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Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting September 4, 2014

Economic Update. Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting September 4, 2014. Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor. Annual Research Progress Report (TEGL 29-12).

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Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting September 4, 2014

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  1. Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council MeetingSeptember 4, 2014 Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

  2. Annual Research Progress Report (TEGL 29-12) d. Annual performance report (TEGL 29-12). Grantees must submit an annual performance report to their ETA regional office that summarizes all grantee activities, and lists the core deliverables and activities shown below, in the order indicated. i. Workforce information database (WIDb) ii. Industry and occupational projections iii. Annual economic analysis and other reports iv. Customer consultations v. Activities undertaken to meet customer needs vi. New tools and resources vii. Efforts to create and support partnerships and collaborations viii. Activities to leverage LMI-WI funding ix. Recommendations to ETA for changes and improvements to WIGS requirements

  3. 2012-2022 Long-term Projections • Entry Level • Competitive Level New this year! -More sophisticated Educational Attainment Coding.

  4. Three Derivatives of Change • 1st Derivative - Economy expanding month-to-month (seasonally adjusted) - occurred in 2009 • 2nd Derivative – Economy expanding year-over-year – occurred in 2011 • 3rd Derivative - Economy at pre-recession levels – occurring in 2014

  5. Prerecession Level - 3rd Derivative • Next Derivative of Change – The “R” word. Forecast

  6. Comparative unemployment rates with recessions – U3 (seasonally adjusted)

  7. Labor Underutilizaton (U1- U6) U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force; U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force; U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers; U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

  8. Labor Underutilizaton (U1- U6)

  9. Labor Underutilizaton (U1- U6)

  10. Labor Underutilizaton (U3/U6) Healthy Range

  11. Unemployment Insurance Claims

  12. Sector Analysis

  13. Building Permits

  14. Population

  15. Labor Force

  16. Labor Force Participation

  17. 2012-2022 Long-term Projections Total Employment- Past, Present and Future 11% 16% Nation • Total employment is projected to grow by 15.6 million jobs from 2012 to 2022, a percentage change of 10.8%, or 1.0% annualized. • 2002 to 2012, 3.1 million were added, 2.2% growth over 10 years, 0.2% annually. • Idaho • Total employment projected to add 109,000 jobs, 16% over the decade, 1.5 % annualized. • Idaho had only 37,000 more jobs in 2012 than in 2002 thanks in large part to the Great Recession, translating to 5.8% increase over the decade.

  18. 2012-2022 Long-term Projections Occupation Jobs Projections: • Over 30% of total increase will fill Office and Administrative Support, Food Preparation and Serving Related, and Sales and Related occupations. • Construction and extraction occupations will increase 9,000 (27%), ranks first in growth rate. • Healthcare Practitioners and Technical growth of 25%, second fastest. IndustryJobs Projections: • Increase 109,000 (16%) over ten years • 18,000 (20%) more jobs in goods producing (excluding agriculture) • Rebound of the industry contributes to 12,000 (39%) in construction • Service Sector jobs growth of 86,000 (17%) • Health care and social assistance adds 22,000 (27%) jobs

  19. Population and Jobs Projections from 2012 to 2022-Viewed from a “Net” Perspective-

  20. Projections for Population and Jobs Added from 2012 to 2022 109,000 Jobs

  21. Projections for Population and Jobs Added from 2012 to 2022 109,000 Jobs

  22. Population and Jobs Projections from 2012 to 2022-Viewed from a “Gross” Perspective- Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) * 15 to 64 Cohort – would need a LFPR of 85% * 15 to 69 Cohort – would still need a LFPR of 78% Current LFPR is around 64% Multiple Job Holder Rate (MJHR) * Or just triple the MJHR to around 18% Current MJHR is around 6%

  23. Projections for Population and Jobs Added from 2012 to 2022 95,230 Workforce Gap

  24. Real-Time Labor Statistics New Hire and Job Listings Data Conference Board, Seasonally Adjusted Job Ads – August 2014

  25. Job Listing Activity - Idaho Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  26. Real-Time Labor Statistics New Hire and Job Listings Data New Tableau Data Analytics Tool • Service related Jobs continue to grow, goods producing jobs are starting to cool down. • https://public.tableausoftware.com/views/NewHires_1/NewHiresTrend?:embed=y&:display_count=no

  27. National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycles Analysis and the “R” word! Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  28. Thank You! Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov 208.332.3570 ext. 3217

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