The NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program

1. The NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program Don Anderson NASA Headquarters OCRT Meeting Goat Island April 11, 2006

2. 2011 Overarching Vision “… a new approach is needed for climate model development. It is not practical for a single group to have expertise in all the components of a global model, as the models are becoming more complex and include more physical and biological processes. Models for long-term climate must extend from the deep ocean to the upper atmosphere, and components of the global system that were once treated as specified boundary conditions or neglected altogether must now be simulated and allowed to interact with other parts of the model. …” GSFC Earth-Sun Exploration Division 2006 Strategic Plan

3. 2011 Vision - Science Drivers • Coupled Earth System models and advanced data assimilation systems • System components fully interactive: coupled ocean, atmosphere, land, sea-ice, chemistry, biosphere executing multiple ‘what if’ scenarios • Models easily reconfigured for short-term prediction (weather & extreme events) to seasonal tolong-term climate, global and regional • Contributions to climate model development from diverse expert groups; multiple discipline (chemistry, pollution transport, land, sea-ice, atmosphere…) collaboration • Implementation of 4D Variational data assimilation system with new data types • Open standards • Increased model & analysis fidelity • Enhanced resolution (horizontal, vertical, temporal, spectral) • Estimates of Uncertainty/reliability • large ensembles (perturbed initial conditions, multi-Center initial states, multi-Center models) • Re-emphasis of data (satellite and in-situ observations for validation and simulation; preparation for new missions) • Greatly enhanced validation efforts with rapid access to data and model output from multiple Centers • Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) • Enhanced tools for testing new methods at reduced effort and cost • Combinatorial problem in test and evaluation (many components, many versions requiring “system-level” validation)

4. MAP Modeling Environment Development Path “The Holy Grail” Fully Interactive Earth System Model Multi-component Models Component Models Process Models Knights of the NASA Earth Science Community

5. Program or Branch #1 Program or Branch #2 Program or Branch #3 Program or Branch #N Modeling 1 Modeling 2 Modeling 3 Modeling N MAP NRA & the MAP Modeling Environment(ME) MAP Modeling Environment Crosscutting Themes Focus Areas Model, Analysis, Prediction Program / Multi-investigator proposals ESMF Core Integration Team … External NRA Proposals GISS Model E CMAI GMI ECCO II

6. MAP grant example: Schematic of the Carbon Data Assimilation SystemSome ‘Element’ partners: JPL, Harvard, MIT, GISS, CSI, WHOI, Ames, MSFC [DOE, NSF, NOAA,NASA]=> ESMF

7. COLUMN PHYSICS DYNAMICS MOIST RADIATION DYNAMICS TURB SOLAR FVCORE GWD IR SURFACE SURFACE CHEM LAKE LAND ICE (Ts,Fi...) CATCH (Ts,Fi...) OCEAN SKIN VEGDYN GEOS-5 GCM STRUCTURE HISTORY CAP COUPLED ODAS Data AGCM Data OGCM AGCM OGCM CICE Poseidon MOM4 MITogcm Poseidon OBIO

8. ESS Planned Hurricane Field Campaign: NAMMA-06 • Out of Africa: African Easterly Waves are the progenitors of many late-season, strong category hurricanes that strike the U.S. • Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde • Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci • Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD • NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives • Platforms to include DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars African SAL: Impact on tropical cyclogenesis - hypothesize to be a hurricane suppressant, in an ocean marginally suitable for hurricane generation; examine SAL impact on microphyiscs, thermodynamic instability, shear,airmass dessication

9. MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 1. GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/DAS WRF/MODEL GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/MODEL DATA NODES COMPUTING NODES EXPERIMENT: Embed WRF w/ GEOS5 NASA Ames Mt. View, California NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS MSFC OUTPUT PORTALS SPoRT Facility NASA Marshall Huntsville, Alabama All model Outputs SIVO/NCCS Analysis Visualization Prepare Map & Movies & Web Access Ocean Color Group WRF EXTERNAL MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS Satellite Data Graphics, Movies, Satellite Data Other Model Output SCIENCE ANALYSIS

10. GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 2. DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING NODES EXPERIMENT: Configure GEOS5 w/ Different Ocean Models INTEL Corp Portland, Oregon NASA Ames Mt. View, California Northrop Grumman McLean, Virginia NASA Goddard Greenbelt, Maryland NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS Conventional Network (600 Mb/s) National Lambda Rail (10 - 40 Gb/s) NCCS/NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS DAAC DATA PORTALS SCIENCE ANALYSIS EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS GFDL/NCDC MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS Model to model & model to data validation / comparisons

11. ESMF Re-configurable models turn on/off components, on/off outputs user settable via web service* Cross-site workflow (data/jobs) Remotely initiated via web schedule, monitor, manage with greater autonomy across multi-site cyber-infrastructure Development Environment Experimentation Environment Summary of Capabilities Configure model, set up work flow all remotely initiated via Web - ultimately SOA Grey denotes Option turned off Visualization & Analysis Serversproviding on-demand support Substantial compute resources connected by high-speed networks load-balanced scheduled vs. queued transparent site selection Robust and non-intrusive infrastructure support (security working across domains, network performance QOS,…)

12. Integrating Earth System Modeling and Observations Coupled Full-Earth Modeling and Data Assimilation System for Earth-Sun Science 2006 NASA MAP Modeling Environment 2005 Project Hurricane GEOS-5 JCSDA/GSI fvGCM (GEOS4) Project Columbia

13. Don’s Vision