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WP 4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

1st Annual Meeting. MACROES. Paris, 9-11 May 2011. WP 4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. WP4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. WP4 main objectives: --- Use the MACROES modelling framework to study the effects of anthropogenic

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WP 4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

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  1. 1st Annual Meeting MACROES Paris, 9-11 May 2011 WP 4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

  2. WP4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification WP4 main objectives: --- Use the MACROES modelling framework to study the effects of anthropogenic emissions (greenhouse gases, aerosols) through climate change and ocean acidification on the marine ecosystems (incl. fish ressources) --- A particular emphasis will be given to the identification and characterization of the feedbacks between the different (natural) systems considered here (climate, biogeochemical cycles, marine ecosystems) WP4 structure: --- 4.1 Impact of CC and OA on marine ecosystems: end-to-end --- 4.2 Retroactions in the coupled system - Top-down control from higher to lower trophic levels - Biophysical coupling through heat trapping and bio-induced turbulence --- 4.3 Impact of CC and OA on marine ecosystems: biodiversity

  3. WP4: Climate Change and Ocean Acidification Les simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC Le système de Modélisation Système Terre de l’IPSL Quelques résultats avec IPSL-CM5

  4. Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC CMIP5 Simulations: Long-term simulations (~100 simulations)

  5. Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC CMIP5 Simulations: Long-term simulations (~100 simulations)

  6. Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC CMIP5 Simulations: Long-term simulations (~100 simulations)

  7. Simulations CMIP5 pour l’IPCC Nouveaux scénarios pour IPCC-AR5 (RCP = Representative Concentration Pathways) Simulations réalisées cet été à l’IPSL simulations longues RCP (1860-2100) (simulations décennales (1970-2030) : à discuter)

  8. NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL IPSL Earth System Model

  9. NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL IPSL Earth System Model : Standard Version

  10. NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL IPSL Earth System Model : Resolution? Atmospheric Physics? IPSL-CM5A IPSL-CM5B

  11. NEMO-PISCES dans le modèle Système Terre de l’IPSL • PISCES coupled to IPSL Climate Model • Resolution: 2°x2°cos(f) • Simulations from 1860 to 2100 • forced only by GHGs & aerosols • Fluvial inputs / • Dust deposition remain constant

  12. Premiers Résultats avec CM5 850 RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 Historical 650 450 Climate Change impact on surface chlorophyll 250 6.0 DT (°C) 3.0 CO2, DT et chlorophylle de surface 0.0 0.19 0.17 Chl de surface (mgChl/m3) 0.15

  13. Premiers Résultats avec CM5 Climate Change Impact on surface chlorophyll : gyre extension

  14. Comparaison avec d’autres modèles couplés IPSL MPIM Climate Change impact on marine productivity Changes in NPP in 2100 (SRES-A2) CCSM-1 CCSM-4 (Steinacher et al. 2009)

  15. Acidification : Impact du CO2aq sur les rapports C/N de la Matière Organique • NEMO-PISCES • pCO2 from RCP8.5 • C/N = f(pCO2) • Circulation unchanged Tagliabue et al. GBC accepted

  16. Acidification : Impact du CO2aq sur les rapports C/N de la Matière Organique • NEMO-PISCES • pCO2 from RCP8.5 • Circulation unchanged Tagliabue et al. GBC accepted

  17. Changement climatique et productivité marine Climate Change impact on marine productivity - Evaluation of simulated Chl / NPP (Schneider et al. 2009) (modelled PP vs SeaWifs PP)

  18. Changement climatique et productivité marine Climate Change impact on marine productivity Changes in NPP in 2100 (Scenario SRES-A2) IPSL-PISCES NPP in 2000

  19. Changement climatique et productivité marine Climate Change impact on marine productivity : mechanisms Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001, Doney et al. 2006

  20. Changement climatique et productivité marine Climate Change impact on marine productivity : mechanisms Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001, Doney et al. 2006

  21. Etapes / Stratégie pour le WP4 End-to-End Etape 1 M12 : Simulations “offline” sur 1860-2100 (RCP8.5) IPSL-CM  PISCES-APECOSM M18 : Analyse de l’impact du CC (et OA) sur les écosystèmes Etape 2 M24: Mise en place de PISCES-APECOSM dans IPSL-CM Simulations “Online” 2000-2100 avec PISCES et PISCES/APECOSM M24 : Importance du top-down control dans un contexte de CC Etape 3 M42: Simulations “offline” sur 2000-2100 (biodiversité) IPSL-CM  PISCES-APECOSM-DEB/Biodiv (?) M48: Analyse de ces simulations

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