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A Sample Presentation of The State of the Church in Tennessee and the Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville Metro Areas 1990-2000. Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org.

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slide1
A Sample Presentation of The State of the Churchin Tennessee and the Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville Metro Areas 1990-2000

Dave Olson

www.TheAmericanChurch.org

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide2

The first 19 slides are from the “State of the Church in Tennessee”Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UIA20.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide3
In 1996,

polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group.

For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide4
The Intent

of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions:

“How Many People Really Attend Church in Tennessee Every Week?”

“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Tennessee?”

As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Tennessee will begin to take shape.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide5
This study

uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Tennessee has an average church attendance percentage (23.5%) much higher than the national average (18.7%).

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide7
The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Tennessee.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide8

22.0%

23.9%

Pickett

30.6%

23.7%

17.3%

22.0%

23.0%

15.5%

Clay

Hancock

24.5%

Sullivan

Claiborne

24.0%

21.9%

Montgomery

Robertson

19.8%

22.6%

Macon

Stewart

21.0%

21.3%

15.7%

Johnson

24.3%

Hawkins

22.3%

28.4%

Sumner

24.1%

19.1%

Trousdale

26.4%

25.0%

16.5%

9.1%

27.4%

19.5%

Jackson

Scott

Campbell

Lake

26.0%

14.8%

Overton

Obion

Fentress

Grainger

25.5%

Henry

Carter

Cheatham

28.9%

Union

Weakley

Houston

30.2%

23.8%

Washington

21.5%

Smith

Hamblen

23.0%

14.4%

23.9%

22.7%

Davidson

Putnam

Greene

Wilson

25.2%

24.8%

Anderson

Morgan

24.4%

Dickson

25.5%

Jefferson

32.0%

27.4%

26.8%

29.2%

21.9%

18.5%

Unicoi

Dyer

29.1%

Humphreys

27.2%

Dekalb

Gibson

Knox

Benton

19.5%

30.5%

Carroll

26.9%

19.6%

Cumberland

Cocke

White

19.4%

Williamson

22.3%

Rutherford

Crockett

Cannon

Roane

23.4%

22.2%

20.1%

21.3%

Sevier

Hickman

27.0%

21.7%

Loudon

Lauderdale

Van Buren

22.5%

26.2%

19.5%

Henderson

27.4%

24.7%

21.4%

Warren

29.9%

16.9%

Blount

20.9%

Perry

Maury

Meigs

19.3%

27.9%

Madison

Haywood

Rhea

25.5%

Decatur

Bledsoe

Lewis

22.2%

25.8%

22.7%

Tipton

Bedford

17.1%

19.6%

14.8%

Coffee

McMinn

Marshall

Monroe

Grundy

27.0%

Chester

Sequatchie

24.3%

30.9%

27.1%

Moore

25.9%

23.7%

24.7%

17.0%

32.1%

30.0%

Wayne

15.9%

25.4%

Giles

23.6%

28.5%

Lawrence

Shelby

Hardeman

Hardin

Fayette

Hamilton

McNairy

Marion

Lincoln

Franklin

Polk

24.3%

Bradley

Tennessee - Counties - 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship in Christian

0.0% to 22.0%

Churches on a Given Weekend Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle Beige = Highest

22.0% to 25.5%

25.5% to 33.1%

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide9
The Next 2 Maps

show the population numbers for each county in Tennessee. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide10

49,015

4,945

12,370

7,976

54,433

153,048

6,786

134,768

130,449

29,862

17,499

Macon

Pickett

53,563

Clay

Stewart

Robertson

Sullivan

Hancock

7,259

10,984

21,127

39,854

Montgomery

7,954

32,450

Sumner

16,625

Claiborne

Johnson

20,118

31,115

Hawkins

56,742

17,808

Trousdale

34,895

Jackson

Scott

Campbell

Lake

107,198

8,088

17,712

Obion

35,912

Fentress

20,659

Overton

Henry

58,128

Carter

569,891

Union

Weakley

62,909

Washington

Houston

Cheatham

88,809

Smith

Grainger

43,156

62,315

19,757

Hamblen

17,667

16,537

71,330

Davidson

Greene

Wilson

44,294

Dickson

37,279

Putnam

Morgan

17,929

Unicoi

48,152

Benton

Anderson

382,032

17,423

29,475

46,802

Jefferson

33,565

Dyer

23,102

Humphreys

Gibson

Knox

126,638

Dekalb

182,023

Carroll

Cumberland

51,910

Cocke

14,532

12,826

White

71,170

22,295

Williamson

Rutherford

39,086

27,101

Roane

Crockett

Cannon

Sevier

Hickman

38,276

5,508

105,823

Loudon

Lauderdale

7,631

27,776

25,522

11,731

24,653

19,797

28,400

Warren

Van Buren

12,367

Blount

Perry

Maury

37,586

Henderson

Decatur

Madison

11,367

Haywood

Rhea

51,271

11,086

91,837

48,014

Bledsoe

26,767

38,961

Bedford

15,540

Lewis

Tipton

Meigs

Marshall

Coffee

14,332

11,370

McMinn

Monroe

Chester

5,740

Grundy

Sequatchie

16,842

39,926

29,447

897,472

28,105

25,578

28,806

307,896

69,498

31,340

39,270

87,965

Moore

Wayne

20,386

Giles

16,050

Lawrence

Shelby

Hardeman

Hardin

Fayette

Hamilton

McNairy

Lincoln

Franklin

Bradley

Marion

Polk

0 to 20,000

Tennessee - Counties - 2000 Population

20,000 to 100,000

100,000 to 897,473

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide11

6,632

397

2,891

738

12,939

47

9,452

34,270

27,168

3,725

3,733

8,998

Macon

Pickett

Clay

Stewart

Robertson

Sullivan

Hancock

1,339

1,687

2,769

4,775

Montgomery

825

1,956

Sumner

Claiborne

733

Johnson

2,482

3,227

Hawkins

5,237

4,114

Trousdale

Scott

Campbell

2,923

Jackson

Lake

14,883

1,070

3,569

Obion

8,772

Fentress

3,564

Overton

Henry

7,648

Carter

59,107

Union

Weakley

7,056

Washington

Houston

Cheatham

21,134

Smith

Grainger

8,095

10,942

2,457

Hamblen

1,118

3,080

2,013

Davidson

Greene

Wilson

11,278

Dickson

2,425

Putnam

Morgan

2,134

Unicoi

Benton

Anderson

1,837

46,283

3,063

1,961

12,066

Jefferson

4,424

Dyer

3,012

Humphreys

Knox

Gibson

Dekalb

45,617

63,453

Carroll

Cumberland

4,683

Cocke

1,154

2,359

White

20,127

5,541

Williamson

Rutherford

7,831

3,610

Roane

Crockett

Cannon

Sevier

Hickman

5,284

662

19,854

Loudon

Lauderdale

2,916

1,019

3,678

1,259

2,231

360

4,056

Warren

Van Buren

2,698

Blount

Perry

Maury

7,175

Madison

Henderson

Decatur

Haywood

2,120

Rhea

13,703

3,053

13,855

7,675

Bledsoe

5,228

8,420

Bedford

2,721

Lewis

Tipton

Meigs

Coffee

Marshall

970

2,507

McMinn

Monroe

Chester

1,019

Grundy

Sequatchie

2,907

3,706

4,623

71,142

4,728

2,945

3,247

22,360

14,686

3,183

Moore

4,545

14,253

Wayne

4,480

2,407

Lawrence

Giles

Shelby

Hardeman

Hardin

Fayette

Hamilton

McNairy

Lincoln

Franklin

Bradley

Marion

Polk

0 to 5,000

5,000 to 10,000

Tennessee - Counties - 1990-2000 Population Growth or Decline

10,000 to 100,000

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide12
The Next 2 Slides

show the ethnicity of Tennessee in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide16
The Next Graph

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Tennessee in 1990 and 2000. All groups have grown numerically over the last decade. However, as attendance grew, population also grew. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of the population attending church, with the exception of Catholic churches.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide19
The Next Graph

is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Tennessee in 1990 and 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide22
The 2 Next Charts

show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Tennessee. The first chart illustrates the dominant influence of the Baptist church. The second chart shows change in the percentage of the population attending churches by denomination over the last decade.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide25

The Complete Tennessee Powerpoint is 42 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide26

The next 10 slides are from the “State of the Church in Nashville” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/DesMoines.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide27
The Next Map

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Nashville Metro Area in 1990 and 2000. There has been numerical growth for Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as worship attendance has grown, the population has grown rapidly. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide30
The Next Chart

shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both the Nashville MSA and the nation. Average church attendance for the Nashville MSA is similar to that of the whole nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 number of churches per 100,000 people in the Nashville MSA and the nation. The Nashville MSA has more Christian churches per 100,000 people than the national average.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide33
The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county.

The Nashville MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) includes the counties of Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson and Wilson.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide34

23.0%

19.8%

Robertson

Sumner

28.9%

21.5%

23.9%

Davidson

Wilson

Dickson

27.2%

19.5%

Williamson

Rutherford

Cheatham

16.5%

Nashville MSA

2000 Christian Church

Attendance

as a Percentage

of Population 2000

Beige = Highest

Rose = Middle

Blue = Lowest

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide35
The Next Map

shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. One county grew in attendance percentage, while 7 counties declined.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide36

-3.4%

-15.7%

Robertson

Sumner

-4.9%

-11.3%

-5.3%

Davidson

Wilson

Dickson

3.8%

-6.3%

Williamson

Rutherford

Cheatham

-28.2%

Nashville MSA

1990 - 2000 Growth or

Decline in Percentage

of the Population at

Worship in All Christian

Churches on a

Given Weekend

Blue = Decline

Rose = Increase

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide37

The Complete Nashville Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide38

The next 12 slides are from the “State of the Church in Memphis” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide39
The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county.

The Memphis MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) includes the counties of Fayette, Shelby, Tipton, De Soto (MS) and Crittenden (AR).

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide40

21.5%

De Soto

23.2%

Crittenden

19.3%

Tipton

25.9%

17.0%

Shelby

Fayette

Memphis MSA

2000 Christian Church

Attendance

as a Percentage

of Population 2000

Beige = Highest

Rose = Middle

Blue = Lowest

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide41
The Next 2 Slides

show the ethnicity of the Memphis MSA in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide44
The Next Map

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Memphis Metro Area in 1990 and 2000. There has been numerical growth for Evangelical and Catholic churches and decline for Mainline churches. Unfortunately, as worship attendance has grown, the population has also grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide47
The Next 3 Maps

show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Memphis MSA between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, one county grew in attendance percentage, while 4 counties declined. For mainline churches, no county grew in attendance percentage, while 5 counties declined. For Catholics, 3 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 2 counties declined.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide48

-1.8%

De Soto

8.3%

Crittenden

-16.1%

Tipton

-8.7%

-21.1%

Shelby

Fayette

Memphis MSA

1990 - 2000 Growth or

Decline in Percentage

of the Population at

Worship in All Evangelical

Churches on a

Given Weekend

Blue = Decline

Rose = Increase

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide49

-16.9%

De Soto

-18.2%

Crittenden

-20.9%

Tipton

-14.5%

-3.4%

Shelby

Fayette

Memphis MSA

1990 - 2000 Growth or

Decline in Percentage

of the Population at

Worship in All Mainline

Churches on a

Given Weekend

Blue = Decline

Rose = Increase

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide50

33.1%

De Soto

-60.9%

Crittenden

54.3%

Tipton

-2.4%

12.2%

Shelby

Fayette

Memphis MSA

1990 - 2000 Growth or

Decline in Percentage

of the Population at

Worship in All Catholic

Churches on a

Given Weekend

Blue = Decline

Rose = Increase

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide51

The Complete Memphis Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide52

The next 9 slides are from the “State of the Church in Knoxville” Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide53
The Next Map

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Knoxville Metro Area in 1990 and 2000. There has been numerical growth for Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as worship attendance has grown, the population has grown rapidly. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide56
The Next Graph

is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in the Knoxville MSA from 1990 to 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide59
The Next 3 Maps

show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in the Knoxville MSA in 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide60

8.8%

Union

16.7%

Anderson

20.6%

Knox

15.7%

18.4%

Sevier

16.6%

Loudon

Blount

Knoxville MSA

2000 Evangelical

Church Attendance

as a Percentage

of Population 2000

Beige = Highest

Rose = Middle

Blue = Lowest

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide61

0.4%

Union

3.8%

Anderson

4.7%

Knox

2.6%

4.3%

Sevier

4.2%

Loudon

Blount

Knoxville MSA

2000 Mainline

Church Attendance

as a Percentage

of Population 2000

Beige = Highest

Rose = Middle

Blue = Lowest

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide62

Union

2.4%

Anderson

2.0%

Knox

1.1%

0.8%

Sevier

0.8%

Loudon

Blount

Knoxville MSA

2000 Catholic

Church Attendance

as a Percentage

of Population 2000

Beige = Highest

Rose = Middle

Blue = Lowest

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide63
The Final Chart

shows the net gain in the number of churches in the Knoxville MSA in the past decade. There was a net gain of 5 churches. A net gain of 199 churches was needed to keep up with population growth in the Knoxville metro area from 1990 - 2000.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide65

The Complete Knoxville Powerpoint is 45 slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm.It includes maps of church attendance in every county in the metro area, as well as denominational charts, average size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts and population growth information.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

slide66
This Presentation

is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches.

It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1

1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

for more information
For More Information . . .
  • Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.
  • 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
  • The complete Tennessee Powerpoint presentation is available athttp://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UTN20.htm
  • The Complete Nashville Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Nashville.htm
  • The Complete Memphis Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Memphis.htm
  • The Complete Knoxville Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Knoxville.htm
  • A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Tennessee and the Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/TN0.htm

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use