“Science, Decision Support Models and Ecosystem Attribute Valuation: An Application to the San Pedro River, Arizona and

1. “Science, Decision Support Models and Ecosystem Attribute Valuation: An Application to the San Pedro River, Arizona and Rio Grande, New Mexico” David Brookshire (UNM) David Goodrich (USDA-ARS) Julie Stromberg (ASU) Jennifer Thacher (UNM) Arriana Brand (USGS) Craig Broadbent (IWU) Mark Dixon (USD) Karl Benedict (UNM) Kevin Lansey (UA) Molly McIntosh (MMC-LLC) Steve Stewart (SAHRA) Prepared for: “Challenges in Integrating (Hydrologic) Science into Urban+ Decision Making”   (April  29  – May 1, 2013, Tucson, AZ). Includes Economists, Biologist, Ecologist, Ornithologist, Hydrologist, Facilitator, Geospatial Engineer Funded by U.S. EPA Environmental Protection Agency (Star grant program), in part by SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Area), and USGS through SILPE (Science Impact Laboratory for Policy and Economics—UNM)

2. EPA

3. San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA) - One of the Last Great Places On Earth(The Nature Conservancy) • SPRNCA formed Nov 18th 1988 • Cattle removal began in 1988 • High degree of connectivity of surface and groundwater systems • Flows north from Cananea, Mexico to the Gila River in Arizona • ~40 miles in length • ~56,000 Acres • A semi-arid flyway • 412 Bird species, with 200+, migrants • One of the most ecologically diverse areas in the world • Riparian vegetation consists of • Cottonwood, Salt Cedar • Mesquite, River Grasses

4. 1984 1998 Restoration: Effects of Cattle Removal in the SPRNCA View from Hereford Bridge • Following cattle removal from SPRNCA in 1988… • Expansion of herbaceous riparian vegetation • Channel narrowing & stabilization • Restoration occurred Photos courtesy of BLM-Files

5. But No Status Quo: Beyond Restoration To Preservation, the Need for a Decision Support System for Adaptive Management Change in aquifer storage • Anthropogenic • Change in Consumptive Use • Anthropogenic

6. Water Polices are Available for the San Pedro to bring in Additional Water? INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES location of subdivisions and groundwater wells recharge basins WATER AUGMENTATION increase the amount of water in the basin by piping it in from other regions WATER CONSERVATION/PRICING decrease the consumption of water in the region What are the benefits and costs of these programs? Calculating the costs is relatively straightforward But what about the benefits of ecosystem services?

7. Interested in a Tool for Finding the Balance: Beyond Restoration Meeting Ecosystem Needs Meeting Human Needs San Pedro Subdivisions San Pedro Riparian Area How to go about an integrated science, and economics framework to find the balance?

8. DSS Tool DSS • Purpose of San Pedro DSS: • to evaluate the benefits and costs of conservation, augmentation, and recharge alternatives (including non-market riparian values) • Incorporates multiple factors: • USGS groundwater model • Surface water supply • Groundwater storage • Residential/commercial water uses (infrastructure, well location) • Simulations up to 50 years • Can vary (e.g.): • populations • location of recharge basin • location of future wells • Generates alternative futures: • BUT-Does not provide or incorporate benefits of ecosystem attributes • THUS-tradeoffs identified are incomplete

9. Characterization of • an Ecosystem • Components • Processes • Outputs Abiotic, Biotic, Geography & Remote Sensing Science Linking Science and Economics: A Foundation for Ecosystem Services Valuation Survey (Education) Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic • Ecosystem • Valuation • Component • (Attributes) • Surface • Water • Birds • Vegetation • Cost Scenario & Social Science Changes Hydrology Component Changes Riparian Component Changes Avian Component Physical Science Plant Science Avian Science DSS (current conditions) Ecosystem Services Demand Curves Integrate Values Into DSS Modeling Science

10. Characterization of • an Ecosystem • Components • Processes • Outputs Science Based Definitions and Ecosystem Attributes Valuation studies are typically not anchored in an integrated science models: • What is needed: • Walk through the forest - what do you know about it? • The forest is pretty etc, but doubtful one knows the mix of vegetation, birds, groundwater levels etc • Without this information cannot decide what you prefer from one area to another • What is needed is science driven ecosystem attribute endpoint “bundles” describing ecosystem services • With the drivers of change clearly defined, • Thus defining change in the system (marginal change of attributes)

11. What Does Economics Require for Valuing Ecosystem Services ? (3 Elements) • Ecosystem componentsof a “Place” • Ecosystem process and functions • Biological, chemical, and physical interactions between ecosystem components of a “place”: 3. Ecological endpoints of a “place” – changes in these are necessary descriptors of the Ecosystem Attribute “bundles” as attributes for Valuation– • These are directly related to human welfare measure • Water flows, vegetation mix and abundance, bird population, abundance and density • There are things your neighbor would understand!

12. SCENARIOS Ground Water Futures (GWF) • GWF1: 0.5 m uniform decline in ground water table • GWF2: 1 m uniform decline in ground water table • GWF3: 0.5 m uniform increase in ground water table • GWF4: Continued and increased agricultural pumping near Palominas; new developments in unincorporated areas of Palominas and Hereford near SPRNCA • GWF5: Increasing cone of depression in Sierra Vista, Ft. Huachuca, and Huachuca City with impacts toward the lower Babocomari and northern SPRNCA • GWF6: Large increases in ground water levels due to recharge and conservation efforts in Sierra Vista and Bisbee • GWF7: Combined from scenarios 4 & 5, representing effects of both agricultural pumping in the south and increasing cone of depression • GWF8: Low extreme-river essentially dries up • GWF9: High extreme-river essentially has surface flows throughout SPRNCA

13. 3. DSS (current conditions) 4. Changes Hydrology Component Alternative Groundwater Scenarios

14. 5. Changes Riparian Component Riparian Model • The model places reaches of the river into one of three condition classes: • Based on 9 bio-indicators (e.g. types of plants) which are sensitive to changes in hydrology. • Each current condition class (e.g. situation today) is reflective of different levels of ecosystem functional capacity. • Model is inside DSS and is used it to track changes in the abundance of each class over time, based upon ground water level changes: • Dry: 73% Tamarisk, 10% Cottonwood-Willow • Intermediate: 21% Tamarisk, 63% Cottonwood-Willow • Wet: No Tamarisk, 89% Cottonwood-Willow Tamarisk

15. 5. Changes Riparian Component 6. Changes Avian Component Avian Model: As riparian changes occur, so goes avian changes

16. Current S3 S2 S1 Condition Class CC1 CC2 CC3 7. Ecosystem Valuation Component (Attributes) Migrating Bird Abundance Changes 25000 23000 21000 Total Abundance (number of birds) 19000 17000 S2 S3 S1 Current Declining Groundwater by Scenario

17. 7. Ecosystem • Valuation • Component • (Attributes) • Surface • Water • Birds • Veg. Placing Values on Ecosystem Services • Development • 1963 NRJ Robert Davis (air quality – USEPA—ORD) • Embodied now in various U.S. Fed. Docs • Contingent Valuation Model (CVM) • Asks individuals their Willingness To Pay (WTP) for a single ecosystem attribute (e.g. greater number of birds) • Choice Modeling (CM) • Asks individuals to choose a specific alternative from a set of Ecosystem Attribute Bundles (e.g. birds, vegetation, surface water)

18. Designing the Surveys: Focus Groups • Focus groups have been conducted using the Choice Experiment (CE) San Pedro Survey • Public Feedback • Wanted more information • Created “Drill Downs” • Changes in presentation of visual material • Indicated what information was most useful • Science Feedback • Reviewed survey for technical accuracy

19. Marginal “Dollar” Values and their Use • What kind of Marginal Dollar Values are generated from Contingent Valuation and Choice Modeling for Ecosystem Endpoints? • Miles of Visibility • Changes in Endangered Species Populations • In this study -- Obtain Marginal Dollar Values (values for incremental changes) for: • Miles of surface water • Breeding birds by nest heights • Breeding birds by surface water dependency • Spring migratory birds • Vegetation diversity

20. 7. Ecosystem • Valuation • Component • (Attributes) • Surface • Water • Birds • Veg. San Pedro/Rio Grande Survey • Survey includes: • Introduction and discussion of riparian zones/focus on groundwater • Background about the San Pedro/Rio Grande • Essentially sets up market information • Development of Ecosystem Services Endpoint Attribute Bundles • Water, Vegetation, and Birds

21. Contingent Valuation Example Current Condition Ask: How much are you willing to pay for Alt. #1 over CC? How much for Alt. #2 over CC? How much for Alt. #2 over Alt. #1 ? Alternate Condition - 1 Alternate Condition - 2

22. Choice Modeling Example - Riparian Preservation Riparian Vegetation % Time SW Is Present Bird Type/Pop. Attributes Attributes Alternate Condition - 1 Bundle #1 < 60% > 60% < 95% Current Condition Bundle #2 Alternate Condition - 2 > 95% Bundle #3 • Decisions points: 1) do nothing 2) maintain CC 3) improve CC • different construction/conservation measures with each decision • Attributes across bundles are NOT independent • Need science ( ) to describe dependence of attributes in a bundle

23. SPRNCA WTP Estimates • WTP to move from the Current Conditions to S6 • Vegetation is the significant variable and the most important variable • Large inc. in recharge, sig. inc. in surface flows • WTP to avoid moving from the Current Conditions to S4 • Water is the significant variable and the bundle of ecosystem services is significant • Involved continual pumping thus degradation

24. Characterization of • an Ecosystem • Components • Processes • Outputs Abiotic, Biotic, Geography & Remote Sensing Science The Scientific Foundation of Ecosystem Services Valuation Survey (Education) Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic • Ecosystem • Valuation • Component • (Attributes) • Surface • Water • Birds • Vegetation • Cost Scenario & Social Science Changes Hydrology Component Changes Riparian Component Changes Avian Component Physical Science Plant Science Avian Science DSS (current conditions) Ecosystem Services Demand Curves Integrate Values Into DSS Modeling Science

25. Horizontal: Transferability science and valuation within a region (e.g. SW)(SP/RG//Verde/Salt/?) (continuing) • A goal is to have a menu of transfer functions for a region • Why– original studies for ALL areas is to expensive • Benefit Transfers: Incremental monetary value of an ecosystem endpoint transferred another site • Science Transfers: The relative science information between the “study and transfer sites” should be “similar” • What we did: • Developed Science for the Rio Grande based upon San Pedro • Developed a Choice / Contingent Valuation Survey • San Pedro • Rio Grande • Compare/Calibrate the Marginal Dollar Values for Ecosystem Attributes (SPRNCA) (MRG)

26. Across Sites within a Region: Using Place Based Science and Valuations Gila River, NM Salt River, AZ San Pedro, AZ Rio Grande, NM We are discussing the following . • Steps: • Calibrate across the original data sets from San Pedro and Grande • Extend San Pedro efforts to upland areas • Relate placed based science to: • Remote sensing information in Salt River and Gila • Within a representative ecosystem, we can use appropriate ecosystem function models • Relying upon remote sensing and GIS technologies • Relate extent of the market for valuation transfer

27. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Secretarial Order No. 3289 establishes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, which are management-science partnerships that inform integrated resource-management actions across landscapes (February 22, 2010). ?

28. Defining the Region of Analysis (for science and valuation):Extending this work into the Lower Mississippi Valley Gila River, NM ? Everglades Salt River, AZ ? Rio Grande, NM ? Hawaii Hypothesis: A national map might be a composite of regional studies, based upon place based science and valuations SPRNCA, AZ

29. Thank You THANK YOU