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Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting November 15, 2012

Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting November 15, 2012. Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor. Idaho Gross Domestic Product. Idaho Gross Domestic Product. 2013. $60 Billion. 2016. At the nation’s current GDP growth rate that is estimated

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Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting November 15, 2012

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  1. Economic UpdateIdaho Workforce Development Council MeetingNovember 15, 2012 Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

  2. Idaho Gross Domestic Product

  3. Idaho Gross Domestic Product 2013 $60 Billion 2016 At the nation’s current GDP growth rate that is estimated at around 2%, Idaho could realize just over $59 B in 2012.

  4. Unemployment Rates and the Labor Force

  5. Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (9.6%) Previous Record Dec-1982 to Feb-1983 7.8 % 7.1 % September 2012 (2.7%) Nov-2006 to Mar-2007

  6. Idaho Regional Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates – September 2012

  7. Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

  8. Alternative Unemployment Measures

  9. Idaho U3 and U6 Unemployment Rates-as a percent-

  10. Idaho’s U3 as a Percent of the U6 Unemployment Rate

  11. Employment Data from UI Tax Information • Robust - Yet six to nine months outdated!

  12. National Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2011

  13. National Employment Y-o-Y 2nd Qtr. 2011

  14. National Employment Y-o-Y 3rd Qtr. 2011

  15. National Employment Y-o-Y 4th Qtr. 2011

  16. National Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2012

  17. Construction Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2011 -9.1%

  18. Construction Employment Y-o-Y 2nd Qtr. 2011 -4.8%

  19. Construction Employment Y-o-Y 3rd Qtr. 2011 -5.6%

  20. Construction Employment Y-o-Y 4th Qtr. 2011 -1.2%

  21. Construction Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2012 -0.2%

  22. Current Employment Data from Surveys • Current (last month) - Yet subject to revisions!

  23. Idaho Non-Farm JobsYear-Over-Year Percentage Change – September 2012

  24. Idaho New-Hire Data

  25. Idaho New-Hire Counts by Month

  26. Industry and Occupational Projections • Evaluating past and current projections!

  27. Industry and Occupational Projections • STP - 2009 to 2011 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .30%. • Underestimated Non-farm Jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 140 Jobs (off by .023%). • STP - 2010 to 2012 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .33%. • Growth expected to exceed our original projection, on pace for around .75%) • STP - 2011 to 2013 – Jobs are projected to grow annually at 1.2%. • If things continue with slow modest growth we are on pace for 1.2% annualized growth. That being said, in 2013 there are many potential economic hurdles yet to be faced. • LTP - 2010 to 2020 – Jobs projected to grow at 1.7%. • Way to soon to estimate but existing economic conditions suggest we are on track to realize this projection.

  28. Real-Time Job Listings Data from Internet Scraping • Current Job Listings – subject to some duplication and trolling!

  29. Idaho’s October Historical Job Listing ActivityHelp Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  30. Idaho’s October Top 25 Occupational Job Listings Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  31. Regional Analysis using Help Wanted On-line Tool!

  32. Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  33. CDA - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  34. Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  35. Lewiston - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  36. Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  37. Boise MSA - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  38. Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  39. Twin Falls - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  40. Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  41. Pocatello - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  42. Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  43. Idaho Falls - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

  44. Northern Idaho

  45. Northern Idaho - continued 7,800 total net jobs lost from 2007-2011 - Over half of the jobs lost were in Construction - Over 5,600 annual net jobs lost in 2009 - Nearly 1,500 net jobs lost in 2010 - 160 net jobs lost in 2011 After three years of not seeing year-over-year gains, North Idaho finally crawled out of the depths of the most recent economic contraction!

  46. Northern Idaho - continued • Manufacturing • - - Wood Product MFG. heading in positive direction • Backlogs filling up • Increase in Job Openings Health Care - Added 1,000 jobs since 2007 - 1,500 job in 2011 - Fastest growing industry - Aging Workforce = Job Opportunities Shining Stars Mining - Metal Prices up - 190 jobs gained since 2009 - Canada’s #1 Import

  47. North Central Idaho • Manufacturing -  The manufacturing sector is showing new vibrance.  Manufacturing jobs are back above their pre-recession level of 4,060. • Health care - including hospitals and nursing homes–pulled back a bit this year.  Some changes in federal reimbursement, and reduced demand by locals.  The long-term prospects are bright. • Construction remains a major drag, but there are some signs that will change in the next year.

  48. South Central Idaho • Manufacturing (+360) • Manufacturing was a winner over the last five years up 4.6 percent or 360 jobs regionally relative to the state’s decline of 16 percent. • Healthcare and Social Assistance (+724) • This highly profiled industry saw the most growth in Blaine and Twin Falls counties where the St. Luke’s effect supported growth to the tune of 22.7 percent and 15 percent, respectively -outperforming the state at 14.2 percent.

  49. South-Eastern Idaho - Evidence of recovery can be found in the number of job openings posted with the Idaho Department of Labor in Southeast Idaho. In 2011 the region experienced a sharp rebound in job openings as the number vacancies rose to 7,012. Given the current trend 2012 is expected to see more total openings than the year before. South-Eastern Idaho has withstood the recent recession better than the other regions of the state. Currently, southeastern Idaho has the state’s second lowest regional unemployment rate, just one-tenth of a percent behind Eastern Idaho, at 6.1 percent in September. Three major factors are responsible for the lower than average unemployment in the area. The presence of the Idaho National Laboratory and Idaho State University stabilize the area economy.

  50. Eastern Idaho • It looks like 2012 will produce more job openings on IdahoWorks than we had in 2007. The only thing that could stop it is a really poor holiday hiring season which isn’t in the forecast.

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