BY: Jamal Nasir AS # 127 THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGIONAL PEACE.
Sequence of Presentation • Introduction to Ukraine. • Crimean Peninsula. • On going crisis in Ukraine. • Russian interest and its Role. • European Union’s stance over the issue. • United State’s stance over the issue. • Implications for the regional peace. • Conclusion. • Recommendations & way forward.
Introduction to Ukraine2/3 • Ukraine became independent in 1991. • Ukraine is a unitary state, composed of 24 Oblasts (Provinces). • One autonomous republic Crimea. • Two cities with special status: Kiev, the capital and the largest city of Ukraine and Sevastopol, which houses the Russian Black Sea Fleetunder a leasing agreement. Source: www.countryeconomy.com/demography/population/ukraine
Introduction to Ukraine3/3 • Ukraine is a Republic under a Semi-Presidential system with separate legislative, executive and judicial branches. • Ukraine is a home of 46 million people. • Ukrainian is the official language of Ukraine. • Russian is also widely spoken. Source: www.countryeconomy.com/demography/population/ukraine
Crimean Peninsula 2/4 • Crimea, a Vassal of the Ottoman Empire, was conquered by the Russian Empirein 1783. • Crimea had autonomy within USSRas the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republicfrom 1921 until 1945. • Crimea’s pre 1945 autonomy was re-established with the Crimeansovereignty referendumin 1991. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisis#Background
Crimean Peninsula 3/4 • In 1992 , the Crimean parliamentvoted to hold a referendum to declare independence, while the Russian parliament voted to void the cession of Crimea to Ukraine. • In 1994, after another referendum on the status of Crimea, Russia recognized the status of Crimea as part of Ukraine. • in 1995, Ukraine revoked the Crimean constitution and abolishedthe office of Crimean president. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisis#Background
Crimean Peninsula 4/4 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisis#Background
On going crisis in Ukraine1/4 • Towards the end of 2013, Euromaidan protests began over the issue of the accession of Ukraine to the European Union, which the elected president rejected. • Main cause being that President Yanukovichstruck a deal with President Putin that Russia would buy $15 Billion in Ukrainian bondsand discount gas prices by one third. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution
On going crisis in Ukraine2/4 • The protests escalated in early 2014 and eventually led to deaths of both protesters and police between 18 and 20 February. • The protests led to a compromise deal between the President Yanukovich and the opposition leaders, brokered by the Foreign ministers of France, Poland & Germany. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution
On going crisis in Ukraine3/4 • Crimean parliament, in an extraordinary session proposed that they may call Russian military intervention in Crimea. • An impeachment bill against President Yanukovich was passed in Ukrainian parliament and he left the capital. • Interim setup takes over and leader of the opposition Tymoshenko was released from the judicial custody. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution
On going crisis in Ukraine4/4 • Suspected Russian military forces, without insignias, got hold of the major buildings in Crimea and Sevastopol. • A referendum recently held in Crimea suggested that almost 95% of the voters wanted to re join Russia. • Crimean parliament, on 17th march 2014, declared independence and assumes status of an Autonomous republic willing to be a constituent part of Russia. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution
Russian Interest & Its Role1/3 • Economic interest: • $ 136 Billion Economy. • Trade Gateway to EU countries. • Natural Resources: • Several natural gas fields. • Estimated reserves 21 billion cubic meters.
Russian Interest & Its Role2/3 • Strategic interest: • House of Russian Black Sea Fleet. • Till 2042, Russia is allowed to maintain • 25,000 troops • 24 Artillery systems • 132 armoured vehicles • 22 military planes
Russian Interest & Its Role3/3 • Russian Role in current crisis: • Offer of huge financial package . • Support of ethnic Russians in Crimea. • Support of Pro-Russia regime in Kiev. • Russian Parliament’s decision of military intervention in Crimea. • Putin has signed a treaty and Crimea is now a part of Russia.
European Union’s stance over the issue2/2 • Diplomatic efforts by Germany, France & Poland. • Offer of trade agreements. • Visa sanctions on 21 individuals. • Freezing accounts of main characters involved in crisis. • Relatively weaker pressure on Russia.
United States’s stance over the issue • Putin-Obama 90 minutes phone call. • Imposition of Diplomatic pressure on Russia. • Sending 6 fighter jets in addition to the 4 already to augment the Baltic air policing mission. • Sending 12 F-16 fighters and 300 army personnel in Poland in response to Russian intervention in Crimea. • Visa sanctions and freezing accounts of 11 individuals.
Implications for the Regional Peace1/2 • Unrest in Ukraine is dangerous for European countries. • US and China are on the same page regarding Ukrainian issue. • Ukraine is a buffer zone between Russia and Europe and stability in the region is important for the economic purposes which otherwise can lead to civil unrest in many countries of the region.
Implications for the Regional Peace2/2 • Britain suspends military co-operation with Russia hence worsening the relationship. • Re emergence of cold war era like alliances and re alignments will not only affect the region, but the whole world.
Conclusion Ukrainian crisis is an example of weak and failed diplomatic efforts, weak administration and misuse of executive powers. However, the world, in any case, cannot afford a cold war between the military giants and peace in the region can and should only be restored through negotiations.
Recommendations. • UN should play its role as both Russia and Ukraine are signatories of the charter of the UN. • Strong diplomatic efforts should be made by the direct affectees i-e European countries in order to bring peace to the region. • Sovereignty of both Ukraine and Crimea should be respected by Russia and other regional players.