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Advancements in Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System: Past Achievements & Future Developments

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS), covering the achievements and quality of its products in the past decade. It also outlines the components and developments expected in the next ten years, including advancements in operational oceanography, observing systems, and forecasting models. The text delves into the data collection methods, numerical modeling techniques, and end-user applications such as downstream services. Furthermore, it discusses the challenges ahead, such as sustainable monitoring networks, data assimilation, ensemble predictions, and re-analyses for the past century. Overall, the goal is to engage users in forecast assessment through downstream services and enhance the understanding of the Mediterranean Sea's dynamics.

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Advancements in Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System: Past Achievements & Future Developments

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  1. The Mediterranen Forecasting System: 10 years of developments(and the next ten)N.Pinardi INGV, Bologna, Italy

  2. OUTLINE • MOON: the EuroGOOS Mediterranean ROOS and the Operational Oceanography components • The Observing system achievements • The forecasting system achievements and the quality of the products • The next ten years of developments

  3. The components of operationaloceanography in the Mediterranean Sea:1995-today Numerical models of hydrodynamics and biochemistry at basin scale RT Observing System satellite SST, SLA, VOS-XBT, moored multiparametric buoys, ARGO and gliders End-User applications - Downstream services Numerical models for shelf and coastal areas

  4. LARGE SCALE SHELF SCALE • REPEATED MULTIPARAMETRIC SECTIONS •  SATELLITE AND AERIAL SURVEYS •  COASTAL RADARS •  AUTONOMOUS UNDERWATER • VEHICLES • CABLED MULTIPARAMETRIC STATIONS •  RIVER RUNOFF AND LOADING • MONITORING • SEDIMENT/WQ MONITORING •  MOORED BUOY ARRAYS •  SOOP EXPANDABLE AND ONDULATING INSTRUMENTS • SATELLITE SENSING: • SEA LEVEL, • SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, • SEA SURFACE SALINITY, • COLOR, WINDS •  DRIFTING BUOYS • (SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE) •  GLIDERS OBSERVING SYSTEM • MODEL PHYSICS • Non-Hydrostatic (<1- 5 KM) •  TURBULENCE AND LIGHT • SUBMODELS MODEL PHYSICS  PRIMITIVE EQUATION (> 1-5 KM)  TURBULENCE CLOSURE SUBMODELS DATA ASSIMILATION  KALMAN FILTERS  ADJOINT MODELS • DATA ASSIMILATION • OPTIMAL INTERPOLATION • 3-DVAR, KALMAN FILTER BIOCHEMICAL MODELS  PELAGIC COMPARTMENT  BENTHIC CLOSURE BIOCHEMICAL MODELS  PELAGIC COMPARTMENT  BENTHIC-PELAGIC COUPLING  SEDIMENT DYNAMICS MODELING SYSTEM • ATMOSPHERIC FORCING • OPERATIONAL ANALYSES AND FORECASTS FROM LARGE SCALE MODELS • ATMOSPHERIC FORCING • OPERATIONAL ANALYSES AND FORECASTS FROM LIMITED AREA MODELS

  5. MOON data collection: coverage for the 2004-2008 period gliders M3A Buoy ARGO SOOP

  6. MOON data collection system:Coastal and shelf stations in real time Everydayhourly data to validate the analysis and the forecast

  7. MyOcean V1 MFS system: Dec. 15, 2010 upgrade • MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting system) • Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km • Vert res: 72 unevenly spaced levels • Lateral open boundary condition in the Atlantic: nesting in Mercator global model • Coupled wave-current model for wind drag coefficient • 2) Biochemical pelagic forecasting system • (OGS) • Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km • Vertical res: 72 unevenly spaced levels • Coupling with MyOcean physics • 10 days forecast every three days

  8. MFS analyses: 10 years of quality increase MOM1.1 +SOFA OPA8.2 +SOFA (sys2b) OPA8.2 +3DVAR (sys3a2) NEMO+3DVAR (sys4a) SEA LEVEL in the Mediterranean 1999 rmse 2009

  9. MFS forecast skill against persistence at the surface Forecast -persistence Temperature RMSE error (deg C) Forecast - analysis Forecast days

  10. The MFS users: Limited area sub-basin, shelf scale models Domain overlaps and in-situ distribution

  11. The next ten years problems • Sustainable and innovative monitoring network at large and shelf/coastal scales • Coupled current-waves and atmosphere-ocean models • Data assimilation for all observational sensors, and for coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled physics and pelagic biochemistry models • Ensemble predictions and re-casting of forecast in probabilistic terms • Re-analyses at high resolution for the past 100 years • Involve users in forecast assessment through donwstream services

  12. The sustainable ocean observatory and laboratory: food, transport, energy and environmental monitoring together An artist view of the Ocean integrated Laboratory and Observatory It can be ‘relocatable’ and adaptive!

  13. Assimilation of gliders observations: large improvements from repeated, across shelf tracks Along path daily averaged glider observations Model without Glider assimilation Model with Glider assimilation

  14. Ensemble predictions: now the first prototypes Initial condition spread Sea Surface Height 10-th fcst day spread Initial condition ensemble spread has amplified at the 10 fcst day in mesoscale regions

  15. In conclusions ERROR: to hear the sea sound you have first to download quicktime and then download the forecast!

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