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Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation forAsian and Pacific Countries
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Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE)
Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation forAsian and Pacific Countries
20~24 March 2006
Scoping a V&A assessment: key questions to ask and issues to consider
Overview of V&A frameworks:options and their application contextsIn the next 40 minutes or so…
Vulnerability is a function of:
The character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed;
Its Sensitivity; and
Its adaptive capacityKey terms:Vulnerability
Direct (e.g., reduction in crop yield caused by increased drought conditions), or indirect (e.g., damage to properties from coastal flooding caused by sea level rise);
Generally, primary production systems (e.g., agriculture, forestry) are much more sensitive to climate variations, compared with most secondary and tertiary sectors (e.g., manufacturing and services)Sensitivity
Wealth, technology, education, institutions, information, infrastructure, “Social capital”
For biological systems, it can be changes in productivity, quality, population, or diversity
For societal systems, an impact can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measures of well-being
Adverse as well as beneficialImpacts of Climate Change
Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent
Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate changeAdaptation (continued)
V&A research and adaptation planning are largely addressing issues associated withanticipatory/planned adaptation.
Different definitions might be used to describe different states of impacts and vulnerability. Therefore, it is important to explicitly specify the context of the definition whenever it is used.
Food production, water supply, health
Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g., extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for people (e.g., excess mortality caused by heat-waves)
Who may be affected?
How far into the future is of concern?
Or is the concern really about current risks (which could be made worse by climate change)?Some questions to ask…
Engaging stakeholders (public awareness campaign)?
Enhancing scientific understanding (a piece of scholarship)?
Designing adaptation strategy or formulating adaptation projects (policy support )?
Some questions to ask… (continued)
Level of technical details;
Treatment of uncertainties;
Format for presenting results
What kind of output/information is expected from the Assessment?
Public awareness materials (e.g., climate scenarios and their potential impacts etc.);
Key vulnerabilities (e.g., risk/vulnerability maps);
A national/sectoral adaptation strategy; or
A combination of the above
Some questions to ask… (continued)
How much time is available?Additional Questions to Ask
You should NOT begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions.
Select methods and models that are mostappropriate for your V&A assessmentThese Questions are Key Factors in Determining How the V&A should be conducted.
Often scenario driven“Top-down” Frameworks
Select the method
Test the method
Assess biophysical and socioeconomic impacts
Assess autonomous adjustments
Evaluate adaptation strategiesThe IPCC “7-Step” Describing the Procedures involved in the “Top-down” Framework
National V&A assessments as reported in the Initial National Communications (INCs) of NAI Parties (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/items/2979.php);
Assessments reported in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCCC (TAR) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm)“Top-down” Frameworks applied in most V&A assessments to date
Scoping and designing an adaptation project
Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation
Assessing current climate risks
Assessing future climate risks
Assessing current and changing socioeconomic conditions
Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
Formulating an adaptation strategy
Continuing the adaptation processUNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)
All these papers are freely available at: http://ncsp.undp.org/resources.asp
Synthesizing existing information and knowledge, undertaking a national consultative process, and setting priorities for adaptation projects to address urgent vulnerabilities;
Followed an “8-step” process to formulate adaptation programme of actionNAPA Guidance
Establish decision-making criteria
Monitor, evaluate, and reviewUKCIP Risk-Uncertainty-Decision-making Framework (continued)
Source: UKCIP, 2003 [http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/RUD_master.pdf]
Sustainable livelihoods (http://www.livelihoods.org)Other Derivations of “Bottom-up” Frameworks
Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs and have different requirements.
What is needed in the long run is a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches, or their elements.Selecting a Framework
Assessing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in multiple sectors;
Applying a wide range of approaches, methods, and tools;
A wealth body of resources available at http://www.aiaccproject.orgA GEF-funded V&A assessment project: AIACC
You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or/and funds; So
Do what you NEED (not what you want!) early on; andFinally, a few points worth remembering…
Select methods and models that are most appropriate for your particular V&A assessment