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Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers

Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers 22 nd April 2009 David Strahan odac@btconnect.com. Crisis? What crisis?. Source: Argus Media. Why they call it peak oil. Source: ASPO. Why oil peaks. United States. Source: IHS Energy.

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Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers

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  1. www.odac-info.org Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers 22nd April 2009 David Strahan odac@btconnect.com

  2. www.odac-info.org Crisis? What crisis? Source: Argus Media

  3. www.odac-info.org Why they call it peak oil Source: ASPO

  4. www.odac-info.org Why oil peaks United States Source: IHS Energy

  5. www.odac-info.org When will it happen? Kenneth Deffeyes 2005 Colin Campbell 2010 Chris Skrebowski 2011 Energyfiles 2016 PFC Energy 2020 IEA 2030+ CERA 2030+ United States 2037

  6. www.odac-info.org Why it matters • Oil supplies 95% transport energy • Agriculture critically dependent on oil and gas: producing 1 calorie of food requires 10 calories of fossil energy. • Oil and gas provide all petrochemicals and lubricants • Oil price spikes cause recessions

  7. www.odac-info.org Oil producers (98)

  8. www.odac-info.org Post peak oil producers (64)

  9. www.odac-info.org Couldn’t we find some more? Source: IHS Energy; Groppe, Long & Littell

  10. www.odac-info.org Are we there yet? Source: IEA, Argus Media

  11. www.odac-info.org Serial oil price spikes and slumps

  12. www.odac-info.org Oil drives energy prices Source: John Hall Associates

  13. www.odac-info.org Biofuels inadequate • ‘1st generation’: food crops In Europe/US, 5% road fuel = 20% cropland (IEA) • ‘2nd generation’: woody biomass World transport fuel demand = land area of China (Strahan)

  14. www.odac-info.org Hydrogen Source: BMW

  15. lastoilshock.com Fuel cells vs batteries BEV: 69% efficient WTW FCV: 24% efficient WTW UK BEV fleet means +16% electricity UK FCV fleet means +34% electricity Sources: WWF and E4Tech

  16. lastoilshock.com OECD grid mix by fuel Source: John Hall Associates

  17. lastoilshock.com HVDC-System 100% renewables via ‘Supergrid’ Source: Dr Gregor Czisch, University of Kassel

  18. www.odac-info.org Small vehicles – electrification

  19. www.odac-info.org Large vehicles – biogas Biomethane could provide 16% UK transport fuel (NSCA, 2006) Public transport consumes <5% Sources: NSCA, DfT

  20. www.odac-info.org Lille: biogas in action

  21. www.odac-info.org Biomethane benefits • Carbon reductions 75% - 200% • Energy security • Low duty (10p/L v 50p/L diesel) • Waste strategy • Digestate/fertilizer • Flexibility – bi-fuel vehicles • Air quality/noise

  22. lastoilshock.com Mass aviation under threat Source: New Scientist

  23. lastoilshock.com “This book should be compulsory reading in government in this and every other oil importing country.” Richard Hardman CBE, former head of E&P, Amerada Hess “…a really good and informative read on a topic that affects us all.”Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell “This important and easily-read book is the first I've seen which presents the vital technical data accurately and intelligibly.”Jeremy Gilbert, former Chief PetroleumEngineer, BP “A well written exposition of the peak oil case.”Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, FinancialTimes

  24. www.odac-info.org Peak oil and transport planning Transport Planning Society Inst. Of Chartered Engineers 22nd April 2009 David Strahan odac@btconnect.com

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