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Network SoC 산업 - “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -. 2003.10.18 임 준서 Paion . Agenda. I. Demands 시장에 대한 이해의 필요성 Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못 II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황 NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개 경쟁관계 – 별자리도 Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정. Agenda. III. 변화와 대안 Telco Crash 생태계( Eco-System) 의 변화

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agenda
Agenda

I. Demands

  • 시장에 대한 이해의 필요성
  • Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못

II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황

  • NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개
  • 경쟁관계 – 별자리도
  • Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정
agenda3
Agenda

III. 변화와 대안

  • Telco Crash
  • 생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화
  • 변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들 ; 예) PMC-Sierra, Vitesse, AMCC
  • 자금시장 변화
  • Network 기술 시장 대안
  • Network SOC 의 Re-positioning
agenda4
Agenda

IV. SoC 산업의 성공적인미래

  • Global Trend
  • 중국 시장의 부상
  • Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry
  • 제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning
  • Trend 읽기 – 문화
  • 기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당
  • 교육적인 측면에서
demand

Demand

시장에 대한 이해의 필요

통신 사업자의 서비스 변화에 따른 장비 및 부품 수요

Eco-System 의 중요성

core router hype
Core Router : Hype ?

Cisco

GSR12416

Juniper

M160

Charlotte

Aranea-1

Lucent

Nx64000

Avici

TSR

Pluris

Teraplex

  • 인터넷 트래픽의 증가, 3달에2배씩 [ 미국 상무성]
  • WorldCom
  • 2001년까지, 대형 Terabit 라우터, 대용량 고속 스위치 패브릭, 네트워크 프로세서 개발에 막대한 투자

$215M

2002 가을

Aggregated

Switching

Bandwidth

320~640G

160Gbps+

320G~1.9T

320G~6.4T

400G ~ 36T

320G~19.2T

investment bubble
Investment : Bubble ?

이더넷 신기술 워크샵 2001-5-24

big picture
Big Picture

Telco Market

Terabit Core Router

MPLS Router

Metro Core

Last Mile

Access

Metro Edge

Enterprise

Metro Ethernet

(L3 switch)

PDSN

802.11 AP

EPON (OLT)

PSTN

Storage Networking –

SAN Fabric, TOE

LAN SW

BSC

Security –

VPN, IDS, Firewall

CDN/ Server Load balancing

Ethernet

EPON (ONU)

IP-DSLAM

Enterprise Switch

VDSL

Base stations

VDSL

slide9
KT 의 메트로 및 가입자 스위치

2.5 G

2.5 G

Cisco GSR12000

백본

라우터

G/E

메트로 코어

대용량 스위치

  • >120Gbps, 48G 포트
  • Extreme Black Diamond 8808
  • >36Gbps, 20G+128F 포트
  • Riverstone 38000

메트로 코어

중용량 스위치

G/E

  • >16Gbps, 4G+70F 포트
  • Cisco Catalyst 6506,
  • Riverstone 8600,
  • Extreme Alpine 3808

1G

1G

Ntopia

스위치

VOD server

GES

1G

1G

엑세스

스위치

엔터프라이즈

스위치

  • >8Gbps, 2G+32F 포트
  • 로커스, 미리넷
  • 다산, 코어세스, 텔리언

DSLAM

FE

FE

[KT 메트로 이더넷 망 구성도]

broadband access
Broadband Access
  • Carrier overcapacity than demand, i.e., carriers are in no condition to purchase any equipment.
  • 전반적으로 침체되었던 네트워크 장비 산업은 2002 년 후반기 VDSL, Metro Ethernet 으로 회복되면서, 2002년도 평균 42% 성장함.
  • KT 등 통신 사업자 주도의 VDSL (Ntopia-V) 및 Metro Ethernet (Ntopia-E) 사업 그리고, Netspot 사업은 Broadband 분야에서 아시아 및 한국의 성공적인 시장을 창출하였음.
  • 주요 칩셋 벤더의 주된 타깃 시장이 아시아로 이동함.
  • 2003년의화두는 여전히 VDSL 고도화였고, 향후중국이최대시장으로부상할것임
  • 국내 중대형 스위치 시스템은 전량 해외 수입 상황임.
epon 100mbps broadband
EPON – 100Mbps+ Broadband 서비스 , 시스템, 부품 분야에서 한국이 주도할 수 있는 단계임

20km

MTU/MDU

EPON-OLT

ONU

Core

VDSL,

Ethernet,

FTTH

Splitter

16:1~32:1

Metro Ethernet

ONT

Home Network

  • Optical First Mile
  • Minimum fiber/space in CO
  • No power supply in field
  • Downstream broadcast (video)
  • 100Mbps ~1Gbps Broadband service, cf. VDSL 13~25Mbps, 50Mbps

DSLAM

slide12
네트워크 SoC- 통신 서비스 인프라의 핵심 부품
  • Backbone & Metro – Telco Market
    • Core/Terabit Router - Network Processor, Switch Fabric
    • Metro Ethernet Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric
  • Last Mile Access Market
    • EPON (FTTH) OLT/ONU, VDSL - Ethernet Switch Processor
  • Home Networking
    • NAT, Home Gateway, Wireless Switch - Low end Network Processor
  • Enterprise Market
    • Enterprise Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric
    • Security VPN, L7 Content switch - Network Processor
soc state of the art

네트워크 SOC 기술의 State-of-the-art

Network Processor

Co-Processor (Classifier, Lookup, Security, Storage)

Switch Fabric

Ethernet Switch Processor

network processor value positioning
Network Processor Value Positioning
  • Network Processor ?
    • A programmable device optimized for packet processing
    • Header parsing, pattern matching, bit-field manipulation, table look-ups, packet modification, traffic management
    • Must be done at wire speed, Handle Layer 3-7 tasks
  • Reduced design cycle for NEV
    • Adaptability to changing standards and protocols being developed– IPv6, SIP, IPSec, MPLS, DiffServ …
    • Faster implementation of Incremental features
    • Performance “headroom” for future upgrades : 50% in usual
  • Total Cost Of Ownership
forwarding and qos functions
Forwarding and QoS functions

Ingress

Egress

Scheduler

DRR, WFQ

Queue

scheduling

Per Interface

WRED

VOQ

Switch Fabric

Input

Ports

Classification

Output

Ports

IP

Lookup

Rate

Limiting

Policing/Marking

DSCP written

L2/L3/L4 filter

Drop

  • Usage based Billing Service
  • Wire-Speed Packet Classification for per-flow rate Limiting
  • DSCP (Differentiated Service Code Point) written at ingress
  • Classified and potentially discarded by WRED (Congestion avoidance)
  • Assigned to the appropriate outgoing queue
  • Output Scheduling for transmission (priority queuing)
network processing platform
Network Processing Platform

Control Plane (Protocol Processing & Management )

CPU

Data Plane Processing

PCI, HT, RapidIO, PCI-Ex

Network Processor

Switch Fabric

High-Speed

Interface

MAC/PHY

Gigabit

Ethernet/

IEEE802.3ah/

IEEE802.11/

VDSL

Packet Classifier

Packet

Processor

(Lookup &

Forwarding)

Traffic

Manager

(QoS,

Scheduling)

Security Engine

NPF LA-1

CSIX, SPI3, SPI4.2, NPF SI

Search

Engine - CAM

Lookup

Memory

function map
Function Map
  • Routing (BGP, OSPF)
  • MPLS Routing
  • Management (SNMP, RMON, MIB)
  • Wire Speed Layer 4~7 Content Inspection
  • Load Balancing
  • Per-Flow Classification

CPU

Network Processor

Switch Fabric

High-Speed

Interface

Gigabit

Ethernet

Packet Classifier

Packet

Processor

(Lookup &

Forwarding)

Traffic

Manager

(QoS,

Scheduling)

EPON

IEEE802.3ah

Security Engine

Wireless

IEEE802.11

VDSL

  • High speed switching
  • Non Blocking - VOQ
  • Reliability/Redundancy
  • Bandwidth Scalability : 80G,320G,640G

MAC/Framer, PHY

  • IP Lookup
  • IPv6 Lookup
  • Layer3+ Forwarding
  • NAT
  • MPLS
  • Field Manipulation
  • VPN - IPsec
  • SSL acceleration
  • TCP termination
  • Security Filtering
  • Security Rule

Search

Engine - CAM

Lookup

Memory

  • Congestion Avoidance
  • Priority Scheduling
  • Bandwidth Policing
  • Service Level Agreement
  • Billing, Rate Limiting
network processor issues
Network Processor Issues
  • Processing Bandwidth
      • 1G (1.488Mpps)  OC-48 (7Mpps)  OC-192 (32Mpps)  40G (120+ Mpps)
      • Deep packet classification, 1M LUT
      • Multi-Processors : 100%+ compute headroom
      • More powerful engines – VLIW, SMP, Dynamic multithreading
      • Extensive use of hard-wired co-processor, classification, etc
  • Memory Bandwidth
    • Layer 3 10G requires 5GBps + sustained, 6~10 GBps peak
      • 4 * Rambus = 6.4 GBps peak
      • 256 bit DDR-266 = 8.5 GBps peak
      • 300MHz DDR = 9.4GBps peak
    • Layer 7 10G
      • Need 20GBps sustained memory BW just for packet queuing
      • Combination of embedded DRAM (bandwidth) and external memory(capacity)
  • Line/Fabric Interface
    • Need higher bandwidth & low pin counts
    • CSIX-L1 scales poorly to 10G - Too many pins
    • SPI4.2 standard for 10G line side
interface
[참고] Interface
  • Utopia (ATM Interface)
    • Level 1 : 8bit, 25MHz  OC-3(155Mbps)
    • Level 2 : 16bit, 50MHz  OC-12(640Mbps)
    • Level 3 : 32bit, 104MHz  OC-48(3.2Gbps)  OIF SPI-3
    • SPI-4.1 : 64bit, 200MHz  OC-192(10Gbps)
    • SPI-4.2 : 16bit, 622MHz  OC-192(10Gbps), LVDS 311MHz DDR
  • CSIX L1
    • CFrame : 32xn bit(n=1,2,3,4) with 100/200/250MHz  up to 32Gbps
      • 32bit @100MHz  32Gbps, OC-48
      • 64bit @200MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192
      • 128bit @100MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192
    • LVCMOS(166MHz), LHSTL(250MHz), Trace Length : 6~8 inch
    • Header(2B) – Header Ext(4B) – Payload(256B) – Parity(2B)
      • Class (8bit  256 Class) , Destination (12 bit  4096 CSIX port)
    • Xon/Xoff port-level flow control, In-band control CFrame
    • Too many implementation option, Not optimized for 10G
  • NPF SI :
    • Logical protocol scalable from 10Gbps to 40 Gbps
    • 16 bit LVDS datapath 622MHz
    • NP-NP : 256 ~1M port, 256 class, NP-Fabric : 64K port, 256 class
tcam lookup processing
Performance

2Mb

$70

66~100 Msps

0.18um

4.5Mb

0.15um

100 Msps

$150

0.13um

9Mb

133 Msps

$300

tCAM Lookup Processing
  • Search entries that match key(comparand)
    • CAM returns address of the matching location
    • Most designs optimized for 72 bit search, 72-bit comparand bus
    • Often runs at 2xcore clock or in DDR mode
    • 144bit key Write operation in single memory cycle for five-tuple lookup
    • 576bit search for IPv6
flow classification for qos
Flow Classification for QoS

Classification

(classify flows)

Scheduling

(Priority)

Rate Limiting

(Per-flow RL)

Control packets

Voice flows

HTTP flows

FTP flows

per flow rate limiting
Per-Flow Rate Limiting
  • Flow
    • A sequence of packets with one common characteristics

based on any field at certain layer for some period of time

    • Associate IP packets to flows, provide guarantees for specific flows
  • Rate Limiting
    • Bandwidth allocation for each Customer/Application/Flow
    • If current rate is within agreed controlled(in-profile), admit

Otherwise (out-of-profile) discard or downgrade packet

    • Bandwidth Provisioning granularity
  • Packet Classification
    • Identifies the flow to the which an arriving packet belongs.
    • Identification may require complex operations
    • Stores this information internally once, then other blocks of NP operation for each packet using flow ID
npu industry
NPU Industry
  • System vendors want Complete Solutions
    • NPU, search engine, MAC, PHY, fabric
      • Reduces TCO, project overhead, and design time
      • Easier for new OEMs to enter market
      • Fast market creation using off-the-shelf NPUs
    • Successful vendors must offer all parts – driven continued M&A
  • Big CPU vendors jumped in
    • Intel, IBM, Motorola
  • PHY vendors moving upstream
    • AMCC, Vitesse, Agere
    • Software is a new challenge
  • Related players acquired
      • SwitchOn, Orologic, Maker, NetBoost, SoftCom, Trillium, QED, SiByte
  • Startup continue to emerge
      • EZchip, ClearWater, Cognigine, Bay Micro, Internet Machine, …
competition map np1
Competition Map [NP1]

AMCC (Market 40%)

AMCC7250

  • Same 7120 core
  • 220MHz, 0.18um
  • 2 SPI3 (2GMII or OC48c) Duplex
  • 10Gbps TM (5700) on Line card
  • ViX 5Gbps (no CSIX)
  • 2~4Gbps (Memory BW)
  • $300

4th Generation

3rd Generation

  • AMCC nP7510
  • 0.13um Full-Customized nPcore
  • 10G (Simplex) Sample 4Q01
  • Six engine @ 330MHz
  • ViX/SPI4 conversion chip
  • More Headroom
  • Ingress/Egress 2K Flow each
  • AMCC nP7570
  • SPI4.2 Duplex version
  • Biggest Competitor IXP2800

nP7510

10G

nP7570

10G

nP7250

OC-48

2002.May

2003

Sample June2001

nP7270

OC-48

nP3400

2G+24F

nP3404

4xGE

AMCC 7120

2 packet engine(nPcore RISC)

220MHz, 0.18um

3Mpps, 5Gbps (line rate)

ViX 5Gbps (Fabric interface)

440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup)

Strong Compiler, Design Win Winner

0.13um Q2 2002

May 2001

2000

nP7120

2xGE

nP3450

2G+24F

nP3454

4xGE

Integrated Switch

2000

Sample 3Q03

Sample 3Q03

NP Pioneer

INTEL ( 11%)

IXP1200

IXP2400

IXP2800

IXP2850

  • StrongArm, 3Mpps@200MHz
  • IXBUS (External MAC)
  • 3rd software – Teja, IPinfusion,LynuxWorks
  • SDKv2.0 May/2001 (free)
  • C compiler $2000/site
  • Aggressive design win Push
  • Simplex OC-48
  • 7Mpps @600MHz
  • CSIXL1 over SPI3
  • 0.18um, Xscale based
  • $200~300, Sep. 2002
  • 10G (Simplex)
  • 30Mpps with 16 packet engine(1.4GHz)
  • 700MHz Xscale at 0.13um
  • CSIX over SPI4.2
  • >$400, Apr. 2003
  • 2800 + Security
competition map np2
Competition Map [NP2]

IBM (19%)

Agere ( 9%)

APP550

APP750

Payload

NP4GS3

NP4GX

  • APP550
  • Duplex(OC-48, 4GbE)
  • TSMC 0.13um
  • 266MHz
  • $550, 2Q03 Volume
  • Traffic Manager $550
  • APP520
  • Duplex (2GbE, OC-48)
  • $195, Apr. 2003
  • APP750
  • Simplex (10Gbps)
  • SPI4.2
  • Connection to PI40
  • Agere 0.16um
  • Sample 2003
  • NP+TM (860+$700)
  • PayloadPlus
  • 5Gbps, 3chip Solution ($585)
  • High-end ATM applications
  • On-chip SAR (OC-48 speed)
  • Scale well OC-192
  • TSMC 0.18um Full custom, Late/2001
  • NP4GS3(Rainier)
  • 4GbE MAC
  • PowerPC 405 + 16 packet engine
  • 8 Gbps line, 2x7.5Gbps fabric (DASL)
  • Difficult to program - No compiler, support customer base
  • Limited performance and poor scalability
  • 0.18um, $400
  • 2001/Q1 Production
  • 4 GMII with CSIX/UDASL
  • 0.13um
  • Dropped

Motorola (15%)

C-5

C-5e

C-3e

C-10

  • 4 GbE, OC-48
  • 32bit Utopia, CSIX
  • MIPS-based compiler
  • 233MHz 0.18um
  • Production 2001, $400~500
  • 10 Gbps (Simplex)
  • 600MHz 0.13um Custom design
  • SPI4.2
  • Sample 2H03 with Q-10
  • 4 GbE, OC-48
  • 32bit CSIX
  • 266MHz 0.15um
  • Production 2002, $450
  • Traffic Manager Q-5 ($575)
  • 1 GbE or 8 FE
  • 16bit Utopia
  • 180MHz 0.15um
  • Production 2002, $200
  • Traffic Manager Q-3 ($235)
npu industry update
NPU Industry Update
  • NPU Market Forecasting
    • NPU Market $1.5B @2005 [Cahners In-Stat, 2002]
    • NPU Market $728M @2005 [Gartner Dataquest, 2002]
  • NPU Market 2002
    • $65 million (total Revenue) - A far cry from the hundreds of million dollars that IC maker till believe is possible
    • 600 design wins @2001 leads to $65 million @2002
    • Market is questionable with annual $50 million spending
  • NPU Player
    • AMCC market leader : 38 %
    • Intel : 200 design wins
    • Motorola : 15%
    • IBM : 19%, High-end, but pulled out
    • Agere : Late player in IP, but actively
    • Vitesse : pulled out from long-haul business
    • Many startup ceased operation, even Big player pulled out
  • Key Issues
    • What is sweet-spot application? Storage, Security, L7 for IDC
    • Who will be remained? Alternative? 10G NPU, Access, Wireless
constellation
ClearSpeed

Fast-Chip

Acorn

Solidum

Clearwater

Cognigine

MUSIC

IBM Rainier

Vitesse IQ2000

Allayer AL1032

Constellation

40G NPU

10G+ NPU

Co-processor

EZchip NP-2

Silicon Access

EZchip NP-1

Xelerated Packet

Intel IXP2800

AMCC nP7510

Internet Machine

SwitchOn

Lexra

Agere APP750

CAM

Bay Micro

2.5G NPU

IDT

Cypress/Lara

Paion GEP2F24

SiberCore

Paion GEP2C02

NetLogic

Motorola C-5

Storage processor (TOE, iSCSI, FC)

BroadCom SB12500

Agere APP550

Intel IXP2400

1G NPU

Trebia

MindSpeed CX27470

AMCC nP7250

Silverback

Aristos

Alacritech

AMCC nP7120

Qlogic

Adaptec

Intel IXP1200

Wintegra

SwitchCore CXE-16

Galileo GalNet-3

tcam lookup processor
tCAM Lookup Processor
  • IDT : Current market Leader
    • Major wins for Cisco, Acquiring IBM solution
    • 18Mb & LA-1, 100Msps, TSMC 0.13um, Sampling [2002.9]
    • 250Msps version 18Mb Sample Planned [1Q03]
  • Cypress/Lara : 2nd leader
    • NSE1000/2000 - 18Mb & LA-1, 233Msps, Sample [4Q02]
    • Leverage Ayama technology M&A [Feb. 2002]
  • NetLogic : aggressive performance
    • 18Mb NSE Sample
    • Second-source agreement with Micron[2003.1]
    • Micron pulled out [2003.3]
  • SiberCore : superior
    • 18Mb, 9Mb+LA-1, 288bit search with 50Msps, $250, Sampling [2002.8]
    • Ultra 18Mb Sampling [4Q02]
  • KLSI : Early lead with 4.5Mb
    • 9Mb delaying with competitors shipping 18Mb
    • Retreat from tCAM market at Jan/2003
  • Micron/Music : Losing ground
    • Acquisition of Music - for low-end tCAM, 2002
    • Abandon internal development, Partnership with NetLogic
    • But, Micron pulled out from tCAM market [March 2003]
packet classifier
Packet Classifier
  • L4~7 Classification Chip
  • Application for Content Switching, Firewall, Virus scanning, Intrusion Detection
security engines
[참고] Security Engines
  • Encryption Engines best suited for IPsec VPN applications
  • Integrated high-speed encryption engine with Network Processor will drive future
  • Gbps IPSec, SSL acceleration
  • Broadcom :
    • BCM5850 current fastest IPsec chip
    • 4.8Gbps IPsec (3DES, SHA-1, AES)
    • PL3 interface to BCM1250 processor
    • 2002 Oct Sample, $520
    • Move toward integrating security chip into other products
  • Cavium NitroxII
    • First flow-through 2~10Gbps IPsec & SSL performance
    • 5Gbps IPsec, 38,000 SSL
    • 2002.4 Sampling, $295~$795
  • HiFn HIPP-3
    • Market leader in security, but lost the technology leader to Cavium, Corrent, and Layer N
    • Single chip (Encryption, Classification)
    • 20Gbps IPsec at 10GbE
    • Flow-through SPI4.2, HT, PCI-X
    • Sample Early 2003
    • Merging Appititude, MeterFlow, into Security processor
      • Deep packet analysis after packets are decrypted
    • 10,000 or more SSL handshaking per second
  • Intel
    • 10Gbps On-chip encryption engine with $245 premium
    • SHA, 3DS, AES for IPsec, SSL application
    • General Sample 2Q03
switch fabric
1

1

1

N

N

N

Switch Fabric

Ingress Queue(VOQ)

Crossbar

Egress Queue(OQ)

  • Ingress data when there is no backpressure signal, i.e., queue is not full
  • Each ingress Q requests for cell transfer to Egress port
  • Ingress Request Generation Block generates and send requests to destination ports
  • Grant Generation Block selects one request from ingress ports and grant a transfer
  • Start cell transfer

1

1

1

1

2

2

3

3

N

N

N

N

Grant

Configuration

Uni/Multicast

Arbitration

Flow Control

Request

Scheduler

switch fabric requirement
Switch Fabric Requirement
  • Switching Bandwidth Increase
    • Single stage 40~80G with 16 or 32 ports (Today)
    • Need 320G+, Terabit Scalability required
    • Shared memory : 80Gbps physical limit?
    • Crossbar : High speed implementation, intelligent scheduling
  • Efficient Scalability
    • Multi-stage architecture is inevitable for 10s of Tbps router - bit-slicing method is limited
    • Performance is a factor of flow control, priority schemes, latency and Non-blocking behavior for Unicast/Multicast/ Broadcast traffic
  • Total Cost of Ownership
    • Number of chips, power consumption, Multi shelf interconnect
    • Low Power high-speed Serial Technology
    • N+K redundancy trade-off is driven by system cost
  • Support for multiple services
    • IP, Ethernet, ATM, TDM
switch fabric market update 2003
Switch Fabric Market Update [2003]
  • Market
    • Various analysts projected it to exceed $ 1 billion by 2004, with CAGR 60%
    • Market was too much over forecasted [Gartner Dataquest, 2000]
  • Service Provider Router Market [Synergy Research Group, 2003]
    • But as we enter 2003, telecom continues to be moribund
    • New chassis design launches are important for switch fabric market; switch fabric is one of the first architecture decision point
fabric trend update
Fabric Trend Update
  • More system upgrades than new chassis
    • Cap-ex spending is down
    • Design-win momentum slowing
  • Long-term fabric market is healthy
    • Most OEMs using merchant fabric silicon from in-house ASIC
    • New design will start again on 2004 for new box (06)
      • Backbone product design cycle : 6~7 years, last cycle was ’99
    • Volume and prices continue to decline
  • Slowdown forcing consolidation
    • Alliance are critical for success
  • Optimize cost/performance curve
    • Integrated fabric and Traffic Manager
    • Focus shifted from 10G to 1~2.5G application
  • Trend toward standard interface
    • Standard CSIX/SPI allows flexible choice of NPU
    • CSIX-L1 for OC-48, Many options in the spec
    • NPF-SI addressed 10G applications
switch fabric players
Switch Fabric Players
  • PMC-Sierra
    • Pulled out Fabric and network processing business
    • But the ace up MPC-Sierra’s sleeve could be microprocessor division
  • IBM
    • 10Gbps to 320Gbps, So far leader in fabric market
    • PowerPRS fabric marketed together with PowerNP network Processor
    • Pulled out Fabric market, Sold to AMCC at $47 million
  • Vitesse
    • Leading incumbent vendors
    • GigaStream offers leading integration and power dissipation at OC-48
    • TeraStream has less competitive feature sets and lags in throughput
  • AMCC
    • Through acquisition, AMCC provides total solutions
    • Latest product, nPX5800, scales to 160Gbps  being cancelled
    • PowerPRS will replace 5800
    • Yuni networks, fills the 640Gbps fabric solution
  • Agere
    • Third generation fabric Pi40, first commercial multi-terabit switch fabric
    • Leading product at throughput of 320Gbps and above
    • With 10Gbps NPU, Agere offers all the major components of router designs
  • Startups
    • Mindspeed, ZettaCom, Erlang, Paion
    • Many a startups pulled out
    • PowerX, TransWarp, PetaSwitch, Tau, TeraBlaze, TeraCross
slide40
Competition Map [Switch Fabric]

2.5Tbps

Agere PI40

80G/2.5Tbps

Marvell

  • Prestera FX9130
  • 80G/5Tbps
  • 2003

TeraChip

  • 160G/1.28Tbps
  • 2003
  • 80Gbps(1SF+4QM)
  • 2.5Tbps(32SF+128QM)
  • 2Q02 Sample
  • Agere 0.16um, $1100

1.2Tbps

AMCC nPX8005

TeraCross

PetaSwitch

  • Glimps 1000
  • 80G/1.2Tbps
  • Intel FAB + IXP2800
  • Pisces 40/1.2Tbps
  • 320Gbps(3chip)
  • Sample 1H02
  • UMC 0.15um
  • 320Gbps(8SF+ 2SC+QM)
  • 640Gbps(16SF+ 4SC+QM)
  • 1.2Tbps(32SF+8SC+QM)

IBM EQ+

640Gbps

PMC TTX

Broadcom

ZettaCom

Internet Machine

TAU

  • Gemini
  • 40/640Gbps
  • 3Q02
  • 40/640G
  • 40G(1+4)
  • 320G(8+32)
  • 640G(16+64)
  • 3Q02

320Gbps

  • 80/640G

PMC ETT1 320Gbps

IBM Q64G

160/320Gbps

Mindspeed iScale

40/320Gbps

Erlang

  • 80/640G
  • 40Gbps(1SF+2QM)
  • 320Gbps(8SF+16QM)
  • TSMC 0.18um
  • 160Gbps(4SF+16QM)
  • 320Gbps(8SF+32QM)
  • 1H/02

160Gbps

AMCC Npx5800

20/160Gbps

Vitesse TeraStream

80/160Gbps

  • 20Gbps(1SF+ 1QM)
  • 160Gbps(8SF+ 4QM)
  • 80Gbps(2SF+8QM)
  • 160Gbps(4SF+16QM)
  • 2Q/02, CSIX, 16class
  • $1154+$690

Vitesse GigaStream 20/80Gbps

Agere PI-X

20/80Gbps

80Gbps

IBM 64G

40/80Gbps

  • 40Gbps(1SF+ 4QM)
  • 80Gbps(2SF+ 8QM)
  • 1Q/02, Utopia, 8class
  • $240+$400

Vitesse CS

32/64Gbps

AMCC 5500

20/40Gbps

  • 2Q/01

2001 2002 2003

slide43

변화와 대안

Retrospect

Telco Crash

생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화

변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들

자금시장 변화

Network 기술 시장 대안

Network SOC 의 Re-positioning

network soc roadmap
Retrospect Network SOC Roadmap

Intelligence (Layer)

10G+ NPU

7

EZchip NP-1

Intel

Lexra

Agere

AMCC nP7510

Internet Machines

Silicon Access

Clearwater

Cognigine

Bay Micro

Xelerated Packet Device

EZchip NP-2

ClearSpeed

Multi-Service Platform

2.5G NPU

Next Generation Mobile Infrastructure

6

AMCC nP7250

Vitesse IQ2200

MindSpeed CX27470

BroadCom SB12500

Giga/Terabit Backbone

Intelligent and Secure

Cisco

GSR12416

Juniper

M160

Charlotte

Arenea-1

Lucent

NX64000

Avici

TSR

Pluris

Teraplex

5

8

9

32

56

4

Nexsi 8000

Alteon 180+

Arrowpoint CSS1100

Foundry ServerIron800

F5 BGP-IP

Motorola C-5

IBM Rainier

Vitesse IQ2000

IronCore ASIC

Intel

CustomASIC

WebIC

MMC

1G NPU

Metro Ethernet Broadband

4

Foundry

Big Iron 15000 Fast Iron III

GEP4C04

Intel IXP1200

AMCC nP7120

In-House ASIC

Riverstone RS38000

Foundry Fast Iron II+

Foundry Fast Iron II

120

3

64

96

32

256

24

48

139

144

160

120

Cisco Catalyst 6513

Cisco Catalyst 7606

Intel

SwitchCore CXE-16

Extreme Black Diamond 6816

Cajun P882

40

60

32

Galileo GalNet-3

Intel

BroadCom

Acute

Allayer AL1032

Extreme Black Diamond 6808

Extreme Alpine 3808 Summit7i

Riverstone RS8600/ RS16000

320G SF

640G SF

64G SF

2

Agere PI40X/C

PMC-sierra TTX

IBM PRS-EQ

Vitesse VSC882

IBM PRS64G

MindSpeed CX27302

Paion GES0032

AMCC nP8000

Velio VC2002

Paion MOSAIC

PMC-sierra ETT1

AMCC nP5800

Power X SX-16

ZettaCom ZEST-IXS

32

64

128

256

512

8

16

4

Bandwidth (Gbps)

2001.10.17 전략기술개발사업 기술기획

telecom collapse
Telecom Collapse
  • Largest Network equipment buyers
  • Capital spending cut from $116B(00) to $46B(02) :60% drop
  • Telco revenue $197B for voice, $63B for data [2001 US]
  • Carriers spend 15% of revenues on equipment
  • Cut off 500,000 jobs in two years
  • 61 service provider bankruptcies
  • 11 of the top 25 money losing firms in 2001 were telecom
    • Total $107B losses
    • $470B of debt $
  • Not going to return to the late 1990s in a near-term recovery
  • New business strategies are required
impact
Impact
  • Effects on Vendor
    • DSL, wireless, cable vendors devastated – customers collapsed
    • Components awful – no new design wins
    • Optical very bad – revenues off 80%
    • Core routing bad – revenues off 50%
  • Effects on Financial Market
    • 60,000 jobs lost in investment banking since 1/2001 - no acquisitions or IPOs
    • 2,500 companies were acquired or went public in the 1996-2000 boom
    • Over 10,000 venture-backed private companies now
    • At least 7,500 (75% or more) will run out of money in 2002-2005
slide48
Intel

Agere

AMCC

생태계의 변화

Motorola

EZchip

Silicon Access

Wintegra

ZettaCom

Internet Machines

Marvell

Broadcom

Vitesse

Zarlink

Power X

alternative
Alternative
  • Find the bottom
  • Look for a safe niche
  • Hibernate and wait for an upturn
  • Seek government intervention
  • Explore non-US opportunities
  • Proper market & technology
    • Vendors/investors forced to abandon innovative next-generation products
    • Telco spend money to save money, not for new services
    • Go after enterprise market instead?
    • What about consumer/residential market?
alternative technology
Alternative Technology ..
  • Still Most Promising
    • Security (SSL/VPNs, firewalls, IDS, identity management, attack mitigation)
    • Wireless (WLANs, roaming, fixed broadband)
    • Storage networks (NAS, SANs migration to Storage networks over IP)
  • Still Must
    • Switching (metro, more VPN “flavors”)
    • Sell to technologically-backward incumbents
    • New SONET and MSPP , softswitches
  • Lagging
    • VoIP (SIP, ENUM, virtual PBX services)
    • Transport (10 Gig Ethernet)
    • Optical (40 Gig SONET/SDH, optical transmission, GMPLS)
example fusion of home network and entertainment cluster
Example: Fusion of Home Network and Entertainment Cluster
  • With broadband growth starting to slow, Telco’s are serious about investigating the smart home network segment for value added broadband services -- Residential gateway Integrates cable modem/router/wireless access point
    • Home networking has become a bigger focus of the CE industry
    • Products are emerging to enable connectivity between the home data network and the entertainment cluster at reasonable price point
    • The next wave of interconnectedness between devices will not for basic data/broadband sharing, but instead for the fusion of the PC and entertainment worlds in the form of media center
  • Silicon vendors rush
    • Standard Activity : 802.15
    • Microsoft – the biggest splash with the media center edition of XP
    • Intel – media center reference design and the push to get CE vendors to create a new product category around the media center
    • Motorola - connected home
example home networking
Example: Home Networking

Disk Array

(Server)

Home Media Server

EPON(FTTH)

Super VDSL

Metro Ethernet

CPU

Optional IPSec SA and SSL Content memory

UWB

WiFi

1394

UWB

IEEE1394

802.11

PCI

Billing

Rate-

limiting

EPON

MAC

NPU

Firewall

Security

Switching

FE

PHY

802.11 AP

8 x FE

System memory

example wireless security
802.11 AP

63 m

Example: Wireless+Security
  • QoS with guaranteed SLA, Bandwidth rate limiting
    • Application-based flow classification for VoIP and streaming media
    • AP & L3/L4 Load Balancing
  • Wireless Mobility Security
    • Encryption for WEP, TKIP and AES, Kerberos Security
    • VPN(L2TP/IPSec)
    • Wireless Management
  • Serial and Power over Ethernet
example wireless mobile coexistence
InternetExample: Wireless/Mobile Coexistence

HLR/VLR

IWF

PSTN

Radio Access Network

Voice Network

E1/T1

MSC: Mobile Switching Center

BTS 1

AAA

E1/T1

HA

OAM

ATM/IP

Data Network

E1/T1

BSC

Base Station Controller

Fast Ethernet

Data Network

BTS n

PDSN

Packet Data Serving Node

Roaming / Handoff

Wireless LAN

802.11 AP

Metro Ethernet Switch

Wireless Switch

repositioning ethernet switch processor
Repositioning: Ethernet Switch Processor
  • Market
    • GbE switch silicon revenue : $348 million in 2002, $540 million 2004, and $1.063 billion in 2007, 25% CAGR, [IDC, March 2003]
    • Broadcom and Marvell owned 90 percent of the market in 2002, the split was about 60-40, Mostly Fast Ethernet market
    • Sweet-spot : 24/16/8 port
    • Until now, GbE switches were considered to be too expensive for all but enterprise applications. However, GbE-enabled laptops, PCs and network interface cards (NICs) are driving the cost of GbE to all-time lows. This has accelerated the demand for higher bandwidth GbE switch performance across all segments of the market, further increasing volumes and reducing cost.
  • Player
    • Broadcom – announced 24 port and 16 port GbE switch on Sep. 2003, and provides 4-, 5-, and 8-port GbE switch with integrated PHY, General sampling Oct. 2003
    • Marvell – Announced 24 port GbE switch, Prestera-EX242, on Feb., Integrated SERDES with 24 port GbE on Apr. 2003,
    • Vitesse – announced Stapleford(VSC7303) – 24 port GbE switch chip, doing Layer 4 processing on April. 2003, Announced Heathrow-II, 16 port GbE on 2002 Spring
    • Others : Zarlink, Realtek, ADMtek, SwitchCore, Via, Paion
  • Issues
    • Integration up to Layer 3, Filtering. SERDES and PHY consideration in future
    • Cost : < $6~8 / GbE port
    • Power : < 0.2 ~0.25 watt/ GbE port
    • Foundry : 0.13um CMOS process
slide58
Competition Map [Ethernet Switch Processor]

40/160Gbps

TeraStream

24GE

VSC7303

(Stapleford)

20/80Gbps

16GE

GigaStream

VSC7301

(Heathrow-II)

VITESSE

CrossStream

24GE+

SERDES

M&A(Sitera)

M&A(Exbit)

Drop(NPU)

80G~5Tbps

24GE

Prestera EX241

$600

Prestera EX242

$200+

4G+48FE

MARVELL

40~640Gbps

24GE

M&A(Galileo)

13GE

BCM5345

0.13um

BROADCOM

2G+24FE

BCM5633

M&A(Allayer, SiByte)

BCM5615

2002 2003

slide61

SoC 산업의 성공적인미래

Global Trend

중국 시장의 부상

Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry

제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning

Trend 읽기 – 문화

기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당

교육적인 측면에서

global trend
Global Trend
  • FTA 로 인한 경제 글로벌화 가속
    • IT 버블 붕괴, 인력구조조정
    • 일본- 통합화, 미주/유럽-공동개발 Alliance 활발
  • Foundry 산업
    • 12” Fab. 건설비용 25억불, AMD+UMC, STMicro+Philips 합작 추진
    • Infineon  SMIC 투자
  • 차세대표준주도권
    • Core Open Standard화 -ARM, MIPS, SH, TI, StarCore, Trimedia
  • 중화권 급부상
    • 반도체 시장 아시아 비중 증가 (2002년 40%)
    • 아시아 시장의 重要성 대두 - “왜 우리가 한국 등 아시아에 Behind 되고 있는가?”“연방정부가 나서야 한다.” [NGN, Broadband session, 2002]
    • 중국 2005 275억(세계시장의 14%), 미/일본-비중감소
    • 대만 : Foundry-> SoC로 사업확대, Fabless Design House (> 1억$ ) 10개이상
    • 중국 : Foundry 본격진출, 대만에서  중국으로 Foundry 위주로 산업 개편
    • 미국/한국/일본등 - 위기로 대두
network eco system
Network EcoSystem
  • 네트워크 생태계의 건강의 중요성 –Otherwise, arteriosclerosis
    • BCN (Broadband Convergence Network) 성공적 로드맵
    • 서비스의 발전, 표준화, 시스템벤더, SoC 의 구현
    • TCO 최적화를 위한 Embedded Software 및 Foundry 발전의 연계
    • SoC 발전을 위한 테스트베드 시스템의 투자

Bandwidth Service, Culture Creation

eBay

AOL

Yahoo

Daum

NHN

KT

MCI

China Telecom

Revenue Generation, Value Creation, Recovery

Comcast

Nortel

CISCO

Redback

End-to-End intelligence, TCO Minimization

Huawei

Vitesse

AMCC

Broadcom

Intel

Silicon cycle out-sourcing, End to End Solution, Market Window

PMC

Agere

Marvell

Motorola

foundry
Foundry
  • Fabrication
    • Downturn – outsourcing strategy from foundry
    • China semiconductor market $16B (02), $31B(06) [Gartner Dataquest]
    • Big 3 – TSMC, UMC, … > $8.4B, 90% total
    • Prospect Foundry sales $25B (07) [Scottsdale IC insights]
  • TSMC
    • $4.6B (02), 28% , 40% market share
    • $2.57B (10th, 1H03) cf. Intel $12.21B (1st, 1H03)
    • 0.18um + 0.18um > 85 % sales
    • Altera, ATI, Motorola, nVidia, Broadcom, TI, Via
  • UMC
    • Fab alliance with AMD
    • Infineon $3.6B partnership
  • IBM
    • Next serious player
    • 6.1% market share, became Rank 4th 3rd, (02)
    • AMD, nVidia, Xilinx, Qualcomm, Broadcom
  • SMIC
    • Cost advantage
    • 300 mm wafer at 0.11um, investment by Infineon
    • Chartered partnership for < 90ns
    • Broadcom, Elpida, Fujitsu, Infineon, Toshiba
slide66
중국
  • 선진국의 돈과 새로운 에너지가 모이는 곳
  • 상해
    • 면적 6000km^2, 1700만
    • 90.4 포동개발 시작, 연평균 20% 
    • 전체 경제 성장율 12%
  • 황하와 천안문사태
  • 연안도시 상해 중점개발, 효과를 몸통(장강) 통해 사천성 (꼬리) 등 내륙까지 미치게 한다는 경제발전 전략
  • 개인적인 견해
    • 미국의 주적으로 부상
    • 10년전 일본에 의한 경제헤게모니로 인한 미국 자존심의 상처는, 10여년후 중국에게서 올 수도
    • 엔지니어로 계속살아 남으려면 중국어를 해야할지도
slide67
북경지역

텐진

내륙지역

상하이 (포동)

반도체, IT

저장성

홍콩

education
Education
  • Demand Creation
    • Story, Contents
    • Digital Life – Emotion,Temptation
    • Culture 에 대한 이해
  • Feature vs. Benefit
    • TCP (Target Customer Profile) - 마켓의 소리듣기
    • TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)
  • Engineering Education
    • 안목과 소양
      • 문화와 역사, 인류학
      • 기술정책, 산업전략, 상품화 능력
    • 기술적 능력
      • TechnologyLeadership
      • Technical Marketing
      • 기술의 경쟁적 Positioning
    • 제품화 Mind의 기술개발
      • Product Planning
      • 고객을 공동의 개발자로 생각하라 [시장과 성당 (cathedral and bazaar) ]
slide70
맺음말 - 변화와 위험

인생에서 가장 큰 위험은 위험을 감수하지 않는 것이다.

“So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself– nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”

Saturday, March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt

At the time, he was speaking of the crisis that was facing the nation—the “Great Depression.” Today, we reflect on his word, in light of the crisis that now confronts this nation.

JoonSeo@paion.com

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