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Evaluation of the Simulated Ocean Response to Hurricane Ivan in Comparison to High-Quality Ocean Observations. George Halliwell , Nick Shay Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami, Miami, FL William Teague Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS.

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Evaluation of the Simulated Ocean Response to Hurricane Ivan in Comparison to High-Quality Ocean Observations

George Halliwell, Nick Shay

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

University of Miami, Miami, FL

William Teague

Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS

goals
Improve ocean model response to TC forcing in a complex oceanographic environment

Improve coupled TC prediction models

Especially intensity forecasts

Improve hindcasts of the ocean response during and after individual storms

e.g., oil and gas industry

Improve our scientific understanding of the ocean response to TC forcing

GOALS
ocean model improvement
Ocean models still require evaluation and improvement of TC response

Requires high-quality observations

Requirements

Accurate initialization

Ocean features (currents, warm- and cold-core eddies)

Vertical T, S, density structure

Ocean Heat Content (OHC) distribution

Improve air-sea flux parameterizations

Improve vertical mixing

Ocean Model Improvement
approach
Evaluate HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) against high-quality ocean observations

Future ocean component of HWRF model

Uncoupled ocean response simulations

Isolate ocean model sensitivity given constant forcing

Will complement evaluation of the coupled HWRF model

Initial Focus - Hurricane Ivan (Sept. 2004)

Initial OHC distribution important to SST response

High-quality ADCP velocity moorings

Naval Research Laboratory SEED project

APPROACH
observed sst response to ivan
Observed SST Response to Ivan

Microwave satellite

(Remote Sensing Systems)

AVHRR (Walker et al, 2005)

hurricane ivan simulations 1
Gulf of Mexico domain

10 Sept. to 6 Oct. 2004

Initial and boundary conditions

Ocean nowcast-forecast system

Alternative to feature-based analysis

Several products available or under development

Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE)

Test the U. S. Navy system

Under development by NOPP consortium

Couples HYCOM to the NCODA assimilation system

Hurricane Ivan Simulations (1)
hurricane ivan simulations 2
Forcing

Navy 0.5-degree NOGAPS atmospheric model

Wind speed blended with higher resolution fields obtained from the NOAA/HRD HWIND product

Wind stress calculated using Powell cd

Hurricane Ivan Simulations (2)
ivan analysis
Importance of accurate initialization

Evaluate ocean data assimilative hindcast

U.S. Navy ocean nowcast-forecast system (HYCOM-NCODA)

Sensitivity to vertical mixing parameterization

K-Profile Parameterization (KPP)

Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 closure (MY)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

Ocean current response

ADCP moorings in north-central Gulf of Mexico

Ivan Analysis
ivan analysis14
Importance of accurate initialization

Evaluate ocean data assimilative hindcast

U.S. Navy ocean nowcast-forecast system (HYCOM-NCODA)

Sensitivity to vertical mixing parameterization

K-Profile Parameterization (KPP)

Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 closure (MY)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

Ocean current response

ADCP moorings in north-central Gulf of Mexico

Ivan Analysis
ivan analysis17
Importance of accurate initialization

Evaluate ocean data assimilative hindcast

U.S. Navy ocean nowcast-forecast system (HYCOM-NCODA)

Sensitivity to vertical mixing parameterization

K-Profile Parameterization (KPP)

Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 closure (MY)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

Ocean current response

ADCP moorings in north-central Gulf of Mexico

Ivan Analysis
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summary
Summary
  • Accurate initialization of the Loop Current, detached warm eddy, and two cold eddies by an ocean nowcast product was critically important to the Ivan ocean response simulations
    • Cannot forget cold ocean features
  • Response is sensitive to vertical mixing parameterization
    • Three-dimensional dynamical processes are important
  • Good qualitative comparison between observed and simulated currents at SEED moorings
    • Simulated near-inertial currents decay too rapidly
  • Ocean model improvement will require high-quality three-dimensional ocean observations
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