overview of methodological frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessment n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 40

Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 152 Views
  • Uploaded on

Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation forAsian and Pacific Countries

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment' - gloria-barron


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
overview of methodological frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessment
Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE)

Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation forAsian and Pacific Countries

20~24 March 2006

Jakarta, Indonesia

Xianfu Lu

NCSP, UNDP-UNEP-GEF

Xianfu.lu@undp.org

in the next 40 minutes or so
Key terms:Impacts, Adaptation/adaptive capacity, and Vulnerability

Scoping a V&A assessment: key questions to ask and issues to consider

Overview of V&A frameworks:options and their application contexts

In the next 40 minutes or so…
key terms vulnerability
Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is a function of:

The character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed;

Its Sensitivity; and

Its adaptive capacity

Key terms:Vulnerability
exposure
Exposure
  • Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g.,
    • Population;
    • Natural resources;
    • Infrastructure and property
  • It also includes aspects of climate change that an affected system will face, e.g.,
    • Sea level rise;
    • Temperature warming;
    • Precipitation change;
    • Intensified extreme events
sensitivity
The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by a given climate-related stimuli;

Direct (e.g., reduction in crop yield caused by increased drought conditions), or indirect (e.g., damage to properties from coastal flooding caused by sea level rise);

Generally, primary production systems (e.g., agriculture, forestry) are much more sensitive to climate variations, compared with most secondary and tertiary sectors (e.g., manufacturing and services)

Sensitivity
adaptive capacity
Adaptive Capacity
  • The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences;
  • Determined by the access to:

Wealth, technology, education, institutions, information, infrastructure, “Social capital”

  • The mere possession of adaptive capacity does NOT guarantee that adaptation actually takes place.
impacts of climate change
… is typically the effect of climate change:

For biological systems, it can be changes in productivity, quality, population, or diversity

For societal systems, an impact can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measures of well-being

Adverse as well as beneficial

Impacts of Climate Change
adaptation
“… adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” Adaptation
adaptation continued
Two types of adaptation:

Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent

Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change

Adaptation (continued)

V&A research and adaptation planning are largely addressing issues associated withanticipatory/planned adaptation.

different states of impacts and vulnerability continued
Different States of Impacts and Vulnerability (continued)

Different definitions might be used to describe different states of impacts and vulnerability. Therefore, it is important to explicitly specify the context of the definition whenever it is used.

some questions to ask
What is of concern?

Food production, water supply, health

Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g., extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for people (e.g., excess mortality caused by heat-waves)

Who may be affected?

How far into the future is of concern?

Or is the concern really about current risks (which could be made worse by climate change)?

Some questions to ask…
slide16
For what purpose is the assessment to be conducted?

Engaging stakeholders (public awareness campaign)?

Enhancing scientific understanding (a piece of scholarship)?

Designing adaptation strategy or formulating adaptation projects (policy support )?

Some questions to ask… (continued)

slide18
Who is the targeted end-users of the results of your V&A assessment?

Level of technical details;

Treatment of uncertainties;

Format for presenting results

What kind of output/information is expected from the Assessment?

Public awareness materials (e.g., climate scenarios and their potential impacts etc.);

Key vulnerabilities (e.g., risk/vulnerability maps);

A national/sectoral adaptation strategy; or

A combination of the above

Some questions to ask… (continued)

these questions are key factors in determining how the v a should be conducted
So,

You should NOT begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions.

Select methods and models that are mostappropriate for your V&A assessment

These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How the V&A should be conducted.
types of frameworks
Types of Frameworks
  • Approaches to V&A assessments can be categorized by the
  • subject matter;
  • spatial scale; and
  • chronology
  • of the assessments
the ipcc 7 step describing the procedures involved in the top down framework
Define the problem

Select the method

Test the method

Select scenarios

Assess biophysical and socioeconomic impacts

Assess autonomous adjustments

Evaluate adaptation strategies

The IPCC “7-Step” Describing the Procedures involved in the “Top-down” Framework
top down frameworks applied in most v a assessments to date
U.S. Country Studies Programme (http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/webpage.html);

National V&A assessments as reported in the Initial National Communications (INCs) of NAI Parties (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/items/2979.php);

Assessments reported in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCCC (TAR) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm)

“Top-down” Frameworks applied in most V&A assessments to date
bottom up frameworks
Addressing near-term concerns

Driven by issues identified through stakeholder consultations

Analysis to be conducted as deemed necessary

Application of “informal” analytical techniques

“Bottom-up” Frameworks
bottom up frameworks1
“Bottom-up” Frameworks
  • UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF);
  • NAPA Guidance;
  • UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision-making Framework
undp adaptation policy framework continued
Technical papers on:

Scoping and designing an adaptation project

Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process

Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation

Assessing current climate risks

Assessing future climate risks

Assessing current and changing socioeconomic conditions

Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity

Formulating an adaptation strategy

Continuing the adaptation process

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)

All these papers are freely available at: http://ncsp.undp.org/resources.asp

napa guidance
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to identify immediate & urgent needs for adaptation;

Synthesizing existing information and knowledge, undertaking a national consultative process, and setting priorities for adaptation projects to address urgent vulnerabilities;

Followed an “8-step” process to formulate adaptation programme of action

NAPA Guidance
ukcip risk uncertainty decision making framework continued
Identify problem and objectives

Establish decision-making criteria

Assess risk

Identify options

Appraise options

Make decision

Implement decision

Monitor, evaluate, and review

UKCIP Risk-Uncertainty-Decision-making Framework (continued)

Source: UKCIP, 2003 [http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/RUD_master.pdf]

other derivations of bottom up frameworks
VARA (Vulnerability and Response Assessment for Climate Variability and Change (http://public.ornl.gov/vara/ )

Sustainable livelihoods (http://www.livelihoods.org)

Other Derivations of “Bottom-up” Frameworks
selecting a framework
No particular framework can be recommended without a specific context

Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs and have different requirements.

What is needed in the long run is a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches, or their elements.

Selecting a Framework
a gef funded v a assessment project aiacc
24 projects in Africa, Asia & Pacific, Latin America & the Caribbean (including 6 projects in the Region: China, Fiji & Cook Islands, Indonesia-Philippines, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Thailand/countries sharing the Mekong River Basin);

Assessing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in multiple sectors;

Applying a wide range of approaches, methods, and tools;

A wealth body of resources available at http://www.aiaccproject.org

A GEF-funded V&A assessment project: AIACC
finally a few points worth remembering
Projects often take longer and cost more than originally thought (or proposed);

You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or/and funds; So

Do what you NEED (not what you want!) early on; and

Finally, a few points worth remembering…
slide40
You should NOT begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions.

Select methods and models that are most appropriate for your particular V&A assessment

Once again…