the Brink of Destruction

1. the Brink of Destruction Nearest the US and USSR came to Nuclear Holocaust

2. Communists’ “Scientifically” Predetermined Victory • Communists really believed that Communism would eventually win over Capitalism. It was a predetermined necessity Economic Determinism Scientific Materialism

3. Leonid Brezhnev - General Secretary 1964 to 1982. • Brezhnev, 1971: We communists have to string along with the capitalists for a while. We need their credits, their agriculture, and their technology. But we are going to continue massive military programs and by the middle 1980s we will be in a position to return to a much more aggressive foreign policy designed to gain the upper hand in our relationship with the West. 

4. Ronald Reagan is Elected President of the USA— 1981 • A New American approach to dealing with the Soviet Union: • Confrontation • Competition • No Coexistence or Détente

5. Reagan puts pressure on the soviets • Personal, hand-written letter to Brezhnev, April 22, 1981: I believe true justice would be done if he (Scharansky) were released (from Soviet prison) and allowed to join her (his wife in Israel. While on the subject may I also enter a plea on behalf of the two familys [sic] who have been living … in our embassy in Moscow for three years. The ____ family and the ____ family are Pentecostal Christians who feared possible persecution because of their religion.

6. French Come to US’s Aid • The French told Vice President Bush that they had a mole. • 53-year-old Col. Vladimir Vetrov of the scientific and technical (S&T) division – Directorate “T” - of the K.G.B.’s First Chief Directorate • His code name was “Farewell”

7. Operation RYAN(Raketno-YadernoyeNapadlenie)Nuclear Missile Attack • From the CIA: The 1981 KGB assessment was more of a long-range forecast than a storm warning, but the Politburo issued what amounted to a full-scale hurricane alert. Andropov and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev made a joint appearance in May 1981 before a closed session of KGB officers. Its purpose: to monitor indications and provide early warning of US war preparations. • Brezhnev took the podium first and briefed the assembled intelligence officers on his concerns about US policy under the new administration in Washington. Andropov then asserted bluntly that the United States was making preparations for a surprise nuclear attack on the USSR. The KGB and the GRU, he declared, would join forces to mount a new intelligence collection effort codenamed RYAN.

8. Franco-American Cooperation • French President Francois Mitterrand told President Reagan and Secretary of State Alexander Haig that Vetrov had access to Soviet scientific and technical division operational details concerning Soviet acquisition activities.

9.  Brilliant Plan!! • Reagan informed the CIA Chief Bill Casey. • Casey consulted with Gus Weiss, an economist who in early 1974 wrote a report on Soviet advances in technology through purchasing and copying. • He had told President Nixon to restrict the export of advanced technology and computers to the Soviets. • However Weiss then suggested that the US give the Soviets what they want. Let them steal software and computer chips that would pass their quality tests but would then fail in operation.

10. Soviets Need the Cash • The CIA entered into a disinformation program. • They sabotaged plans for secret space defense systems. • The Soviets wasted time and millions of dollars looking to copy American technology.

11. Soviets Need the Cash • The Soviets also sought computer control systems to automate a new trans-Siberian gas pipeline to supply western Europe. • Americans refused to sell them the plans, so the K.G.B. sent a covert agent to Canada to steal the software. • The Americans were tipped off by Farewell. • The CIA put a "Trojan Horse" into the pirated product.

12. Reagan gets the Saudis’ to lower Oil Prices • Reagan sells the Saudis AWAC spy planes. • This upset many Jewish Americans and Israelis • But the Saudis lowered energy prices: • Western Europe did not need the Soviet gas line. • Brought energy costs down in the U.S. • Helped to dry up much of the necessary cash flow to the Soviet treasury. • Reagan also promised to protect the Saudis from any Iraqi or Iranian attacks. (See Desert Shield & then Desert Storm)

13. Reagan Wrote: Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia came in with Sen. (Howard) Baker. Sen. (John) Glenn is influencing many Sens. Against the AWACS’s deal on proposition that we should have joint crew operation if they are sold. This may be our chance Prince Bandar believes Prince Fahd may agree to this. We in return would give them enhanced planes with high level equipment.

14. Pope John Paul II • Meanwhile, May 1982, President Reagan signed the National Security Decision Directive (NSDD 32). • The U.S. provided covert action as well as economic and diplomatic pressure designed to “neutralize efforts of the USSR” to maintain its hold on Eastern Europe.

15. The U.S. provided $50 million of aid to the Solidarity movement in Poland. • After both had survived assassination attempts, Reagan’s aid at their first meeting when referring to the situation in Eastern Europe: Look at the evil forces that were put in our way and how Providence intervened. • The Pope agreed.

16. National Security Council staffer Thomas C. Reed: The pipeline software that was to run the pumps, turbines and valves was programmed to go haywire…to reset pump speeds and valve settings to produce pressures far beyond those acceptable to the pipeline joints and welds. The result was the most monumental non-nuclear explosion and fire ever seen from space.

17. Major Explosion In SIBERIA • In June 1982 NORAD (North American Air Defense) monitors feared a nuclear detonation • But the satellites that would have picked up its electromagnetic pulse were silent. • Mystified many in the White House. • Gus Weiss came down the hall to tell his fellow NSC staffers to relax. • It took him another twenty years to tell why.

18. Fallout • The thoroughly embarrassed K.G.B. would never publicly complain about being “stung” by spurious technology that had been planted by the CIA. • Moreover, ALL the software the Soviets had taken from American companies became suspect. • The explosion stopped the work of thousands of apprehensive Soviet scientists. • Vladimir Vetrov (Farewell) was eventually caught and executed in 1983.

19. Nuclear Freeze • Major liberal push for a nuclear freeze in the US. • Even Catholic bishops were pushing for a freeze. • March 7, 1983— President Reagan met in the White House with a group of conservative leaders and pro-defense elected officials on the subject of the nuclear freeze. • Reagan told them that he was strongly opposed to the nuclear freeze • The freeze was strongly supported by the Soviet Union and liberals in Congress. • It would prevent the deployment of U.S. cruise and Pershing II Missiles in Europe. • They asked Reagan to publicly promote the Administration’s position

20. The USSR was an “Evil Empire” • The following day, Reagan spoke at the National Association of Evangelicals in Orlando, Florida. • Reagan added words to his prepared speech. • Excited oppressed opposition in the Soviet Bloc. • Shocked liberal adversaries in America. • American media went ballistic. • Reagan called the Soviet Union and Communism, "the focus of evil in the modern world."

21. Reagan: So, I urge you to speak out against those who would place the United States in a position of military and moral inferiority. You know, I've always believed that old Screwtape reserved his best efforts for those of you in the church. So, in your discussions of the nuclear freeze proposals, I urge you to beware the temptation of pride -- the temptation of blithely declaring yourselves above it all and label both sides equally at fault, to ignore the facts of history and the aggressive impulses of an evil empire, to simply call the arms race a giant misunderstanding and thereby remove yourself from the struggle between right and wrong and good and evil.

22. Reagan told the world: This Soviet intelligence collection facility less than 100 miles from our coast is the largest of its kind in the world. The acres and acres of antenna fields and intelligence monitors are targeted on key U.S. military installations and sensitive activities. The installation, in Lourdes, Cuba, is manned by 1,500 Soviet technicians, and the satellite ground station allows instant communications with Moscow. This 28-square mile facility has grown by more than 60 percent in size and capability during the past decade.

23. He Continued: As the Soviets have increased their military power, they have been emboldened to extend that power. They are spreading their military influence in ways that can directly challenge our vital interests and those of our allies. The following aerial photographs, most of them secret until now, illustrate this point in a crucial area very close to home - Central America and the Caribbean Basin. They are not dramatic photographs but I think they help give you a better understanding of what I'm talking about.

24. STAR WARS! • On March 23, 1983 – Reagan made his famous “Star Wars Speech.” • Told the world of his intent to build a space-based laser missile defense system against incoming Soviet ICBMs.

25. Star wars • The media mocked him • Called the plan “Star Wars” after the movie. • Secretary Andropov called it “insane” and “a bid to disarm the Soviet Union.” • American media agreed • After the Siberian Explosion and the (later) intercepting of Soviet KAL 007 transmission, the Soviets thought Reagan already had the technology.

26. Nervous Soviets!! • The Soviets nearly panicked. • They knew their military research and development was at least 15 years behind the U.S. • Did the U.S. have capabilities greater than thought to exist? • Increased fear of a U.S. Nuclear-first strike. • The U.S. could then shoot down any Soviet response. • NSA and its SIGINT allies intercepted a dramatic increase in the volume and urgency of Warsaw Pact communications. • The Soviet paranoia reached its peak with the start of Operation Abel Archer 83 military simulations

27. Rash action by the soviets? • On September 1, 1983, a Soviet Su-15 interceptor fired two air-to-air missiles at a Korean Airlines Boeing 747 airliner, Flight 007. • They destroyed the plane and killed all 269 people on board. • The Soviets had been tracking the aircraft for more than an hour, as it had entered and left Soviet airspace over the Kamchatka Peninsula. • The order to shoot down the airliner was given by a four-star Soviet general on the ground, as it was about to leave Soviet airspace for the second time after flying over Sakhalin Island.

28. Korean Airlines Flight 007 (ironic?) It was probably downed in international airspace.

29. “An Act of barbarism” • The Americans and Japanese intercepts Soviet communications • The White House learned about the attack within a few hours • Secretary George Shultz denounced the Soviet attack as deliberate mass murder. • President Reagan labeled it "an act of barbarism, born of a society which wantonly disregards individual rights and the value of human life and seeks constantly to expand and dominate other nations.”

30. Air Force intelligence dissented from the rush to judgment at the time. • Eventually U.S. intelligence reached a consensus that the Soviets probably did not know they were attacking a civilian airliner. Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Agency

31. U.S. works to punish the U.S.S.R. • The charge against the Soviets should have been something like criminally negligent manslaughter, not premeditated murder. • Nevertheless, the official U.S. position never deviated from the initial assessment. • The Americans used the incident to start a determined campaign to denounce the Soviets in the United Nations. • The Americans pushed for a worldwide effort to punish the Soviet Union through commercial boycotts, lawsuits, and denial of landing rights for their airline, Aeroflot. • These efforts focused on indicting the Soviet system and the top leadership as being ultimately responsible.

32. DENIAL! • Moscow did not even acknowledge the incident until September 6. • Delayed an official explanation for three more days. • Initially claimed it had crashed. • On 9 September, Marshal Nikolai Ogarkovheld a live press conference that ran for two hours.

33. “It’s America's fault” • The Soviets claimed they had acted appropriately. • Ogarkov: • The Soviet regional air defense unit had identified KAL 007 as a U.S. intelligence platform, an RC-135 a type that performed intelligence operations along a similar fight path. • Regardless of what it was, the aircraft was undeniably on a U.S. or joint U.S.-Japanese intelligence mission. • The local air defense commander had made the correct decision. • The real blame for the tragedy, he insisted, lay with the United States, not the USSR!

34. The Politburo • A classified memorandum submitted to the Politburo by the Defense Ministry and the KGB shows that the Soviet leadership held much the same view in private.

35. The Politburo • Released in 1992, the memorandum concluded: We are dealing with a major, dual-purpose political provocation carefully organized by the US special services. The first purpose was to use the incursion of the intruder aircraft into Soviet airspace to create a favorable situation for the gathering of defense data on our air defense system in the Far East, involving the most diverse systems including the Ferret satellite. Second, they envisaged, if this flight were terminated by us, [the US would use] that fact to mount a global anti-Soviet campaign to discredit the Soviet Union.

36. General Secretary Yuri Andropov: • Bitterly attacked the U.S. in a willing media • Claimed that an "outrageous military psychosis" had possessed the American Administration. • Asserted that "the Reagan administration, in its imperial ambitions, goes so far that one begins to doubt whether Washington has any brakes at all preventing it from crossing the point at which any sober-minded person must stop."

37. Yuri Andropov on KAL-007: The sophisticated provocation, organized by the US special services and using a South Korean airplane, is an example of extreme adventurism in policy. We have given the factual aspect of this action a detailed and authentic elucidation. The guilt of its organizers--no matter how they twist and turn or how many false stories they put out--have been proved. The Soviet leadership has expressed regret in connection with the loss of human lives that was the result of this unprecedented act of criminal sabotage. It is on the conscience of those who would like to arrogate to themselves the right to disregard the sovereignty of states and the inviolability of their borders, who conceived of and carried out this provocation, who literally the next day hurried to push through Congress colossal military appropriations and now are rubbing their hands in satisfaction.

38. As reported in Pravda and Izvestiya, 29 September 1983: • The KAL 007 incident was not only a tragedy; it also touched off a dangerous episode in US-Soviet relations, which already had been exacerbated by the war scare. • As Dobrynin put it, both sides "went slightly crazy." • For Washington, the incident seemed to express all that was wrong with the Soviet system and to vindicate the administration's critique of the Soviet system. • For Moscow, the episode seemed to encapsulate and reinforce the Soviets' worst case assumptions about US policy for several reasons:

39. Global Media battle • President Reagan quickly used the attack to castigate the entire Soviet Communist system. • Andropov was forced to defend the Soviet government and the Soviet attack on KAL 007.

40. The U.S. Piled On • The U.S. continued to condemn the U.S.S.R. at the UN and in media outlets around the world. • The U.S. worked to embarrass and isolate the U.S.S.R. in the international community. • The Soviets saw the campaign as a calculated anti-Soviet plot.

41. Reagan takes advantage of The Soviet mishap • President Reagan used the KAL 007 shoot down to persuade Congress to support his requests for increased defense spending and the new MX missile. • The Russians were always paranoid, looking for conspiracy theories.

42. The crisis guaranteed that all debate within the Politburo about American intentions was ended. • On September 29, 1983 Andropov issued an unusual "declaration" on U.S.-U.S.S.R. relations that brought the war scare into sharper public focus: The Soviet leadership deems it necessary to inform the Soviet people, other peoples, and all who are responsible for determining the policy of states, of its assessment of the course pursued in international affairs by the current US administration. In brief, it is a militarist course that represents a serious threat to peace…If anyone had any illusion about the possibility of an evolution for the better in the policy of the present American administration, recent events have dispelled them completely.

43. Soviet Anxiety • Soviet ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly FyodorovichDobryninretells that the last phrase was the pivotal one. • The word "completely" was carefully chosen to express the Politburo's consensus that the U.S.S.R. could not reach any agreement with the Reagan administration. • The consequences of the downing of KAL 007 and killing 269 people increased Soviet anxiety. • Within weeks Soviet intelligence and the Soviet military, almost certainly with the KAL 007 episode in mind, would overreact to a US/NATO military exercise – Abel Archer 83.

44. Soviet Paranoia Reaches a Dangerous Level: • Able Archer 83 was a ten-day NATO command post exercise beginning on November 2, 1983

45. Able Archer 83 • Spanned Western Europe and centered on SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe) situated at Casteau, north of the Belgian city of Mons. • Exercises simulated a period of escalating conflict, culminating in a coordinated nuclear release. • Incorporated a new, unique format of coded communication, radio silence, participation by heads of state, and a simulated DEFCON 1 nuclear alert.

46. Military Exercises • Tense situation: • The real-life simulation of the 1983 exercise • Worsening relations between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. • Upcoming arrival of Pershing II nuclear missiles in Europe • Led many Soviet leaders to think that Able Archer 83 was a feign to obfuscate real preparations to launch a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union. • To counter the imaginary threat, the Soviets prepared their nuclear armaments forces placed aircraft in East Germany and Poland on full alert.

47. Oleg AntonovichGordievsky • The threat lessened with: • Able Archer 83 ending on November 11, 1983 • Disclosures made by Oleg Gordievsky. • Gordievskywas a Colonel of the KGB and its Resident-designate and bureau chief in London • Defected to the U.K. • Became the highest-ranking KGB to seek asylum in the west during the entire Cold War.

48. British SIS (MI6) • During his Danish posting, Gordievsky became disenchanted with his work and his country. • Particularly after the Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring of 1968. • The British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), took note of this • Sent an officer from the British embassy to make contact with Gordievsky • Requested his services as an agent for British intelligence.

49. Gordievsky became much more valuable to the British once he was assigned to the Soviet embassy in London in 1982. He became the KGB’s Resident-designate and was responsible for Soviet intelligence gathering and espionage in the UK.

50. Abel Archer 83 • Regarding Abel Archer 83, Gordievsky provided the text of a Moscow Center directive to all stations on November 5, 1983: Surprise is the key element in the main adversary’s (the United States’) plans and preparations for war in today’s conditions. As a result it can be assumed that the period of time from the moment when the preliminary decision for RYAN (a nuclear first strike) is taken, up to the order to deliver the strike will be of very short duration, possibly 7 -10 days.