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Ensemble Forecast Evaluation for Tercile Categories in Southeast Asia

This study compares two observational datasets from the Southeast Asia region during the June-July-August-September period. It evaluates the deterministic skill of the system using ensemble mean and spread techniques. The research explores the relationship between observations and forecast spread, focusing on probability forecasts of terciles and observed tercile categories. Additionally, it analyzes ROC curves for below-normal and above-normal categories, as well as reliability and sharpness diagrams.

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Ensemble Forecast Evaluation for Tercile Categories in Southeast Asia

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  1. South East Asia: Region 0 JJAS

  2. Comparison of two observational datasets

  3. Deterministic assessment of skill of the system using the ensemble mean

  4. Ensemble mean and spread

  5. Comparing observations to the spread of the forecast ensemble

  6. Probability forecasts of terciles and tercile observed

  7. ROC curves for below normal (left) and above normal (right) categories

  8. Reliability and sharpness diagrams

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