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Technology and International Relations. Technology has had profound impacts on warfare and thus broader International Politics Some key concepts to keep in mind about changes in technology Combat involved decision making under risk analysis Implementation of Technology requires resources

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technology and international relations
Technology and International Relations
  • Technology has had profound impacts on warfare and thus broader International Politics
  • Some key concepts to keep in mind about changes in technology
    • Combat involved decision making under risk analysis
    • Implementation of Technology requires resources
      • Cost/benefit calculations involved
    • Issues of cognition are involved in integrating technology
more conceptual issues
More conceptual issues
  • Loss-of-strength gradient
    • E.g. Melee vs. ranged weapons
  • Offense vs. defense
  • Technology influences the ability of political units to sustain themselves
  • “Lanchester Battle Theory”
    • Assessment based on force structures
      • Ancient times – linear multipliers
      • Modern war – squared multipliers
a brief history of military technology
A Brief History of Military Technology
  • Start with Pre-history
  • Run it to present
  • First weapons
    • Basic weapon types (or weapon systems)
      • Mêlée
      • Ranged
      • Armor
      • Fortifications
      • Transportation
paleolithic 10 000 bce
Paleolithic - < 10,000 BCE
    • Rocks
  • Bones, sticks (Mêlée weapons for you gamers out there)
    • Fire hardened sticks
    • Basically Clubs
  • Ranged weapons
    • Darts
    • Slings
    • Bow, Arrow
    • Spears, javelin, atlatl
paleolithic defense
Paleolithic – Defense
  • Fire
  • the wall
    • smaller # of defenders versus attackers
    • wait prepared
    • this made agriculture "cost-effective“
    • Lanchester theory
      • 3-1 ratio of offense to defense is classical estimate

Tel es-Sultan in Jericho

1st Walled city ~9000BCE

neolithic m l e weapons 10 000 bce 3 000 bce
Neolithic – Mêlée weapons(10,000 BCE – 3,000 BCE)
  • Axe
  • Mace
  • Knife
  • Polearms (quarterstaff, trident)
neolithic ranged weapons
Neolithic – Ranged weapons
  • Blowgun
  • Throwing sticks, axes
  • Dart
  • Bola
neolithic defense armor
Neolithic – Defense & Armor
  • Armor
    • Shield (13-14th century BC Egyptian)
    • Helm – 900BC Assyrian
    • Cataphract (~300BC)
  • Siege Weapons
    • Siege Tower
bronze age 3300 bce 1200 bce
Bronze Age 3300 BCE – 1200 BCE
  • Swords – early ones in Turkey and China
  • Knives
  • The Wheel
    • Chariot – Sumerian,Egyptian
greeks
Greeks
  • The phalanx
    • Hoplites locked shields
    • Second & third ranks poked spears over
    • Allowed greater ratio of fighters
  • Military discipline
    • allowed for protection on the right
    • made attacks predictable
  • The ability to march and maneuver offset this.
greek weapons
Greek Weapons
  • Crossbow (but also China) – 5th Cent BCE
  • Siege weapons
    • Ballista
    • Catapult
  • Greave
  • Greek Fire
roman empire
Roman Empire
  • Professional soldier/standing army
    • Ranks from Greeks (elected!)
    • Discipline
    • Consolidated from Warlord-like system
  • Mobility
    • Roads
  • Prohibited castles
  • increase in horsemanship
    • Chariots/heavy cavalry
      • The province of the wealthy – had to purchase equipment- and horse!
    • Stirrups invented by Chinese in Jin dynasty ~300AD
    • Widespread use in China by 477 AD (?)
    • Made it to Europe in 7th & 8th century
roman weapons
Roman Weapons
  • Static Weapons – Caltrops
  • Testudo
  • Pilum
    • Bends after throwing
  • Onager
  • Catapulta – tossed javelins
the roman empire in decline
The Roman Empire in Decline
  • The Carolingian Empire used cavalry for logistics
    • Became significant political structure in the West as Rome declined
    • Charles Martel
    • Charlemagne
  • The Holy Roman Empire began to confront the steady introduction of the stirrup and more refined horsemanship
    • Allowed Castles
      • Protection of food & water supplies
    • height
  • The Rise of Fortress Europe
    • Which is, to say, Feudal Europe
medieval
Medieval
  • Siege weapons
    • Onager – sling with single rock
    • Mangonel – bucket-like catapult
    • Battering rams
    • Trebuchet
    • Petard – explosive for attacking walls
medieval1
Medieval
  • Longbow
    • Effective in Crecy and Agincourt
  • Cannon Used scatteringly in Europe
    • 100 years war, Battle of Crecy, 1346
    • Constantinople 1453
      • The Great Turkish Bombard (Sahi)
  • The Pike square (Swiss invention) establishes the primacy of infantry over cavalry
  • The fort/castle evolves
    • Forts & castles abound during this period due to the loss of either central authority or ‘national security’
castles
Castles
  • Motte-and-bailey – mounds with perimeter ditches, and wooden palisade
  • Keep – inner fortification
  • Gatehouses to protect weakest spot
  • Rounded walls to protect from cannon and square towers to protect from mining and battering rams
  • Star forts
  • It takes hundreds of years for these innovations to evolve
castles cannon
Castles & Cannon
  • With the advent of castles, Europe fragmented in 1000s of principalities
  • With cannon the trend reversed
  • Cannon sped the shift of the balance of power to the side with the most cash
    • Artillery is expensive to purchase, maintain and practice
    • The side with the most money wins
seapower
Seapower
  • The Galley had been the mainstay of naval weaponry for 2000 years (800BC to ~1400AD)
    • ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver
  • Cannon changed this.
  • Replaced by man-o-war in 14th-15th century
    • up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time.
  • Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. –
    • This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a further rash of colonization in the late 1800's
seapower and trade
Seapower and trade
  • The caravel formed the first trading fleets (Prince Henry the Navigator)
    • Utilized more diverse sail arrangements (lateen as well as square sails)
  • Maps become substantially better in late 15th early 16th century
seapower and wealth
Seapower and wealth
  • Seapower aids in the development of regional economies, and eventually to the development of a global economy
  • Naval capacity allows for
    • greater comparative advantage
    • More direct transactions (fewer intermediaries) hence greater access to the developing markets
american revolution
American Revolution
  • Musket – muzzle loader
    • The long land pattern musket –
      • Or “Brown Bess”
  • Tactics changed as the weapons became more available
the american civil war
The American Civil War
  • The trench
  • Railroad
  • Balloon
  • Ironclads
  • Breech loading rifle
    • Spenser repeating rifle
slide25
WWI
  • Machine gun (WWI)- defensive
  • Tank (WWI)
  • The Airplane (WWI)
  • Poison Gas/Chemical weapons
  • Submarine (Invented in Revolutionary War)
  • Radio
  • Automobile
slide26
WWII
  • Sub Machine gun – portable, offensive
  • The aircraft carrier
  • Radar
  • Paratroopers
  • Cryptography
    • (German Enigma machine)
  • Incendiary weapons (Dresden, Tokyo)
  • Rocket/missile (WWII)
  • Nuclear weapons (WWII)
the cold war
The Cold War
  • ICBMs
  • Satellites
  • ABM
korean war
Korean War
  • Jet aircraft
  • Helicopter introduced
  • M.A.S.H
    • Replaced by Combat Support Hospitals
vietnam
Vietnam
  • Helicopter
  • Computers
  • Napalm
  • Defoliants (Agent Orange)
  • Precision instruments
    • ThanhHoa Bridge – 1972 – first use
persian gulf iraq afghanistan
Persian Gulf/Iraq/Afghanistan
  • Stealth technology
  • Information battlefield
  • Cyber War
  • IED
  • ABM – Patriot missile
  • Unmanned aircraft
    • Predator
all of which leads us to the present
All of which leads us to the present
  • Star Wars
  • NMD
  • Cyber War
  • Weapon system senility
    • Weapon systems age
    • Or become vulnerable and are replaced
star wars s trategic d efense i nitiative nmd
Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD)
  • Begun in previous administrations
    • Nike-Zeus
    • ABM
    • And announced and promoted under Reagan
  • SDI is a defensive concept
  • Concept is the implementation of a defensive shield to protect against ICBMs
type of sdi systems
Type of SDI systems
  • Energy Weapons
    • Lasers
    • Particle Beams
  • Space bases kinetic energy weapons
    • Rail guns
    • Interceptors
  • Ground based ABM systems
    • ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor Subsystem)
    • HEDI (High Endo-atmospheric Defense Interceptor)
star wars s trategic d efense i nitiative nmd1
Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative – NMD)
  • The basics of anti-ballistic missile defense
  • Time Altitude
    • Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km
    • Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs
    • Midcourse Phase
    • Reentry Phase
kinetic energy weapons
Kinetic energy weapons
  • KE weapons work based upon their velocity, and the velocity of the target
  • Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000m/sec imparts 2000000gr/sec2 of energy
  • Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000m/sec imparts 72000000gr/sec2 of energy
  • Damage is exponential with velocity
railgun test
RailGun test

Railgun US Navy 2008.jpg Photograph taken from a high-speed video camera during a record-setting firing of an electromagnetic railgun (EMRG) at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren, Va., on January 31, 2008, firing a 3.2 kg projectile at 10.64MJ (megajoules) with a muzzle velocity of 2520 meters per second. The Office of Naval Research's EMRG program is part of the Department of the Navy's Science and Technology investments, focused on developing new technologies to support Navy and Marine Corps war fighting needs. This photograph is a frame taken from a high-speed video camera. U.S. Navy Photograph (Released)

Video

effort for full sdi shield
Effort for Full SDI Shield
  • The magnitude of the support effort required
  • 1. # of satellites
    • since effective range of most systems is 1000km
    • satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage
  • If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles
    • (or 1400 deployed MIRVs)
    • this means 240 satellites
  • If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter launches
    • @ $100M apiece…
sdi and deterrence stability
SDI and Deterrence Stability
  • If Flexible response is a policy that exists under the umbrella of Mutual assured destruction, does a defensive “shield” destabilize deterrence?
slide39
NMD
  • Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs)
  • Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3), which includes:
    • Battle Management, Command, and Control (BMC2), and
    • In-Flight Interceptor Communications System (IFICS)
  • X-Band Radars (XBRs)
  • Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR)
  • Defense Support Program satellites/Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)
accidental launch
Accidental launch
  • Command & control in emerging nuclear arsenals is less secure?
  • Why should C&C be less capable in a newly emerging nuclear arsenal?
  • Suppose probability if 1/50
    • Is risk a series model?
    • A parallel model?
rogue states
Rogue states
  • Are rogue states deterrable?
  • It all becomes a question of resolve
    • Does NMD influence resolve?
    • Does the uncertainty of the effectiveness influence resolve?
slide42
NMD
  • The deployment of NMD is generally suggested by one of two scenarios
    • A rogue state
    • An accidental launch
  • Likely rogue states:
    • North Korea, Iran, (Iraq prior to 2003)
    • Syria?, Libya?
    • Aberrant Russian commander?
    • Spreadsheet for Utility Calculus
the future of war
The Future of War
  • What are the key big ticket items in today’s military?
    • Tanks
    • Aircraft carriers
    • Bombers
    • Fighters
  • Increasingly larger portions of procurement costs of weapons systems are devoted to defense
weapons systems senility
Weapons systems senility
  • Smart weapons
  • Sensors
  • Increasing load/cost devoted to system defense
    • Cost of M1A1 is ~$4.3M
    • Cost of Hellfire is $50K-200K
    • A SADARM is $7000
take aircraft carriers
Take Aircraft carriers
  • Where most effective…
    • Close support in coastal waters
  • Most vulnerable
    • Anti-ship missiles (e.g. Exocet)
    • Aircraft – 50% + used for carrier defense
    • Mines
  • Cost is ~$6B
what next
What Next?
  • Increasing miniaturization
  • Increasing broadband information processing
  • Nanotechnology
slide49
Over the next century look for:
    • The End of the Gunboat
    • The End of the Carrier
    • The End of the Tank
    • The End of the Submarine
    • The End of the Manned Combat Aircraft
  • Sensors, stand-off capability, and troop mobility
the evolution of weapons systems
The Evolution of Weapons Systems
  • Think in terms of
    • Adaptation
    • Survival of fittest
    • Environmental niches
nuclear winter
Nuclear Winter
  • In the 1980s, concern for the climatic effects of nuclear war became notable
  • The soot caused by urban fires would be lifted to the stratosphere by the plume of firestorm
  • Once in the stratosphere, solar heating of the dark dust and soot particles would sustain the particlas in the air for decades
effects of nuclear winter
Effects of Nuclear Winter
  • While controversial and currently hypothetical they could entail
    • A 20 C cooling of large portions of the centers of the North American, European and Asia land mass.
    • The means freezing temperatures in the summer
    • Agriculture becomes impossible, except possibly at or near the equator
further effects
Further effects
  • Spread would be global, not restricted to the Northern Hemisphere
  • Precipitation would drop by 45%-75%
  • Ozone would be significantly depleted on a global scale