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Energy ConsciousnessTaking a Systems Approach to Energy Dr. Rachel Leslie Resilience Research Portfolio Manager Defence Science and Technology Laboratory UK Ministry of Defence
Context • Major UK effort on Operational Energy • Research has led; informing the policy agenda • Interpreting the strategic environment • Understanding implications for the military context • Advising policy options • Earlier brief (NATO CD&E Nov 2012) • Described UK energy challenge, policy response and research programme objectives
Cost An increase of 1p per litre of fuel adds ~£13M to equipment energy bill Delivery to front line user The cost of fuel at point of use must include transport costs, supply fleet, personnel and protection Operational effectiveness Decreasing fuel use impacts on ability to deliver expeditionary capability reduce logistics ‘tail’ = deeper, further, quicker Drivers for MOD to use less energy
Resilience – an integrated programme UK Objective: “Ensure that MoD remains able to deliver the required effect, against increasingly constraining external requirements and expectations over which MoD has limited or no control” Energy Security Critical & Strategic Resources Decision Making Resilience to Climate Change Emission Reduction
Resilient Systems • Understanding Future Energy vulnerability and building Energy “Resilience” • Resilience to External Impact: • Climate Impact / Resource & Commodity prices / Legislation • Changing energy “Behaviours” • Preserving freedom of manoeuvre and Freedom of Action • Preparing for possible restrictions on vehicles, maritime platforms and military aircraft
Understanding the future environment • Availability issues won’t prevent us conducting military operations • Demand for equipment energy is likely to continue increasing • We can’t predict what future energy technologies and fuels will be
Impact & Implications • Consumption Data and trends show... • 14% reduction in fuel usage since 2010 • 56% increase in fuel cost since 2010 • We cannot afford to be complacent • Relying on “Savings” & “Operational Drawdown” delivers artificial reductions • What are the true implications of “passive” approaches to meeting energy reduction targets? • Behavioural Change? • A cost effective way of reducing consumption
Energy Efficiency versus Energy Effectiveness? • How should we track our Energy Usage to change Behaviours? • Col. Paul Roege (US Army) proposed “Energy Effectiveness” • a more meaningful measure of how the military use energy • UK is looking at Energy Capability Metrics • How do we measure the amount of capability, or military effect, that can be delivered for each unit of energy?
Evolving UK Energy Policy Aims: • To reduce the reliance of the Armed Forces on fossil fuel by 18% by 2020 • A challenging target • New equipment is more power hungry than that it replaces • To treat energy as a “Capability” • A change in mindset from “Energy as a commodity” • Challenge: How should UK MOD consider energy in its decision-making processes?
Strategic Energy: A systems approach • How to understand energy flow at different levels • MOD, Front Line Command, Capability, Equipment, System • How to understand where to focus effort • Where is technology the answer? • But where is behaviour change better? • What outputs are being delivered when energy is consumed?
Strategic energy • Energy Capability Audit • A key decision-making tool • How do we know if we have enough, too much or too little of “energy capability”? • Strategic Balance of Energy: • How do we optimise our capability mix against energy rather than cost? • Applying energy to operational scenarios: • How could we deliver the same effect with different force mixes? • What would be the different energy (and energy capability) requirements?
Technical Programme across the Commands • Air • Sustainable Military Aviation Research Technology Initiative (SMARTI) • Evaluating low drag technologies • Analysing operational procedures and behaviours • Land • Future energy options for Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) • Maritime • Energy harvesting • e.g. heat pumps to provide domestic hot water • Using data better to make energy informed decisions
Summary (1) • Energy research in UK MOD looks at: • Defence’s vulnerability to a lack of energy supply • Increasing energy costs • Alternative energy and energy reduction technologies • Behavioural focused mitigation options • To ensure that we can be resilient in the future
Summary (2) • Resilience research supports a reduction of energy demand at: • The equipment level • The operational level across all Front Line Commands, including in theatre • The strategic level, supporting policymakers and finance staff in MOD HQ