USMEF “New Cuts” Seminar. Carcass Utilization: The “New” Japan Market. Brett Stuart Director of Trade Analysis Omaha, Nebraska November 29, 2005. BSE Impact on Japan Beef Market. Eating less, yet paying more Losers: N. America, domestic industry. Source: ALIC, USMEF.
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The “New” Japan Market
Director of Trade Analysis
November 29, 2005
Source: ALIC, USMEF
Japan BSE 9/01
US BSE 12/03
… but not to Japanese meat supplies
“Methodology and Results of the Value of Beef Exports Analysis, USMEF, 2002
These 7 cuts only represent 15% (87 pounds) of red meat per carcass
_____ (fill in the blank) % of steer/heifer slaughter?
Keep inmind: ONLY 2.4% of U.S. beef production was exported to Japan in 2003
-- Cuts are KEY! --
Source: Cattle-Fax, USMEF
Source: USDA, ALIC, USMEF; US price includes frt and 38.5% duty
Source: ALIC, Trader’s Price
The question to ask yourself is: “What will short plates, tongues, etc, be worth when the market opens?”
Shoulder clod, Ball tip, knuckle
Source: USDA, USMEF
USMEF Estimate: 4-5 years to recover to 2003 levels
* 127 million total population in 2005, 4% vegetarian
Source: Cattle-Fax, USDA, USMEF