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Chapter Six. Measuring Market Opportunities. Keys to Good Forecasting. Make assumptions explicit Then debate the assumptions, not the forecast itself Collect data to verify or refute the assumptions Use multiple methods Top down Bottom up.

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chapter six

Chapter Six

Measuring Market Opportunities

keys to good forecasting
Keys to Good Forecasting
  • Make assumptions explicit
    • Then debate the assumptions, not the forecast itself
    • Collect data to verify or refute the assumptions
  • Use multiple methods
    • Top down
    • Bottom up
what are the advantages and limitations of the six main evidence based forecasting methods
What are the advantages and limitations of the six main evidence-based forecasting methods?
  • Statistical methods
  • Observation
  • Surveys
  • Analogy
  • Judgment
  • Market tests
chain ratio forecasts
Chain Ratio Forecasts

(1) Reduced from actual response of 70%. See Exh. 6.2.

what questions should informed users of marketing research ask before approving a study
What questions should informed users of marketing research ask, before approving a study?
  • What are the research objectives? Will the proposed study meet them?
  • Are the data sources appropriate? Secondary or primary? Qualitative or quantitative?
  • Is the research itself well designed?
  • Are the planned analyses appropriate?
chapter seven

Chapter Seven

Targeting Attractive Market Segments

three kinds of market segmentation criteria
Three Kinds of Market Segmentation Criteria
  • Demographic
    • Reflects who the customers are
  • Geographic
    • Reflects where the customers are
  • Behavioral
    • Reflects how they behave in this usage category
  • Geo-demographic YAWYLVALS
how should we decide which segments to target

Market

Attractiveness

High

(8-10)

l

Moderate

(4-7)

Low

(0-3)

Low

(0-3)

Moderate

(4-7)

High

(8-10)

Company’s Competitive Position

l

= Market attractiveness and competitive position of distance runners segment

How should we decide which segments to target?
slide10
Exhibit 7.9Implications of Alternative Positions Within the Market-Attractiveness/Competitive-Position Matrix

Competitive Position

Weak

Strong

Medium

  • Desirable Potential Target
  • Protect position:
  • Invest to grow at max. digestible rate
  • Concentrate on maintaining strength
  • Build selectively:
  • Spec. in limited strengths
  • Seek to overcome weak.
  • Withdraw if indications of sustainable growth are lacking
  • Desirable Potential Target
  • Invest to build:
  • Challenge for leadership
  • Build selectively on strengths
  • Reinforce vulnerable areas

High

  • Limited expansion or harvest:
  • Look for ways to expand w/out high risk; otherwise min. invest. and focus operations
  • Desirable Potential Target
  • Build selectively:
  • Emphasize profitability by increasing productivity
  • Build up ability to counter competition
  • Manage for earnings:
  • Protect existing strengths
  • Invest to improve position only in areas where risk is low

Med.

Market Attractiveness

  • Divest:
  • Sell when possible to maximize cash value
  • Meantime, cut fixed costs & avoid further investment
  • Manage for earnings:
  • Protect position
  • Minimize investment
  • Protect and refocus:
  • Defend strengths
  • Seek ways to increase current earnings without speeding market’s decline

Low

Sources: Adapted from George S. Day, Analysis for Strategic Market Decisions (St. Paul: West, 1986), p. 204; D. F. Abell and J. S. Hammond, Strategic Market Planning Problems and Analytical Approaches (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1979); and S. J. Robinson, R. E. Hitchens, and D. P. Wade, “The Directional Policy Matrix: Tool for Strategic Planning,” Long Range Planning 11 (1978), pp. 8-15.