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Understanding Election Dynamics in U.S. Politics

This course provides a comprehensive study of political events in the United States government, focusing on congressional institutions, election analysis, and the impact of name recognition and money in campaigns. Explore why incumbents frequently win elections, the factors contributing to incumbents' losses, and the significance of open seat elections. Gain insights into the historical perspective of elections and the influence of key factors like issues, the economy, and midterm elections. Delve into the outcomes of recent House and Senate elections and the implications for future political landscapes.

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Understanding Election Dynamics in U.S. Politics

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  1. The Congress II 10/26/2011

  2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form • Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: • discuss and critically analyze political events in the United States government • identify and explain the role of formal (congressional) institutions and their effect on policy. • assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

  3. Office Hours and Readings • Chapter 8 on Congress • Office Hours • Thursday 8-10 • Monday 8-10:30

  4. The Three Things You Need Getting Elected

  5. Name Recognition We Do not Vote for Nobodies

  6. Name Recognition • To Be Known, is to be known favorably • Media focuses on known candidates • Means more money spent elswehere

  7. Who Has Name Recognition • Incumbents • Lower Level office holders • Prominent people in the community

  8. Who Has Name Recognition: Born into it

  9. Actors • From the Love Boat • From the Dukes of Hazzard • Stuart Smalley

  10. Athletes Good Bad

  11. Running for Congress is not Free Money

  12. You need to raise and spend money • There is no public money available • It keeps getting more expensive • Winning a seat • 1.1 Million in the House • 6.5 Million in the Senate

  13. Why So Expensive? • Television • Travel • The War Chest

  14. Where You Get it • People • Pacs • Party/other

  15. Spend other People’s money

  16. Outspend My Challenger

  17. Money may not be the most important thing in a campaign, but it is a close second to what ever is

  18. Incumbency

  19. Incumbency • It is a great job, and you want to keep it • Incumbency gives you both money and name recognition

  20. Why Do Incumbents Win?: Money • People don’t give money to losers • You want a Return on Investment

  21. Why Do Incumbents Win? • Gerrymandering in the House • Name Recognition in House and Senate • Credit Claiming on bills

  22. Why do incumbents win: Constituency Services • Helping out the people back home • Earmarks • Traditional Service

  23. Why Incumbents Win: Homestyle • We vote for people like us • We vote for people we trust • You have to learn to match the district

  24. You Can’t Beat Somebody with no body • Weak Challengers • People Who Spend their own money • They Run Unopposed

  25. House Reelection Rates

  26. Senate Reelection Rates

  27. The Senate historically has lower rates of reelection, why?

  28. Why Do Incumbents lose?

  29. Scandal

  30. Why Else do you lose • Redistricting • National Trends and Coat-tails • Out of Touch/Too Old • First Re-election bid

  31. The Real battles Open Seats

  32. What Creates an Open Seat • Reapportionment in the House • Strategic Retirements – Win>Not Run>Lose • Ambition

  33. Open Seat Elections • Home of the Real Fights • Parties and Pacs pour in money • Parties believe if they can win, they can keep the seat forever • Strategic Candidates

  34. A Good year for the Republicans 2010

  35. A Historical Perspective

  36. Factor 1: Who isn’t there No Bush No Obama

  37. Factor 2: Issues favored the GOP • Economy Trumps Everything and GOP has the Edge • Health Care is a push • No One Cares about Afghanistan

  38. Midyears as Referendum on the Economy

  39. Factor 3: Mid Year Elections Serve as Referendums on the President • President Obama is not unpopular (e.g. Bush 2006) • But he is not popular either (e.g. Clinton 1998) • The Result is the Dems lose seats

  40. Factor 4: Midyear Elections favor the Outparty • Turnout decreases among president’s party • Bandwagon effect is less among independents • Angry voters more than satisfied voters

  41. The House Results • GOP Gets • 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) • 30 of 42 Tossups • 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

  42. The Senate Results • The Democrats Hold • The Tea Party takes 3 seats, but loses 3 other

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