8%

Nez Perce

Lewis

2.8%

Idaho

Idaho Counties

1990 - 2000 Growth or

Decline in Percentage

of the Population at

Worship in Mainline

Churches on any

Given Sunday

Blue = Decline

Rose = Growth

-10.7%

-6.4%

Lemhi

Adams

-17.8%

Valley

18.5%

Washington

35.4%

233.2%

Fremont

Clark

Custer

17.3%

-34.0%

-55.2%

Gem

Payette

-16.9%

Boise

231.8%

-25.8%

60.5%

Jefferson

Madison

Butte

Teton

-18.7%

-58.9%

Canyon

-11.2%

-50.0%

Camas

-12.6%

Ada

Elmore

-15.1%

44.1%

Bonneville

Blaine

Bingham

-34.3%

16.8%

120.2%

Lincoln

Gooding

Minidoka

-6.0%

-38.9%

7.5%

-32.5%

Power

Caribou

Jerome

-100.0%

Bannock

35.2%

Owyhee

-47.5%

Twin Falls

-50.8%

-40.7%

417.6%

Cassia

Bear Lake

Oneida

Franklin

Decline

Growth

No data

slide38
The Final Chart

shows the net gain in the number of churches in Idaho in the past decade. There was a net gain of 33 churches. However, 288 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

the state of the church in idaho
The State of the Church in Idaho . . .
  • Because of the relatively low percentage of church attendance in Idaho and recent growth in attendance in both Evangelical and Catholic churches, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges.
  • Church attendance has grown for Evangelicals and Catholics. The Evangelical church has grown most significantly, having grown 28% over the last 10 years (the Catholic church has grown by 16%). However, because of population growth, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining across the board. This resulted in a 8.1% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000.
  • A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Idaho. Two hundred and fifty-five additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

for more information
For More Information . . .
  • Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.
  • 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
  • The complete Idaho Powerpoint presentation is available athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UID20.htm
  • The Complete Boise Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Boise.htm
  • A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Idaho and Boise Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/ID0.htm

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

information on the information
Information on the Information
  • The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
  • Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
  • African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible.
  • Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
  • In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
  • Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
  • This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide43
This Presentation

is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches.

It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1

1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

for more information1
For More Information . . .
  • Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information.
  • To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use